Gold Rallying into Late-October ’24 Cycles; Dollar Setting Multi-Month Low!
09-29-24 – Throughout the 2010’s and early-2020’s, multi-year, multi-decade & multi-generational cycles had forecast a major top for the US Dollar to take hold in late-2022/early-2023. It did exactly that!
Chart-based sell signals were triggered in late-2022 and were followed by a ~20-month topping phase that was finally confirmed on August 30, 2024. Now comes the ‘reality’…
On October 22 – 24, 2024, the BRICS nations will meet in Russia for their annual summit. A lot of speculation is that they will announce the introduction of ‘the Unit’ – a gold-backed pseudo-cryptocurrency (not exactly one) to compete with the US Dollar for global trade.
While that speculation is running rampant, and the reality – at least right now – will likely not meet the hype, it is another ‘BRIC’ in the wall being slowly erected around US global hegemony. At the core of every development are China and Russia.
Another related development is the viability of Project mBridge – a multi-central bank digital currency (CBDC… not to be confused with CBDs that were all the rage a few years ago) between China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong & Thailand… with 31 observing members waiting in the wings.
The handwriting is on the wall.
The US Dollar has been weighed & found wanting… an eerie similarity to the Babylonian Empire in the book of Daniel.
Two Are Better Than One (Synergy)
Similar to that ancient time, when the Babylonian Kingdom was overtaken by the Medes and the Persians, it is a pair of nations – China & Russia, along with a host of allies – that are steadily chipping away at Dollar supremacy… and nothing is likely to derail that forward momentum.
Ironically (though not really when you consider a typical ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ reaction), the charts are showing that the US Dollar Index is nearing a multi-month low as Gold is poised to set a multi-month peak… no later than early-November. It could arrive a little sooner.
There could be final spikes that create those turning points – as/if/after a BRICS announcement materializes. Or, the expectation could be overdone and the lack of a dramatic announcement could also usher in those shifts.
In either case, the Dollar is still in the early stages of what is likely to be a multi-year decline.
At the same time, Gold – one of the best vehicles by which to assess the true value of the Dollar – is in the 9th year of a major advance (since its low in late-2015) and the 2nd year of a corroborating advance that began in late-2022.
In both cases, those advances could last into 2027/2028.
40 & 80-Year Cycles of Currency War
As explained before, 2024 is a momentous time for the US Dollar and global foreign exchange… at least from a cyclic perspective. The Bretton Woods Agreement was forged in 1944, in the midst of World War II. It was the first negotiated monetary union… an archetype of agreements to come.
This one had Gold at its core and the US Dollar as the ultimate ‘facilitator’. And, it was the latest phase of a 40-Year Cycle and an 80-Year Cycle – both of which had/have dramatic impacts.
1944 was 80 years from the Coinage Act and Banking Act of 1864, which was 80 years from the founding of the Bank of North America and establishment of the first mint in 1782/1783.
The 40-Year & 80-Year Cycles tied together decisive moves in America’s currency devolution and central banking ‘evolution’. The 1864 Banking Act established key federal banking laws that would last until the creation of the Federal Reserve.
That 1864 Act also included the key criteria for ‘establishing a national banking association’. It ushered in the beginning of the ‘national banking era’… that continues to the present… 160 years later.
2024 ushers in similar centralized banking cycles… on a global scale.
(Gold?) BRIC by BRIC
BRICS nations are pushing to unify other nations against US Dollar supremacy and provide more monetary freedom for bilateral trade agreements.
1784 began an era when coordinated banking and a gold-backed currency were codified into the governance of the 13 US Colonies. 80 years later…
1864 began an era of national banking associations in the US – reacting to critiques about a highly ‘inelastic currency’ throughout the nation. It would begin the subtle transition away from Gold.
1944 began an era of unified global banking (the IMF & World Bank were created at that time) and currency coordination that was originally (for the first ~30 years) based on Gold. Gold was the basis for the US Dollar and the other global currency values were pegged to the US Dollar.
All that came to a screeching halt when Nixon ‘shut the gold window’ in 1971. That led to the abandonment of Bretton Woods in 1973.
2024 is 80 years from the start of that gold-based global monetary ‘union’.
2024 is also 160 & 240 years (80-Year Cycles) from major events in the evolution of a national and then international currency & monetary union.
2024 could time a dramatic shift for Gold, the US Dollar, and/or the global monetary order.
Based on the Dollar/Gold relationship, the US Dollar has been in a downtrend since October 2023… on a slightly larger scale since October 2022… on a modestly larger scale since December 2015… on an even larger scale since October 2008… and on a major, multi-decade basis since October 1999.
Will October 2024 time another dramatic shift?…
Gold & Silver continue to reinforce analysis that projected major, multi-year lows to take hold in late-2022 and lead to a multi-year advance… which has been unfolding since then. Ultimately, these trends and cycles could spur higher prices into 2027 – when major cycles converge.
On a 2 – 3 month basis, Silver prevented its weekly trend from turning down – projecting a subsequent rally in September… Combined with Gold’s mid-September action, this is skewing expectations surrounding October 2024 cycles in Gold…
What is appearing a bit more likely now, however, is that Gold reverses back up on October 1st (without giving a daily close below 2646/GCZ) and then rallies higher in October 2024 – setting a peak that fulfills a ~1-year/~12.5-month high (Aug ‘19) – high (Aug ‘20) – low (Aug ‘21) – low (Sept ‘22) – low (Oct ‘23) – (high: October 2024) Cycle Sequence – shifting polarity (high, not low) one interval early.
That would still reinforce the potential for a future peak in ~October 2025 and would still be consistent with all price and wave projections. It would primarily show that Gold would stretch its ~2-year advance by a few more weeks… before creating a higher magnitude correction.”
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
Late-2023 was projected to reaffirm this analysis when Middle East War Cycles were projected to reignite (in October 2023… exactly when war broke out)…
Middle East War Cycles Collide in Late-2023
In the subsequent months, Gold powerfully validated that cycle and projected a breakout surge in the months/year to follow the early-October 2023 low…
Solar, Seismic & Gold Intensity Cycles
All that sets the stage for what has been projected for Gold (as well as the US Dollar, Bitcoin, etc.) in 4Q 2024… and throughout 2025. The current phase of that outlook should spur a final rally in Gold – leading into late-October 2024 when multi-month & multi-year cycles converge. That will likely time a 3 – 6 month peak and a November/December ’24 correction in Gold & Silver. What then?
See current publications for the most updated analysis.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.