Gold Increasing Odds for Drop into May 14 – 18 Cycles.
Gold Increasing Odds for Drop into May 14 – 18 Cycles.
05/02/18 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Currency Conundrum:
“The Dollar Index & Euro, in recent weeks, confirmed that their 12 – 18 month price targets had been completely fulfilled. When the Dollar tested & held its monthly HLS in January, it projected a multi-quarter low in the ensuing 1 – 3 months.
At the same time, the Dollar generated a weekly HLS signal – projecting a multi-month low in the ensuing 1 – 3 weeks. The Dollar spiked to a new low and bottomed 3 weeks later – fulfilling both the monthly & weekly HLS objectives and ushering in the potential for both a multi-month AND multi-quarter bottom…
The Dollar had retraced .618 of its 2013/2014 – 2017 advance and held that support on multiple tests. It had also completed a very precise 50% retracement of its 2011 – 2017 advance (~88.50/DX was the downside target) and also held that support on multiple tests.
In addition, the Dollar had completed its third consecutive 16.00 basis point sell-off (2009, 2010 – 2011 & 2017 – 2018) – providing a textbook example of wave equivalence. Those declines (~90.00 – ~74.00, ~89.00 – ~73.00 & ~104.00 – ~88.00/DX) all occurred since the 2008 major bottom, with the most recent bottoming at the approximate levels where the other two peaked (‘resistance turned into support’)…
Powerfully validating that potential, the Euro had produced a similar (but inverse) pattern in Jan./Feb. while precisely attacking its primary 12 – 18 month upside target (1.2600 – 1.2750/EC)…
The Dollar reinforced this action in mid-April, when it again tested & held a weekly HLS while setting a higher low. During the ensuing week, it confirmed that pattern, spiking lower and then triggering an outside-week/2 Close Reversal and 2-Step Reversal buy signal…
The Euro did the inverse and both currencies quickly entered an accelerated move on the heels of those signals… and portended a Dollar surge into May 7 – 11 – based on the weekly trend pattern and geometric cycles that could produce a Dollar peak 6 months/180 degrees from the early-Nov. ’17 peak and 3 months/90 degrees from the intervening early-Feb. ’18 peak.
While this has been unfolding, Gold fell back after retesting its 1 – 2 year highs. And as Gold slowly gave back those recent gains, another currency competitor quietly gained ground. Bitcoin bottomed two weeks after its cycle low (middle half of March 2018; see Cycle Progression diagrams on page 2, copied from March 14, 2018 Alert) and has since gained about 50% from its low.
This is intriguing as it nears the time when a multi-week and possibly multi-month high is more likely – the middle half of May 2018. A peak around mid-May would fulfill a 5-month low (mid-July ’17) – high (mid-Dec. ’17) – high (mid-May ’18) Cycle Progression.
It corroborated that potential by setting an intervening peak in early-March – the midpoint (2.5 months) of that cycle. That produces a corresponding high-high-(high) Cycle Progression targeting mid-May for a Bitcoin peak.
Not surprisingly, that coincides with the 11 & 22 month low-low Cycle Progressions in Gold that have been focused on May 14 – 18. A bottom in precious metals could coincide with a peak in cryptocurrency as the Currency Warwages on…
Gold & Silver remain stuck in multi-month periods of congestion… Silver re-entered its intra-year downtrend and is struggling to hold support even as its weekly 21 Low MAC is turning higher. Silver was able to provide an initial surge in line with the plummeting weekly 21 MARCs but fell just shy of triggering a larger-degree advance.
By spiking to a new multi-month low this week, Silver just matched the duration of its previous (14-week) decline. It would not turn its weekly trend down until a weekly close below 16.305/SIK.
From a cycle perspective, a multi-month low is likely in the first half of May 2018.
The XAU remains in a daily downtrend, triggered after its April 18 peak fulfilled the latest phase of a 21 – 24 day/14 – 16 trading day Cycle Progression. The next phase comes into play on May 8 – 11…”
Gold, Silver & XAU remain vulnerable, with Gold poised to drop into May 14 – 18 – a convergence of weekly cycles. The Dollar is expected to see an intermediate peak as Bitcoin could also set a high in May 2018. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.