Gold, Palladium, Copper & XAU Signaling Major Lows; Rally into Late-Feb./early-March ’19 Projected!
Gold, Palladium, Copper & XAU Signaling Major Lows; Rally into Late-Feb./early-March ’19 Projected!
09/28/18 INSIIDE Track: Gold & Silver remain in a multi-year consolidation that is considered to be a corrective rally following the 5-wave decline from 2011 into late-2015. The key for Gold is its Dec. 2016 low. That was, and still is, perceived to be the ’B’ wave low of an ’A-B-C’ wave rebound – capable of stretching into 2019 (or beyond).
In late-Jan. ’18, Gold fulfilled 27 – 29 week and 55 – 59 week cycles that projected a future peak for March 2019 with an intervening phase of the 27 – 29 week cycle arriving in August 2018. Gold sold off into that (Aug. ‘18) cycle – also the midpoint of the 55 – 59 week cycle – the same time that Copper was forecast to produce a multi-month low…
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month traders & investors can enter into long Gold positions (cash, futures, ETFs, etc.) at current levels and average into these down to [reserved for subscribers].
The XAU has fulfilled about 98% of its downside potential and expectations, triggered in early-2017. It dropped into Aug. – Nov. 2018 – when a 3 – 6 month or longer bottom was/is most likely. That would perpetuate a 30 – 34 month low (5/05) – high (3/08) – high (12/10) – low (6/13) – low (1/16) Cycle Sequence…
From a price perspective, the XAU has – for all intents and purposes – fulfilled its downside targets. Since mid-2017, a combination of wave objectives has focused on 54.00 – 59.00/XAU as the larger-degree 1 – 2 year downside target. The XAU recently spiked down to 60.59, coming to within less than 2.00 points of this multi-year target. That is within the normal margin of error for a target on that scale.
It tested that target in early-Sept., perpetuating a 3-month/90-degree Cycle Progression that was discussed and illustrated in the March 2018 INSIIDE Track. That cycle projected intermediate lows in early-March, early-June and early-Sept. 2018…
A low in early-Sept. 2018 would also fulfill an over-arching ~180-degree high (Sept. ‘16) – low (Mar. ‘17) – high (Sept. ‘17) – low (Mar. ‘18) – low (Sept. ‘18) Cycle Sequence AND a larger-degree ~360-degree high (Sept. ‘16) – high (Sept. ‘17) – low (Sept. ‘18) Cycle Progression.
With the higher-magnitude 30 – 34 month Cycle Progression (that has been discussed throughout 2018) averaging 32 months, a Sept. 2018 low would arrive 32 months from the Jan. 2016 bottom.
Whether or not the final low is intact, long-term cycles could produce the next multi-year peak in late-2020/early-2021. The greatest synergy of cycles occurs in 4Q 2020. That includes a recurring ~5-year cycle that dates back to early-1996 and late-2000. It would also fulfill a ~10-year low (4Q ‘00)- high (4Q ‘10) – high (4Q ‘20) Cycle Progression.
Platinum remains the weakest metal and could still extend its decline into 4Q/Oct. 2018 – when multi-year cycles converge. However, it has retested and held 10 – 15 year support at 750 – 760.0/PL – while confirming (possibly completing) a ‘5th’ wave decline. Once a bottom is intact, and a reversal higher confirmed, Platinum should rally to ~1,200/PL.
Palladium has rallied strongly since plunging into mid-Aug. and completing a textbook ‘a-b-c’ correction in which the ‘c’ wave equaled the magnitude of the ‘a’ wave and bottomed while retracing 50% of the Jan. ‘16 – Jan. ‘18 advance. It then turned its weekly trend up, confirming that bottom and has since been on course to retest its early-2018 peak around 1090/PAZ… where an intermediate peak is more likely.
Copper has rallied since fulfilling its downside projections for 3Q 2018. It spiked down to its 4th wave of lesser degree target – on a contract basis – at 2.5480/HGU, while doubling its 10-month trading range (a corroborating downside target) and precisely fulfilling monthly and multi-year cycle lows.
That low perpetuated, among other things, a ~2.5-year/28 – 31-month high (Feb. ’11) – low (Jun. ’13) – low (Jan. ’16) – low (Aug. ’18) Cycle Progression.
On an intermediate basis, multiple technical indicators could allow for a surge to ~3.000/HGZ in the coming weeks in fulfillment of the initial buy signal triggered in mid-August (see Weekly Re-Lay).”
Precious Metals reinforcing time for a sequence of 1 – 2 year lows in Aug. – Nov. 2018. Gold & Palladium provided the first bottoms in Aug. ’18 (with Gold fulfilling its ~27-week cycle and holding pivotal support) and ushered in this transition period. After Nov. ’18, it should trigger a bullish period in precious metals – leading into late-Feb./early-Mar. ’19 (the next phase of Gold’s 27 – 29 week & 55 – 59 week cycles).
Gold stocks (XAU) have followed suit and signaled a similar major bottom after attacking 1 – 2 year downside price targets and fulfilling monthly & weekly cycle lows that projected a (minimum) 6 – 12 month bottom in early-Sept. ‘18. That is setting the stage for a major advance that could last into late-2020/early-2021. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.