Gold Rallies as Dollar Poised to Confirm Major Decline in 2025.
02-13-25 – “The Dollar Index is in limbo after surging to its weekly LHR (weekly extreme upside target at 109.78/DXH) and monthly SPR (109.83/DXH) to begin the week/month and reversing lower. It needs to turn its intra-month trend down, with a daily close below 107.15/DXH, to confirm a new multi-week top.
The Dollar Index has already fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for a multi-month (6 – 12 month) low in late-September/early-October ‘24 followed by a rally into mid-January 2025.
It needs to ultimately turn its weekly trend down (not possible until Feb 21st at earliest; trigger point not yet established) to confirm that a multi-month top is in place and a new decline is taking hold.
That would be the next validation to the 2025 outlook for a new Dollar decline and corresponding rally in Gold and key currencies.
The Euro is the inverse and retested its January low (in early-Feb) before rebounding. It needs a daily close above 1.0464/ECH to signal that a new multi-week low is intact…
A low at any time in this 2-month period would also perpetuate a 28 – 29-month high-high-low-low-(low; Jan/Feb ’25) Cycle Progression… so the Euro is likely tracing out a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottoming formation…
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin set its highest daily close on January 21st – 6 months/180 degrees from a previous high daily close (July 22nd) – but did not close above its mid-December (intraday) high, ushering in the potential for a larger-magnitude wave ‘5’ peak in late-2024. It also fulfilled a ~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression – reinforcing that conclusion.
Prior to that, Ether peaked in December after retesting its March ’24 (secondary) peak – while completing a ~3-year low (4Q ’18) – high (4Q ’21) – (high; 4Q 2024) Cycle Progression and signaling a multi-month (or longer) peak. It has already plunged back to its 2024 lows and remains weak as cryptos confirm ongoing analysis for a drop in 1Q ‘25.
On a broader basis, Cryptos are steadily confirming ongoing analysis for a surge in 4Q 2024 followed by a downturn beginning in January 2025. That was projected to spur an initial drop into the period of Feb 5 – 10th (fulfilled last week) and ultimately into early-March ’25.
At its peak, Bitcoin fulfilled all of what was expected from a wave ‘V’ rally – a culminating advance that originated at the wave ‘IV’ low in July/August ‘24 in precise sync with its ~10-month high-low-low-low-(low; July/Aug ’24) Cycle Progression.
That August ’24 low spurred a multi-month surge into Nov/Dec 2024 – the same time of year in which Bitcoin set major highs in 2017 & 2021 and intervening lows in 2018 & 2022. An overlapping ~10.5-month/~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression allowed for a final divergent spike high in January, which took place on January 20/21st.
In doing so, Bitcoin fulfilled another form of wave similarity – rallying for the same magnitude ($55,00 – $60,000/BT) as it did in March ‘20 – April ‘21 AND in Nov ‘22 – March ‘24. The peak near 108,000/BT precisely matched the magnitude of its previous (‘22 – ‘24) advance… a trio of similar advances that increased the likelihood for a major peak.
That crescendo was/is expected to time a major peak in cryptos and occurred precisely with a major bullish fundamental – the inauguration of President Trump.
Markets usually top on good news and bottom on bad news.
From the intraday peaks to last week’s intraday low, Bitcoin dropped ~15% in two weeks. However, that is nothing compared to the losses in other cryptos as Ether, Litecoin & XRP plunged ~45% from their highs, Solana gave up over 40% and Dogecoin plummeted over 55%.
Those plunges reinforce that a 5th wave top is intact and a larger magnitude correction is underway, in sync with related analysis and cycles from 4Q 2024. A daily 21 MAC/21MARC combo in Bitcoin points to February 13 – 21st as being the latest vulnerable time when another sharp sell-off is a higher likelihood.
Gold & Silver remain divergent with Silver in a multi-month trading range, ushered in before and after both metals fulfilled multi-month cycle highs in late-October ’24.
Gold remains positive and broke out to new highs in late-January/early-February – when daily cycles again turned positive – fulfilling its bullish weekly trend pattern.
Gold & Silver have traded in different wave structures with Silver in a more bearish setup – both wave structure and weekly trend structure – while Gold remained in a positive weekly trend during and after its November correction. (At the time, Gold matched its previous primary-wave correction – fulfilling the primary downside targets for its correction and creating symmetry between sell-offs.)…
The XAU & HUI remain in multi-week uptrends after turning their weekly trends back up in mid-January. They have entered the time when the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARCs could shift from being supportive to applying downward pressure if they overtake the levels of current prices.
The XAU has retested monthly resistance (162.82 – 164.69) while attacking weekly resistance (166.37 – 167.21) but would not show weakness – or a reversal lower – until a daily close below 159.80/XAU. Until that occurs, the trends remain positive.”
Gold, Silver & XAU are signaling divergent outlooks with Gold remaining bullish and reinforcing its multi-month & multi-year uptrend while Silver is rallying in a likely ‘B’ wave advance (that should ultimately give way to a ‘C’ wave decline below its Dec ’24 low and back to its early-Aug ’24 low). The XAU is projecting a pullback low in Feb/March ‘25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
It’s mid-November ’24 low created a third successive (higher) low and signaled the onset of a new 3 – 6 month advance that could stretch into early-May ‘25. The Dollar rallied into January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and setting the stage for a major decline in 2025… that has likely begun. See current publications for the most updated analysis.
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