Gold & Silver Fulfill Minimum Downside Targets; Signal Multi-Week Lows.
08-26-23 – “Gold & Silver remain in 3 – 6-month corrective phases from their cycle highs on May 3 – 5. Those highs fulfilled multi-month Cycle Progressions and were projected to usher in an overall sell-off that should lead to a subsequent multi-month low (the expected completion of a ~3.5-month decline) on Aug 14 – 25, ’23.
By setting lows on Aug 15 – 21, Gold & Silver fulfilled the latest phase of a consistent 22 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-low-(
That dovetailed with Silver’s weekly HLS indicator, projecting a (minimum) 1 – 2 month low by/on Aug 18, ‘23. Silver fulfilled that, with an intraday low on Aug 15, and projected a sharp, initial rally from that mid-Aug ’23 low into early-Sept ‘23. The recent declines fulfilled two crucial indicators, reinforcing analysis for a multi-month low…
- Those new lows fulfilled the minimum necessary for a ‘c’ wave decline (a-b-c correction from early-May ’23 cycle high) after both metals completed 5-wave advances from late-2022 into early-March ’23.
- The new lows fulfilled the weekly downtrend patterns in both metals… During the rallies into mid-July, Gold failed to neutralize its weekly downtrend as Silver twice neutralized its weekly downtrend but failed to turn it up. Both patterns argued for a drop back to the late-June ’23 lows, with Silver signaling a retest of its lows would likely create a bottom.
Looking out over the coming weeks & months, Silver appears to be providing the clearest clues. It set a secondary peak in mid-July, fulfilling a ~3-month/~90-degree Silver cycle from its mid-April & mid-Jan ’23 highs. Those highs were preceded by lows in mid-Oct & mid-July ’22… and a high in mid-April ’22… a consistent string of ~3-month turning points that preceded multi-week declines.
That mid-July ’23 high perpetuated a ~3-month/ ~90-degree low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that projects a future high in mid-Oct ’23.** The midpoint of that cycle was/is projected to produce an intervening peak, after an initial surge, in early-Sept ’23.
That early-Sept potential high dovetails with the next phase of an overlapping ~4-month/17 – 18-week low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – peaking on Aug 28 – Sept 8, ’23.
Early-Sept ‘23 is also the midpoint of its over-arching ~8-month/35 – 37-week low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that projects a future peak in Jan ’24.
[**With diverse cycles peaking in mid-Oct – early-Nov ’23, it would not be surprising to see Silver do something very similar to what it did in Jan/Feb AND in April/May ’23 – when it set a series of successive highs at the same price levels.]
The recent price action of Gold & Silver is what powerfully corroborated mid-Aug ’23 cycle lows. Silver barely spiked below its late-June low, showing resilience on a 1 – 2 month basis, as Gold dropped right to its Jan ’23 low (~1914/GCZ) – pivotal support for the intra-year trend.
Silver is validating a scenario where it could see a quick surge back to [reserved for subscribers].” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Gold & Silver fulfilled the ~3-month projection (since 3 – 6 month cycle highs in early-May ’23) for an overall decline into August 17 – 24 and have reached the minimum downside targets leading into those cycles. A quick surge into early-Sept ’23 is expected to produce a subsequent, multi-week high (and reinforce a future cycle high in late-Oct/early-Nov ’23… as well as in Jan ‘24).
Geopolitical cycles on Aug 22 – 24, ’23 were fulfilled (when Vladimir Putin was projected to ‘make a statement’ with some sort of action that alters the landscape moving forward and starts the clock ticking on a more significant event leading into future cycle highs) and could help support an initial rally.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! The setup of the XAU & HUI concurs.
Where are Metals Likely to Rally in 4Q ’23?
How Does 90/10 Rule of Cycles Project Sharp Rally in October ’23?
Why are early-Nov ’23 Cycle Highs the Key to 2024 Outlook?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.