Gold Remains Strong as Silver Congests; Dollar & Stocks Project Impending Plunges!
03-06-25 – “2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin… a market that has exhibited a close connection to specific stock indexes.
2025/2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last significant recession in the US… and has been projected (since 2023) to time the next major recession – making this cycle accurate 13 of the 14 times it has recurred since the founding of America (1940/1941 was the only exception).
2025/26 has been forecast, for the past two years, to trigger the second major wave of stagflation in the US (linked to diverse cycles) – a topic that is suddenly being discussed in economic circles (cycles and technical analysis usually identify these things long before the fundamentals become obvious).
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.
From a much broader perspective, there are some unusual (though limited) parallels between the current markets and a key aspect of the 1920’s and a different (key) aspect of the 1990’s. This was discussed in the Feb 19 & 26, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay Alerts and in the March ’25 INSIIDE Track.
If a 1 – 2 month low is set in the March/April time frame (most synergistic convergence of cycles is in late-March/early-April ’25), it would add another level of corroboration to future cycles bottoming in [reserved for subsribers]…
The Dollar Index has powerfully confirmed that it set a secondary peak in early-February after surging to its weekly LHR (weekly extreme upside target at 109.78/DXH) and monthly SPR (109.83/DXH) to begin the month and reversing lower.
It had already fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for a multi-month (6 – 12 month) low in late-September/early-October ‘24 followed by a rally into mid-January 2025 – when a multi-month top was projected to take hold.
The January ’25 peak completed back-to-back advances of equal duration (16 weeks each) and perpetuated an ~8-week low-low-high-low-high Cycle Sequence… portending a convincing (initial) sell-off in 1Q ‘25.
The daily trend has remained negative since mid-January and recently spurred accelerated selling surrounding the latest round of tariffs and tariff threats. A weekly close below 106.09/DXM is needed to turn the weekly trend down and confirm a multi-month peak. (That is a lagging/confirming indicator that often reverses near the end of a 1 – 2 month decline and just before an initial low and reactive rebound.)
On a longer-term basis, the January ’25 peak is corroborating the potential for a 2025 sell-off AND the possibility for a 6 – 12 month or multi-year low to take hold in late-2025.
In order to fulfill that, the Dollar Index would have to fulfill a number of technical and cyclical criteria along the way. One of those would be to drop below the mid-2023 low.
Here are a few timing factors that could usher in a decisive low in 4Q 2025… ideally in November ’25:
- A drop into November 2025 would create a form of wave symmetry with the Dollar Index declining for ~10 months – from its January ’25 high – and matching the ~10-month duration of the Sept ’22 – July ’23 decline.
- A low in Nov ’25 would fulfill a ~14-month low (July ’23) – low (Sept ’24) – (low; Nov ’25) Cycle Progression.
- A low in 4Q ’25 would fulfill a ~9-quarter low (2Q ’21) – low (3Q ’23) – (low; 4Q ’25) Cycle Progression.
- Other timing relationships & indicators point to 4Q ’25 as the ideal time for a 1 – 2 year low…
Bitcoin & Ether fulfilled analysis for sharp sell-offs into early-February and then into early-March… but could still see additional downside. As stated last week, Bitcoin dropped right to its 50% retracement level (~79,000), the likely place for a quick bounce.
That rebound quickly took hold and saw Bitcoin rally 50% of its decline but quickly level off. It has also tested its declining daily 21 Low MAC, during this bounce, and remains below it. March 6/7th was expected to usher in a new wave down (see 3/05/25 Weekly Re-Lay Alert) and could spur a quick drop into March 10 – 13th – when another 1 – 2 week low is likely.
Bitcoin is still expected to test 72,000 – 74,500/BT…
Gold & Silver rebounded after initial sell-offs – Gold from new all-time highs and Silver from a secondary (possible ‘B’ wave) peak. Silver remains in a weekly downtrend – an indicator that argues for a drop below the mid-December low before any new highs are seen. However, that indicator needs corroboration (synergy)…
Two key factors (among several) were/are expected to influence Silver’s action between mid-February and late-March:
— Silver could ultimately match the duration of its wave II (May – Oct ’23) correction, as wave 4s (IV) and wave 2s (II) often ‘tend toward equality’… Silver could again adhere to the ‘90/10 Rule of Cycles’ – experiencing a large percentage of the latest decline near the end of the cycle…
On a larger cyclic basis, a Silver low in March/April ’25 would reinforce multi-year cycles peaking in March/April 2026, including a unique ~5-year cycle evolving since 2001.”
Gold remains bullish as Silver remains neutral, rallying in a likely ‘B’ wave advance that is projected to give way to a ‘C’ wave decline below its Dec ’24 low and back to its early-Aug ’24 low (~27.60/SIK). A multi-month Silver low could/should stretch into April ’25 with the sharpest drop most likely in the final 1 – 2 weeks leading into that low.
Early-April ‘25 is also the time when a sharp stock market plunge could accelerate into a multi-month bottom. The final indexes – S+P 500 & NQ-100 – fulfilled their upside objectives on Feb 18/19th and quickly triggered weekly sell signals that reinforce the outlook for 20 – 25% plunges into early-April ’25 – with daily & weekly cycles most synergistic on April 3rd – 7th, ‘25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
Gold’s mid-November ’24 low created a third successive (higher) low and signaled the onset of a new 3 – 6 month advance – projected to last into late-April/early-May ‘25. The Dollar rallied into January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and ushering in the time for a projected major decline in 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is fulfilling its related outlook for a major sell-off in 1Q 2025 that could attack decisive support near 74,500/BTC before a bottom takes hold.
See current publications for the most updated analysis.
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