Gold & Silver Uptrends Intact; Impending Cycle Lows in Silver; Late-Jan/Early-Feb. Cycle Highs in Focus.  Why is 68.00/XAU Critical Support?  

Gold & Silver Uptrends Intact; Impending Cycle Lows in Silver; Late-Jan/Early-Feb. Cycle Highs in Focus.  Why is 68.00/XAU Critical Support?

01/12/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver remain positive but have fulfilled almost all that was expected from the late-Nov. buy signals… However, they remain in intermediate uptrends until daily closes below 1278.1/GCG& 15.490/SIH.

As has been so common between highs, Silver is creating a sequence of contrasting lows – at 18 – 20 week intervals.  That cycle repeatedly validates itself as one of the most (if not the most) consistent cycles in Silver.

The reason for discussing that is Silver is about to enter the latest phase of that cycle, when a secondary low is most likely.  Since it covers a 3-week period (Jan. 14 – Feb. 4), there is plenty of time for Silver to have a quick reaction lower – potentially testing support around 15.00/SIH – and then set that low.

That would perpetuate an 18 – 20 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.  In the meantime, Silver could be creating a corroborating ~9-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.  If that turns out to be the case, it would project a low on Jan. 16 – 18…

Gold & Silver have hesitated near their highs but not yet signaled a reversal lower.  As a result, they leave open the possibility for a retest of the highs.  Having failed to turn their intra-month trends up, however, they are stuck in limbo.

Gold needs a daily close below 1278.1/GCG before a daily close above 1300.4/GCG to turn its intra-month trend down.  Silver needs a daily close below 15.385/SIH before a daily close above 15.955/SIH to turn its intra-month trend down.

The XAU did spike higher this past week and could now see a quick correction into Jan. 14 – 18, the next phase of a ~9-week/~60-degree high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.

If that is fulfilled, and the XAU bottoms above 68.00, it would be in an ideal position to enter a new advance that could ultimately stretch into March 2019.  (That does not negate the potential for an initial high in late-Jan./early-Feb.)

1 – 4 week traders could be holding long positions in XAU related vehicles (options, GDX, gold stocks, etc.) from when the XAU was trading at 65.30 down to 62.90.  Risk/exit those positions on [reserved for subscribers].  TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!  Exit 1/2 of these if/when 72.90/XAU is hit first.

Copper spiked to new lows in fulfillment of its weekly trend pattern and then rallied sharply after bottoming on Jan. 2 – 4, the convergence of a ~20-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression, a 15-week high-high-(low) Cycle Progression and a ~60-degree/2-month low-low-low Cycle Progression.

It would take a daily close above 2.6750/HGH to provide the first sign of a reversal higher.

Gold, Silver and Gold/Silver Index (XAU) are fulfilling multi-week consolidation with multiple weekly cycles in Silver projecting a secondary low in the coming week(s).  That should then yield another rally into late-Jan./early-Feb. when slightly larger-degree cycles peak.  The XAU has pivotal support surrounding 68.00. – likely to impact expectations for cycle highs in late-Jan./early-Feb. and then in March 2019.  Copper is showing signs of a bottom and could see new advance take hold in January.

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.