Gold & Silver Poised to Turn Bullish as Bonds Near Bottom; March/April ’23 is Key!
02-22-23 – Interest rates – and/or interest rate expectations – have been the driving force for substantial market action over the past 6 – 12 months. In many respects, the current environment has become a classic ‘good news is bad news’ scenario in which any good economic news has the detrimental side effect of raising the anxiety level related to future interest rate hikes… bad news.
One potential positive factor (if ‘positive’ is defined as something that alleviates some of the stress regarding rising interest rates) is a ~4-month/~18-week cycle that has been discussed since Bonds & Notes fulfilled analysis for a multi-month rally (from cycle lows in Oct ’22) into late-Jan/early-Feb ’23.
That ~18-week cycle has been portending a drop in Bonds & Notes (higher interest rate expectations) into Feb 21 – Mar 3, ‘23, before a bottom takes hold. IF that bottom takes hold without Bonds & Notes reversing their weekly trends down, it would project a 1 – 2 month rally back to the recent highs (lower interest rates).
At the same time, some commodities are showing signs of weakness, or expected weakness, factors that could alleviate some of the inflation fears that keep spooking the markets…
Energy markets have been dropping for many months, with Natural Gas returning to its 2020 lows. In this arena, however, multi-month lows are expected in the current 1 – 2 week period. While that does not portend an immediate surge, it does show that their ‘deflationary’ impact could soon disappear.
Then there are metals, which have rallied for 4 – 6 months… Gold & Silver have turned their weekly trends down – after reaching decisive upside price targets – demonstrating that most or all of their 3 – 6 month upside potential is fulfilled.
Also of interest are grain markets… particularly Corn. It continues to trace out a topping pattern and could soon enter a more accelerated decline… into (at least) April ’23 – when multiple monthly cycles converge.
The Dollar could also have a deflationary impact if it continues to adhere to analysis for a multi-month bottom in early-Feb ’23 followed by a rally back to its high…
Gold & Silver are fulfilling projections for quick, sharp drops back to ~1820/GCJ & ~21.20/SIH. Gold spiked down and tested the convergence of range-trading support (~1820/GC) and its rising weekly 21 High MAC (1832.8/GCJ)… turning its weekly trend down in the process (a lagging/confirming indicator). As long as 1820/GCJ holds, Gold should rally into [reserved for subscribers]… Gold & Silver would not show signs of 1 – 2 week lows until daily closes above 1871/GCJ & 22.31/SIH.
The XAU & HUI have reached, and are spiking below, their 2 – 4 week downside targets at 115/XAU & 220/ HUI. If these levels are to hold, the XAU & HUI should not give weekly closes below them. On Feb 17, they turned their weekly trends down – ushering in the likely time for an initial low (ensuing 1 – 2 weeks)…”
Silver has sold off since fulfilling projections for a multi-month advance to 24.50 – 25.00/SI into early-Jan ’23 when a multi-week or multi-month peak was/is likely. Both Gold & Silver have corrected since early-Feb with Gold in the process of testing its intermediate downside target and key support near 1820/GCJ. These retracements would complete ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave pullbacks (following the initial impulse waves from the Sept & Nov ’22 lows) and set the stage for strong rallies in 2Q/3Q ’23… potentially coinciding with the outlook for topping interest rates and bottoming Bonds & Notes.
The XAU & HUI fulfilled the outlook for surges above 135/XAU & 250/HUI and subsequent corrections to ~115/XAU & ~220/HUI. Cycles project a multi-month low during the impending phase of an uncanny ~23-Week Cycle that next bottoms in late-Feb/early-March ’23.
How High Could Gold & Silver Reach in 2023?
Could the Outlook for Bonds (Bottom in ~March ’23) Corroborate?
What Other Factors Could Positively Impact Silver?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.