Gold & XAU Trigger Sept. 24 Sell Signals; Project New Sell-off into Early-Oct & to 1467/GCZ… Reinforcing Outlook for Oct. – Dec. ’19.
09/28/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold, Silver & the XAU did see a bounce into Sept. 24/25 and quickly reversed lower – on track for lower lows in the coming weeks…
Gold & Silver were expected to rally into Sept. 25 – in sync with daily cycles, daily trend patterns, daily 21 MARCs – and then resume their declines. They surged into Sept. 25 and then abruptly turned lower (after Gold had given two neutral signals to its daily downtrend) – fulfilling all of these factors and ushering in what was/is expected to be the next phase of a larger-magnitude, intermediate sell-off.
Reinforcing these cycles and the daily trend pattern was another significant indicator. Gold’s daily 21 High MARC resistance was at 1540.3/GCZ on the day Gold set its highest close. That close came at 1540.2/GCZ.
The daily trends are negative and projecting drops to new lows. With Gold’s recent peak, a ‘c = a’ wave target (new decline = initial decline) projects a drop to ~1467.0/GCZ. That is exactly where the previous high (July 19) resides – a pivotal level of ‘resistance turned into support’… that is also near where the ascending weekly 21 High MAC should be. So, it has the potential to be a very decisive price point for Gold in October.
In addition, this has been the primary downside objective since the peak was set in late-Aug./early-Sept. (“Gold declining to (at least) 1460 – 1470/GCZ”) – fulfilling a larger-degree wave target.
As expected, Gold has already begun to corroborate that with other indicators like the weekly HLS. For the coming week, the weekly HLS (that maintains influence for two weeks) is at 1462.1/GCZ. Silver is developing similar weekly HLS targets near 16.60/SIZ.
1 – 5 day Outlook:
Gold & Silver, based on multiple indicators, were expected to rally into Sept. 25 and then reverse lower, entering a new leg down. Sept. 25 was the earliest the daily trend could turn up, making it the prime candidate for a peak (since the daily trend was not expected to turn up).
At the same time, Gold’s daily 21 MAC was flattening and preparing to turn down. The inversely-correlated daily 21 MARC was surging to begin the week, making it likely that the related 21 MAC would turn down on Sept. 24 or 25.
And there was the latest phase of the high-high-high-high Cycle Progression. In the case of Silver, Sept. 24/25 was also the next phase of a similar 20 – 21 day high (July 3) – high (July 24) – high (Aug. 13) – high (Sept. 4) Cycle Progression.
The combination of all those factors projected another couple days of upside to begin the week and then a reversal lower on Sept. 25. Gold & Silver obliged, rallying into Sept. 24/25 and immediately reversing lower. The daily 21 MACs turned down at the same time.
Silver has since dropped to new lows (for this correction) as Gold is approaching related lows…
The XAU also turned back down on Sept. 25, in line with multiple indicators. It reached its upside target and turned its daily 21 MAC down on Sept. 24, setting an intraday peak at 97.90/XAU when the daily 21 High MARC was at 98.06/XAU.
Like Gold, that was one of the key indicators helping to time and pinpoint a peak and project a new 1 – 2 week decline.
The intermediate outlook is still for a drop to at least 86.00 – 86.80/XAU, and potentially back to 80.25 – 80.80/XAU. The coming week’s HLS is at 86.26/XAU, reinforcing this initial downside target.
It is expected to spike to new lows at some point between now and Oct. 4 – perpetuating an 18 – 19 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. Daily (geometric) cycles pinpoint Oct. 1 or 2 as the ideal date for that next 1 – 2 week (or longer) low.”
Precious metals confirm multi-month cycles peaking in late-Aug./early-Sept. and project substantial declines. Intervening bounce into Sept. 24/25 fulfilled, signaling near-term drop to 1467/GCZ. What is likely to occur in Gold after it reaches 1467/GCZ?
How is Oct. – Dec. 2019 Outlook Becoming Clearer?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.