Gold Signals 1 – 2 Month Peak; Reinforces Analysis for Higher High in March ’20.
01/11/20 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver surged into Jan. 6 – 10, perpetuating multiple weekly Cycle Progressions and setting the stage for an intermediate peak. This comes after Gold went through a textbook, parabolic surge – another example of the 90/10 Rule of Cycles (where 80 – 90% of a price move occurs during the final 10 – 20% of a cycle).
Each week, it rallied enough to stay ahead of the rising weekly 21 MARC – an indicator that could still play an influential role if Gold’s advance falters. Several factors indicate Gold & Silver should at least hesitate (for 1 – 2 weeks, minimum) after this latest surge. One of those involves weekly cycles, another involves weekly LHRs, and a third involves the weekly trend patterns.
While surging into the convergence of a 36-week low (Dec. 11 – 15, ‘17) – low (Aug. 18 – 22, ‘18) – low (Apr. 22 – 26, ‘19) – high (Jan. 6 – 10, ’20) Cycle Progression as well as an ~18-week/~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression – on Jan. 6 – 10 – Gold & Silver attacked their weekly LHRs on Dec. 27, signaling that a blow-off top should take hold in the following 2 – 3 weeks.
Silver held that weekly LHR while Gold closed above it, highlighting Gold’s strength and the unfolding acceleration that would likely yield a final surge. Both also generated weekly trend signals that identified Jan. 6 – 10as a prime candidate for an intermediate peak. With the weekly LHRs hit, Gold had one other extreme target…
As the month of January began, Gold’s monthly LHR (extreme upside target for Jan. ’20) set up at 1604.9/GCG. – an extreme target generated from the Nov. ’19 low (1453.1/GCG) and Dec. ’19 high (1529.0/GCG).
If Gold were able to test and hold that extreme level, it would reinforce the likelihood for a higher magnitude peak in the ensuing 2 – 3 months (March/April 2020??)
Gold spiked up to this extreme target leading into mid-week… and then quickly reversed lower. At least on a multi-week basis, that is a likely peak.
Silver is corroborating that, having rallied long enough and far enough to twice neutralize its weekly downtrend before spiking higher and reversing lower (without turning its weekly trend up). It now enters a two-week period when the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC has the best chance to exceed current price action and begin to turn the weekly 21 MAC down.
1 – 5 day Outlook:
Gold & Silver rallied into Jan. 6/7, perpetuating a ~4-week (27 – 28 day) low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver… and then reversing lower. It would take daily closes below 1519.7/GCG & 17.83/ SIH to turn the intra-month trends down and validate that scenario. There could be more volatile consolidation near the highs before that occurs.
The XAU fulfilled its weekly trend buy signal (generated in mid-Oct.) by surging to new multi-year highs and the highest level since Aug. ’16 – into Dec. 31/Jan. 2. It attacked its weekly & monthly LHRs while fulfilling upside targets at 105.71 – 107.14/XAU.
It set its highest close at the upper end of that target range and spiked to within 2.0 points of 110.0 – a 1 – 2 year upside objective dating back to 2018. As a result, a multi-week peak was expected to take hold. That was quickly confirmed last week.
It is possible that peak fulfilled projections for a ‘5th’ wave advance (stemming from its Sept. ’18 low) into early-2020. Like Gold, the XAU traced out a textbook Elliott Wave formation with the Oct. low representing the ’4th’ wave low of an overall 5-wave advance.
It was at that time the XAU was forecast to enter a 5th wave advance and make it back up to 107.83 – 110.00 – its 6 – 12 month LLH objective and 1 – 2 year upside target. That was detailed in late-Oct. (Nov. ’19 INSIIDE Track)…
In doing so, the XAU neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but did not turn that trend down. That was/is the ideal scenario for a multi-month low and a subsequent rally back to its late-Aug. high (102.29/XAU).
Like Silver, the XAU is tracing out a textbook Elliott Wave formation with the Oct. low representing the ’4th’ wave low of an overall 5-wave advance. That ushered in the ’5th’ wave rally… Its intra-year & 6 – 12 month LLH objective is at 107.83/XAU (65.85 low – 86.84 low – 107.83 projected high).
The XAU’s recent ’4th’ wave decline almost perfectly matched the magnitude of the previous ’2nd’ wave decline – providing additional corroboration to this wave interpretation. [Feb. – May ‘19 decline (’2nd’ wave) from 80.76 to 65.85 = drop of 14.91 points. Aug.. – Oct ‘19 decline (’4th’ wave) from 102.29 to 86.84 = drop of 15.41 points.]”
That coincided with the primary Elliott Wave upside objective (‘5th’ wave = ‘1st’ wave magnitude, projecting a peak around 107.01/XAU) and was reinforced by weekly & monthly LHRs hit in late-Dec. and the overall ~110.0/XAU objective for this advance from Sept. ’18.
All of that synergy, in such a tight range, helped pinpoint the XAU peak at 108.35, with its highest daily close at 107.17/XAU. It reversed lower to begin January – again leading Gold – and quickly turned its daily trend down. It reinforced that this past week, turning its intra-month trend down.”
Gold, Silver & XAU fulfilling analysis for 1 – 2 month peak, in line with weekly & monthly cycles and reaching multi-month and multi-year upside targets. Gold’s monthly LHR test increases likelihood for subsequent (higher) high in March 2020.
How Long Should Correction Last… Before Surge into March ‘20?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.