Gold & Silver Cycles & Ranges Reinforce 2021/22 Outlook; Gold Fulfills Upside.
05/11/22 The Bridge – Gold, Silver, Cycles, Waves & Ranges – “Gold & Silver are breaking below additional support levels, reinforcing the significance of the March 7 – 11, ‘22 cycle high while slowly adding clarity to the next related cycle in Aug/Sept ‘22. As a result, it is important to place recent action in the context of the broader cycles and wave structure…
In late-2021 and early-2022, metals were projected to experience strong rallies into late-Feb ‘22 (later extended to early-March ‘22) when a convincing convergence of weekly & monthly cycle highs converged and should time an important top.
(They were forecast to subsequently set another multi-month peak in Aug/Sept ‘22 with a sharp decline in between.)
Expectations for a late-Feb/early-March ’22 peak were the result of a contrasting cycle low – projected to hold for 3 – 6 months or longer – in late-Sept/early-Oct ‘21… and many related indicators and cycles.
Metals had bottomed in late-Sept ‘21, fulfilling a myriad of cycle lows including Silver’s ~6-month high (Sept ’19) – low (Mar ’20) – low (Sept ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept ’21) Cycle Progression.
Coinciding with, and corroborating, that cycle low was range support (~1680/GC) and the wave structure of Gold. The monthly trend structure in Gold concurred. During its decline from Aug ‘20 into Mar ‘21, Gold had neutralized its monthly uptrend multiple times but did not reverse that trend down.
As a result, Gold was arguing for a rally back to (at least) its Aug ‘20 peak (2060 – 2080/GC, depending on contract) where it would fulfill that monthly trend signal by setting a new high.
Elliott Wave Structure
That is also what the Elliott Wave structure was showing (as detailed on the above chart from Oct ‘21). Gold triggered multiple signs of a ‘IV’ wave low in 2021, also projecting a rally back to (at least) the Aug ‘20 peak near 2080/GC.
That would complete an overall 5-wave structure from the late-2015 bottom and usher in a larger corrective period.
The timing and price levels for the ensuing ‘V’ wave peak were the primary factors that still needed to be determined.
At the very least (soonest), the ‘V’ wave peak should arrive in Feb/Mar ‘22.
At the very least, the ‘V’ wave peak should occur right at or slightly above 2080/GC (wave III peak).
On March 8, ‘22, Gold fulfilled both of those minimum criteria – peaking at 2082/GCM. (See updated version of this Oct ‘21 chart on page 3.)
While that does not automatically signal that a final wave ‘V’ peak is intact, it did show that Gold had fulfilled the minimum necessary – in price and time – for that major peak (also reinforcing the 40-Year Cycle expectations for this time).
From a purely Elliott Wave perspective, that wave ‘V’ peak would not be confirmed as the wave ‘V’ peak until Gold drops below the ‘IV’ wave low (what is also considered the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ if a new down-trending wave structure is unfolding) – near 1680/GC.”
Gold reached major upside targets and wave objectives in early-March ’22 – precisely fulfilling time and price targets for a wave ‘5’ of ‘V’ major peak. At the very least, the highs near 2080/GC should spur an overall correction back to ~1680/GC – a pivotal and decisive level of 1 – 2 year support for Gold. Silver is poised to turn weekly trend down and would reinforce significance of early-March ’22 cycle highs.
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