Gold & Silver Projecting Accelerated Surges into April 2024; Middle East Cycles Collide!
03-13-24 – Gold/Silver/XAU Surges Continue; ‘Sweet Spot’ Expands –
Wave Duration Symmetry
Since the August 2020 peak in Gold – the initial fulfillment of its 40-Year Cycle shift that projected (way back in 2014/2015) a major advance in 2016 through late-2020/early-2021 – Gold & Silver have experienced 4 primary moves of 27 – 29/30 weeks in duration.
Two of those were declines and two of those were advances. There were other moves, or extensions of those trends, but the most noteworthy ones were those 4. The current advance – starting from the early-October ’23 low – has the potential to make it a 5th.
As is usually the case, that potential would not be discussed if it were not for the synergy of several other cycles & timing indicators – identifying similar potential.
[This ~27 – 29-week cycle is the midpoint of the nearly-ubiquitous 54 – 59-week/~12.5 – ~13.5-month cycle that has governed Gold for over a decade. That is the same cycle that came back into play in early-October 2023 – linked to the previous lows in September 2022 & August 2021 – and pinpointed another major bottom.]
Another 27 – 29-week advance would culminate in the month of April, with the greatest synergy of reinforcing cycles on April 12 – 19, 2024.
For starters, that would have the crescendo of a major advance coinciding with the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – a time when other significant peaks have been seen in Gold & Silver.
More important is a ~19-wk low (March ’23) – high (July 17-21 ’23) – high (Nov 27 – Dec 1 ’23) – (high; April 8 – 15 (-19), ’24) Cycle Progression that also culminates at that time.
A rally into April 15 – 19, ’24 would create some wave symmetry with Gold & Silver rallying for ~9 weeks, correcting for ~10 weeks, and then (potentially) rallying for ~9 weeks again… into April 15 – 19th. Combined, those three swings would create a 28-week advance from the early-October 2023 low… This is reinforced by the fact Gold has recently broken out to new all-time highs, exceeding the triple top that was created in 2020 – 2023.
All of this is powerfully validating much of what was described almost a year ago – involving projections for a new multi-year advance in Gold & Silver (from their late-2022 lows). As described in the excerpt on page 2 (from the April 11, 2023 The Bridge – Gold, Silver & Elliott Wave Structure), the late-2022 cycle low in Gold & Silver – and coinciding peak in the US Dollar – would usher in the first phase of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars… in 2022 – 2025.
All of this coincided with the Dollar Index reaching major, 10 – 15 year upside targets and completing a textbook 5-wave advance from its 2008 bottom.
And it also coincided with an initial peak in inflation – and later in interest rates – ushering in the ‘sweet spot’ for Silver (and Gold), when inflationary pressures are supporting metals but the burdensome threat of increasing interest rate hikes dissipates.
That set the stage for a new decline in the US Dollar – from late-2022 (the fulfillment of multiple 7-Year & 14-Year Cycles) into late-2025. And that was expected to usher in major advances in Gold, Silver & Cryptos…
Gold & Silver are surging after Silver held intra-year trend support for 6 consecutive weeks as Gold completed a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high… and then both triggered new buy signals in mid-February.
Based on multiple wave objectives (rally from Oct ’23 low = Oct ’22 – May ’23 rally; rally from Feb ’24 low = Oct – Dec ’23 rally, etc.), Gold is still likely to see a surge to ~2300/GCJ as part of its latest primary advance.
That is also a pair of long-term wave objectives and would allow the current advance (from Sept/Oct 2022) to double the magnitude of the 2015 – 2018 advance and be .786 (2DGR) the magnitude of the 2018 – 2020 rally.
Additionally, April Gold has traded in consistent ~150.0/GCJ ranges since November 2022, with parameters at ~1850, ~2000 & ~2150/GCJ. The next range trading target is at ~2300.0/GCJ…
Silver reversed the weekly trend up, further confirming that a multi-month bottom is likely intact. That also generated a range-trading signal with targets at ~25.25 & ~26.75/SIK. Silver turned its weekly 21 MAC up and then closed above that rising 21 High MAC last week – reinforcing the unfolding upward reversal.
A weekly close above 24.56/SIK would magnify developing strength, allowing Silver to turn its intra-year trend up. That would likely spur a surge to ~27.25/SIK – where several extreme (intermediate) upside targets converge.
Daily extremes in Silver would allow for a spike up to 25.61 – 25.78/SIK in the short term, which has nearly been fulfilled.
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver around 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk daily closes below 2110/GCJ & 24.22/SIK. Exit 1/2 of Gold positions if/when xxx/GCJ is hit and 1/2 of Silver positions if/when xx.xx/SIK is hit. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The XAU & HUI surged higher, confirming the outside-week/2 Close Reversal buy signals they generated on March 1st after retesting their October ’23 lows in late-February. Those recent lows added validation to the 12.5 – 13.5-month cycle that bottomed in October ’23 and projected a new 7 – 9 month advance to follow.
In sync with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs, the XAU & HUI projected surges in March ’24… that have since unfolded. The action of the past 4 weeks has been similar to the weeks leading into and beyond early-March 2023, as the XAU embarked on a 5-week surge.
In both cases, the XAU suffered a final sharp sell-off for ~2 weeks, bounced, then retested that low ~2 weeks later. In 2023, that subsequently led to an overall advance of ~35.00/XAU points over a ~5-week period.
2024 was projected to see something similar.
On a 1 – 2 week basis, the XAU is showing a chance for a surge that could spike as high as 134 – 138.00 and would powerfully confirm the buy signal triggered at 106.00 down to 102.60/XAU. That is where extreme upside targets exist in the coming week(s) and is where the monthly 21 High MARC exists in March 2024.
1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 106.00 down to 102.60 in late-February in line with the strategy published at that time. Risk/exit on a weekly close below 108.00/XAU. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!”
Gold & Silver are fulfilling their mid-February buy signals – projecting acceleration higher in March/April 2024. The current advance is projected to take Gold above 2300/GCJ with Silver & the XAU targeting related levels as they surge into April 2024.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for 2024! Gold is acting as the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’ and is fulfilling projections to break out to the upside in March 2024!
Related cycles reinforce the likelihood for intensification of Middle East War Cycles in 2024 – with a new escalation of Iran vs Israel conflict likely to spur gains in Gold & Silver. Watch March 20 into April 19/20 as the most likely time for escalation of tensions in the Middle East. (The March 2024 INSIIDE Track recently elaborated.)
A 180-degree move from the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel arrives in early-April ’23… a cyclically likely time for a new attack of some form… and acceleration higher in precious metals.
How Does Gold Outlook Portend Related Shocks in Other Key Markets??
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside (in 2024) following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
The Bridge: Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion Dilemma & Demise
40-Year Cycle – Currency Wars & Cryptos
Solar, Seismic & Gold Intensity Cycles
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.