Gold & Silver Cycles Coincide with Iran & Israel Cycles; Portend Imminent Surge!
02-28-24 – “The 17-Year Cycle is a unique and sometimes uncanny timer of emotional/sociological shifts in our world. It has been discussed in INSIIDE Track since the late-1990s when it was part of the analysis projecting a multi-year stock market peak for 1Q 2000. At the time, it was explained how that was the culmination of a related ~34-Year low (1932) – high (1966) – high (2000) Cycle Progression.
That coincided with Major War Cycles that were forecast to collide in August – October 2001…
Cycles in Action: War Cycles – A 360-Year Cycle Shift (Sept 2001)
In 2006, the focus on that 17-Year Cycle intensified as an overlapping recurrence was projecting another multi-year stock market peak for late-2007.
At the time, it was ‘correlated’ to the 17-year cicada that was/were poised to emerge in 2007. A lengthy discussion focused on corroborating research, including that by David Juckett – who had identified a consistent 17-Year Cycle between the ‘to-and-away’ magnetic forces between the Sun and Earth. That cycle would ‘peak’ every 17 years.
Another correlation was also discussed and documented in 2006 & 2007. It had to do with the recurrence of Middle East conflict every 17 years – in 1939, 1956, 1973 & 1990… all linked to the preceding ‘carving up of the Middle East’ in 1922 (17 years prior) and all focused on 2007.
The published conclusion was for the start of a new Middle East conflict and the start of a multi-year, 35 – 50% stock market plunge… both beginning in late-2007.
To Attack or Not To Attack…
Throughout 2007, the drumbeats of war were steadily intensifying with the greatest focus on Iran, their nuclear development program, Israel, the US, and Russia/Putin’s repeated warnings against any attacks directed toward Iran. The year began with US assurances of no intention to attack Iran…
CBS News: Russia: U.S. Doesn’t Plan To Attack Iran
Russia soon responded with more warnings…
Haaretz: Top Russian General: U.S. Attack on Iran Would be a ‘Huge Mistake’
That rhetoric continued to escalate leading into October 2007 – the precise time that stock index cycles projected a major peak…
The 17-Year Cycle III: An INSIIDE Track Report
The 17-Year Cycle V: An INSIIDE Track Report
While that was unfolding, there was a major battle being planned and implemented beneath the surface that was not apparent to most (a little bit like the cicadas that remain under the surface for all but a very short period of their overall life cycle)…
Cyber Warfare…
Late-2007 arrived, the precise time the 17-Year Cycle had projected the onset of a major stock market decline and a major Middle East conflict, and the rhetoric escalated.
At the same time, it provided Vladimir Putin with a golden opportunity to lead a coalition of Caspian Sea bordering nations in a new defense pact, intensifying the growing symbiotic relationship between Russia & Iran…
The Guardian: Putin warns US against military action in Iran
Los Angeles Daily News: Putin warns the West against any attacks on Iran
Asia Times: Attack Iran and you attack Russia
The Mercury News: Russian president warns against attack on Iran
While it appeared that Putin’s threats and warnings were being heeded, an insidious ‘worm’ was inching its way through Iran’s nuclear program – leveling an unprecedented attack that was unlike any seen up to that point… a powerful archetype of the warfare of the future. A precedent was set!
Surreptitious Worm…
In November 2007, just weeks after the stock market set a multi-year peak that would ultimately trigger a 50+% plunge into 2009, Stuxnet was unleashed on to its intended target…
Reuters: Researchers say Stuxnet was deployed against Iran in 2007
Stanford: Stuxnet: The world’s first cyberweapon
While the initial attack, or at least breach, was not recognized for another ~three years, there is now no denying that a new phase of Middle East conflict was launched in late-2007, precisely when cycles had projected.
Setting the Stage…
All of this reinforces the outlook for a new phase of this 17-Year Cycle to likely be triggered in 2024 – most likely in 4Q 2024…
Multi-year trend in Gold & Silver… reinforcing projections for major lows in late-2022 with Gold completing a ~2-year ’flat correction’ in 4Q ‘22, when multiple cycles bottomed. Those lows should continue to hold with a stronger advance expected in 2024 and possibly 2025.
