Gold & Silver Consolidate as Dollar Rebounds; Platinum Signaling Low.
05-05-25 – “The Dollar Index is slowly rallying after dropping to new 3+-year lows and initially bottoming while perpetuating a ~7-week low-high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression. That ~3-month decline reinforced ongoing analysis for a bearish 2025 to take hold after a 6 – 12 month peak was projected for January ‘25…
A drop into November 2025 would create wave timing symmetry with the Dollar Index declining for ~10 months – from its January ’25 high – and matching the ~10-month duration of the Sept ’22 – July ’23 decline. (A drop to ~95.00/DX would fulfill the related wave symmetry based on price… the minimum downside objective.)
- A low in Nov ’25 would fulfill a ~14-month low (July ’23) – low (Sept ’24) – (low; Nov ’25) Cycle Progression.
- A low in 4Q ’25 would fulfill a ~9-quarter low (2Q ’21) – low (3Q ’23) – (low; 4Q ’25) Cycle Progression.
- Other timing relationships & indicators point to 4Q ’25 as the ideal time for a 1 – 2 year low…
Gold & Silver surged into the middle half of April with Gold fulfilling its potential for a 1 – 2 month high on April 14 – 25th – the time when a recurring 23 – 24-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression came back into play.
Gold also fulfilled a recurring intra-year pattern in which it has repeatedly set a multi-week or multi-month peak in the middle part of April – in sync with the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19th) and/or the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – a time when tensions, conflict and/or safe haven ‘needs’ often culminate…
On a broader basis, Silver’s early-April low reached (and bottomed at) its ongoing downside target near 27.60/SIK, fulfilling projections for a ‘C’ wave decline that have been the focus since Dec ‘24.
From a timing perspective, it set a low in April ’25 – fulfilling broader geometric cycles that were/are expected to foreshadow a future peak in ~April 2026. That low needs to hold in order to validate the outlook for a rally from April into Nov ’25… and ultimately into ~April ’26.
Until proven otherwise, that early-April ’25 low is considered to be the major corrective low in Silver that was projected since 4Q ’24.
The XAU & HUI surged into mid-April and initially peaked – just as they did in mid-April 2023 and in mid-April 2022. Similar to the metals, the Date of Aggression often times the culmination of a run-up in reaction to some sort of stressor.”
Gold & Silver are consolidating after surging into late-April, following Silver’s early-April (6 – 12 month?) bottom that fulfilled its 3 – 6 month downside objective and signaled a multi-month bottom. That was in sync with the outlook for Platinum & Palladium as both entered bullish cycles on April 7 – 11th and are expected to surge into June ’25 as part of larger, overall advances. That reinforces the 17-Year Cycle impact on Silver.
17-Year Cycle & Silver: April ’25 Low
Gold, Silver & the XAU set multi-week highs in April but are poised for new rallies into ~mid-June ‘25. Platinum & Palladium are similar and are projected to enter more significant rallies – leading into the next phase of Platinum’s ~5-week cycle on June 6 – 13, ’25). The April ’25 INSIIDE Track detailed why Platinum is on the cusp of a Major advance (along with Silver & Palladium), stating: “This could be one of the ‘golden’ (or is that ‘platinum’) trading opportunities of 2025!”
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow (into at least 2025/2026 and potentially longer)…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
April 2025 ushered in a new and reinforcing phase of this overall shift and could be the first phase of major rallies in key metals (Platinum & Palladium) and the next phase for Gold & Silver. See current publications for the most updated analysis.
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Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.