Gold & Silver Advances Confirmed; New Surge Likely After Early-May!
04/11/20 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver have surged since dropping sharply to Gold’s primary downside objective – testing and holding its 4th wave of lesser degree, the Nov. ’19 low at ~1450.0/GC – and to major cycle lows in Silver.
Gold bottomed without turning its weekly trend down, projecting a rally back to the highs. It reinforced that potential by fulfilling short-term analysis for a pullback to 1570 – 1580/GCM leading into early-April – before the next advance.
Silver has continued to surge since fulfilling a myriad of weekly, monthly & yearly cycles bottoming on March 16 – 20. For starters, the low in March 2020 fulfilled an overall 51-month high-low-(low) Cycle Progression in precious metals – connecting the Sept. ’11 peak and Dec. ’15 low.
More specifically, the bottom on March 16 – 20, 2020 fulfilled:
— 70-week low (July 10 – 14, ’17) – low (Nov. 12 – 16, ’18) – low Cycle Progression.
— 14-week low (July 10 – 14, ’17) – high (Feb. 18 – 22, ’18) – low (Nov. 12 – 16, ’18) – high (Sept. 2 – 6, ’19) – low (Dec. 9 – 13, ’19) – low Cycle Sequence.
— The midpoint of the 28-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Dec. 9 – 13, 2019 low and ushered in the bullish period into late-Feb./early-March ’20.
— An overlapping 28-week high (Feb. ’19) – high (Sept. ’19) -low Cycle Progression.
— 7-week high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
Silver is expected to set a secondary low on May 4 – 8, the next phase of the 7-week cycle that timed the March 16 – 20 low and previous lows in late-Jan. and early-Dec. In the interim, a peak is most likely in this time frame (mid-April).
Gold has surged in another wave ‘5’ advance but remains in the outer extreme of the 54 – 59 week low-low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that timed the Feb. ’19 & Jan. ‘18 peaks as well as preceding lows in 4Q 2016, 2015 & 2014.
As a result, it is showing the possibility for a dual fulfillment of this cycle (peaks in early-March & mid-April) with a progression of successively higher-magnitude 5th waves…These metals are in an accelerated phase, so additional spike highs are still possible – leading into mid-April.
Longer-term traders and investors could have bought Silver or related stocks around 12.000/SIK on March 16 – 20 and should now risk a weekly close below 13.80/SIK (use the futures as the trigger point for the risk on this metals’ position).
Gold & Silver surged after turning their new intra-month trends up and projecting higher prices into mid-April. Gold has a 10 – 12 trading day low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that could time a peak as early as April 13.
The XAU closed above 87.31, turning the 1 – 2 week trend back to positive… This rally has followed the fulfillment of downside expectations in early-April (projected drop to 77.50/XAU) and just fulfilled the daily trend signal triggered at that low.
By turning its intra-month trend up on April 6, the XAU also closed above its daily 21 MAC, as that channel was poised to turn back up in the ensuing days. That created a more bullish scenario in which the XAU could rally into the coming week when a 48 – 53 day low (6/10) – low (8/01) – low (9/18) – low (11/11) – high (Jan. 2) – high (2/24) – high (April 13 – 17) Cycle Progression recurs.
That could even stretch this overall advance into weekly cycles on April 20 – 24.”
Gold, Silver & gold stocks (XAU Index) confirming multi-month cycle lows on March 16 – 20, expected to spur new advances into late-2020 and likely into May 2021. March 18 – 20 buy signal remains in force and growing in confidence. Accelerated gains still expected; XAU could stretch into (at least) April 20 – 24.
How High Could Gold/Silver/XAU Reach by 2Q 2021?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.