Watch March – May 2024…
17-Year Cycle Parallels
The 17-Year Cycle (of stock market declines) returns in 2024/2025 and is expected to trigger another major decline at some point during this period. That would perpetuate an uncanny cycle that timed 20 – 50% declines in 2007/2008, 1990, 1973/74, 1956 & 1939… coinciding with Middle East wars…
Gold & Silver are mixed, on an intermediate basis, with Gold in a weekly uptrend, trading above its weekly 21 High (and 40 High) MAC, and likely just completing a ~2-month ‘a-b-c’ correction. In contrast, Silver is in neutral trends – waiting for confirmation of its late-January ‘24 cycle low.
Both have been in a multi-month consolidation phase after Gold precisely fulfilled price & timing objectives with its surge into Dec 4, 2023 and up to 2152/GC. The early-December spike high fulfilled acceleration indicators, weekly & monthly LHRs, and multi-month cycle highs.
(Similar indicators project a sharp surge in early-March ‘24.)
That early-Dec ‘23 peak fulfilled a ~7-month/~30-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression (Dec 4 – 8, ’23)… that next comes into play in July 2024 – when a higher high appears very likely. The midpoint comes into play after mid-March ’24 and could time an intervening peak…
That also means Gold could undergo multiple sharp rallies at key points between now and [reserved for subscribers].
The first of them is projected to unfold in early-March 2024.
Silver is trying to hold the low it set during multi-week cycles that bottomed on Jan 17 – 24, ’24 – the latest phase of a ~15-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a ~5-week high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… and the final week when the weekly HLS pattern projected a 1 – 2 month low.
Silver has held at/above that low for over a month, and has prevented its intra-year trend from turning down, showing developing resilience.
It neutralized its weekly downtrend and needs a weekly close above 23.76/SIK to reverse that trend to up and confirm a multi-month bottom. That would also generate a range-trading signal in which Silver has traded in ~1.50/SIK ranges the past 3 – 4 months (~22.25 – ~23.75 – ~25.25 – ~26.75/SIK).
If that low holds, it should – based on a normal Cycle Progression evolution – trigger an overall [reserved for subscribers]…
Gold remains in the upper extremes of its 1 – 2 year uptrend, 3 – 5 year trading range and 8 – 10 year uptrend… on the verge of an upside breakout in 2024 (potentially soon)… Gold is forecast to rally into [reserved for subscribers]... In 2023/2024, Gold is also expected to see its sharpest rally in [reserved for subscribers]…
On the whole, Gold & Silver continue to reinforce analysis that projected major, multi-year lows to take hold in late-2022 and lead to a series of rallies & pullbacks during the initial phases of what has been forecast to be a larger-magnitude advance.
Buy signals for 1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders were recently triggered in the days following the mid-Feb. ’24 lows (see Weekly Re-Lay for details) and reinforce the outlook for an imminent surge…
The XAU is poised to generate a second neutral signal against its prevailing monthly uptrend, identifying March ‘24 as the ideal month for a reversal higher and the onset of a new surge.”
Gold & Silver are confirming their mid-February ’24 lows – set during the ideal time and place for a low to take hold and a new advance begin… that should accelerate higher in March 2024. An overall (intermediate) advance is projected from the mid-February cycle lows up to key price targets (with Gold surging to new all-time highs).
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! This should have a dramatic impact on the US Dollar in 2024/2025. March 2024 should provide the next corroboration to that outlook. Gold is acting as the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’ and is poised to break out to the upside in March 2024!
Related cycles reinforce the likelihood for escalation of Middle East War Cycles in 2024 – with a new escalation of Iran vs Israel conflict likely to spur some of the gains in Gold. Watch the first month of the Natural Year – from ~March 20 into April 19/20 – as the most likely time for escalation of tensions.
A 180-degree move from the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel arrives in early-April ’23… a cyclically likely time for a new attack of some form.
How Does Gold Outlook Portend Related Shocks in Other Key Markets??
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside (in 2024) following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
The Bridge: Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion Dilemma Demise
40-Year Cycle – Currency Wars & Cryptos
Solar, Seismic, & Gold Intensity Cycles
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.