Gold Poised for Retest of April High
Gold Poised for Retest of April High;
Mid-Year Low Should Follow…
Mid-Dec. Cycle Low Becoming Focus
05/31/17 INSIIDE Track:
“Gold & Silver sold off into early-May – when Silver’s 20-week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression projected an intermediate low… at least an initial one. That was expected to spur a rally into May 30–June 2nd & was corroborated by a 1–4 week buy signal in the Weekly Re-Lay.
The weekly trend pattern (that went from up to neutral, but could not turn down) is arguing for a retest of the April highs, at least in Gold. Gold’s intra-year uptrend is indicating the same thing. If that turns out to be accurate, it would signal that the next cycle low – in June 2017 – would time a higher low. (at least in the actual metals)
As for Silver, it is mixed and would need to give a weekly close above 17.460/SIN to turn its intra-year trend back up and turn a bit more positive. Once again, it bottomed in sync with its 2.50 point trading range – dropping to attack 16.000/SI after peaking near 18.500/SI.
There is another important aspect to that mid-June cycle – particularly its geometric component (see May 2017 INSIIDE Track for related analysis) – that deserves some added attention at this time. It has to do with a future phase of that ~90-degree (~3-month) cycle that emerges in Dec. 2017… ideally in mid-Dec. 2017.
There are a few reasons for addressing this now. The first has to do with its cyclic synergy. The overall period of Dec. 2017/Jan. 2018 is the convergence of multiple monthly cycles – at which time another multi-month/multi-quarter low is expected (see accompanying table).
If intervening price action exhibits new signs of strength, that late-2017/early-2018 time window should identify a higher low in a developing uptrend. That remains the more likely alternative.
However, if Gold does not exceed its April 2017 peak before then – ideally well before then – Dec. 2017/Jan. 2018 could time a new 3–6 month or even 6–12 month low (altering the intra-year expectation for 2017). As always, price action must be the ultimate filter to these cycles.
The discussion of this future cycle does NOT mean the overall outlook has changed. Cyclic analysis is a fluid & dynamic endeavor and must be constantly assessed & reassessed to make sure expectations are continually validated… or to recognize early if some aspect has changed.
In addition, as a market trades through impending cycles (like those in early-May & mid-June), it becomes time to increase the focus on future cycles and hone expectations for them.
A related aspect of this late-2017 cycle has to do with midpoints – the theme of this month’s issue. The accompanying table basically describes three primary cycles and three corresponding half-cycles (9-year, 24-month & 18-month vs. 4.5-year, 12-month & 9-month)… all of which have powerfully impacted Gold.
Those half cycles represent the midpoints of the larger cycles – when important corroboration is likely. Both the Dec. 2016 low and the recent April 2017 high provided intervening turning points that reinforced the primary cycles… intensifying the focus on Dec. 2017/Jan. 2018 – when the next phases of all these cycles recur.
The action of the coming months should help determine what is expected from this pivotal convergence of monthly & yearly cycles in late-2017. Gold & Silver would need to rally to new 2017 highs – and give weekly closes above them – to project higher lows at that time.”
Gold & Silver’s action is intensifying focus on synergistic cycle low in mid-Dec. 2017. Secondary (higher) low is expected at that time, ushering in a bullish period in the months that follow. Midpoints are already corroborating that pivotal cycle low.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for more specific expectations, targets & trading strategies.