Gold & Silver Poised to Set 1 – 2 Month Lows; Multi-Week Rebound Likely.
07/16/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver continue to decline following their June 3 highs, peaks that were set during the latest phases of corresponding ~6-week & ~12-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progressions.
Gold turned its intra-month trend down and spiked lower into mid-month while Silver waited until mid-month to turn its intra-month trend down while spiking to monthly & weekly support. Neither metal would show any signs of bottoming until (at least) daily closes above 1752/GCQ & 19.45/SIU.
The recent lows perpetuated Gold’s 6-week cycle, fulfilling a ~6-week low-low-low-low-high-high-high-high- (low; July 11 – 18) Cycle Progression. They also allowed Silver to match the duration of its two longest declines of the past few years.
All three have been ~18 (17 – 19) weeks in duration – unfolding in Aug – Nov ’20, May – Sept ’21 and now Mar – July ’22. In and of itself, neither of these factors signals a bottom… but both show that Gold & Silver have extended their declines for a ‘normal’ amount of time – when compared to previous sell-offs and related Cycle Progressions… Gold & Silver could fulfill longer-term cycles that have been focused on Aug/Sept ’22 for a second (most likely lower) peak in 2022…
Gold has nearly matched the magnitude of its Aug ’20 – Mar ’21 decline while fulfilling an intermediate HHL objective in the Dec ’22 contract (~2090 H – ~1900 H – ~1710/GCZ Low) while testing the levels of its Mar & Aug ’21 lows (and Feb/Mar ’20 high).
The overall outlook for 2022 has not changed. Gold & Silver were forecast to set a pair of multi-month peaks in 2022 – the first in late-Feb/early-Mar and the second in Aug/Sept ‘22 (2-year cycle from Aug ’20 peak, related ~2-year low-high-high Cycle Progression, latest phase of ~6-month low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver – that portends an equally significant peak in Mar ’23).
With a fairly clear 5-wave sequence to the downside (from the multi-month cycle peak in early-March), the most important level of intermediate and wave resistance over the next 1 – 2 months would be the June ’22 highs at 1882.5/GCQ & 22.655/SIU. (That 5-wave decline increases the likelihood of a lower peak in Aug/Sept ’22.)
During the recent ~4-month decline, those peaks represented the wave ‘4’ rebound highs in both metals. As a result, they are considered ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ resistance… At the very least, Gold & Silver need daily closes above 1752/GCQ (1771/GCZ) & 19.45/SIU to signal that a multi-week low is taking hold.
Until then, the trends remain down.
The XAU & HUI showed more weakness, selling off to new lows (lowest levels since 2Q ’20) and reinforcing the significance of their April ’22 peaks – the latest phases of both ~10-month & ~5-month (21 – 23 week) high-high Cycle Progressions.
The April ’22 high was the 7th in that 21 – 23-week sequence and was 23 weeks from its Nov ’21 high, which was 23 weeks from May ’21 peak…
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On an intermediate basis, the XAU & HUI remain negative and dropped into mid-July after turning their intra-month trends down. That allowed the XAU to reach its intra-year HHL objective (171.43 High – 137.40 High = 103.37/XAU HHL objective).”
Gold & Silver are reinforcing multi-month cycles that peaked in late-Feb/early-Mar ‘22 while Gold was fulfilling the primary upside target for a ‘5’ of ‘V’ wave peak. XAU/HUI Indexes set divergent peaks in April ’22 (after Gold & Silver had peaked) – fulfilling very consistent ~23-week & ~10-month cycles in both.
Multiple signals (weekly trend remaining down, intra-year trend turning negative) are reinforcing signs of weakness and corroborating 2Q ’22 analysis for Gold to drop back to ~1680/GC (see 5/11/22 issue of The Bridge as well as related publications) as part of multi-year wave structure and a larger decline in Gold now that a wave ‘V’ peak is likely intact.
What Would Retest of ~1680/GC Mean for Gold? …And Would That Support Hold?
How Does Gold/Silver Action Reinforce March ’22 Cycle Highs… and 2021/22 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.