Gold & Silver 21 MARCs & Weekly Cycles Project Bullish Period in Oct ’23.
09-30-23 – “Gold & Silver remain in multi-month corrective phases from their cycle highs on May 3 – 5. After holding its late-Aug low for ~5 weeks, Gold violated that bottom – exhibiting additional, unexpected weakness and spurring a sharp spike lower.
This has added another leg to the ongoing retracement of the Sept/Oct ’22 – early-May ’23 rally in Gold & Silver. That was a 5-wave advance, likely representing the first primary rally (wave ‘I’ of ‘V’) of a developing larger-magnitude multi-year advance.
That larger advance could also unfold in 5 waves with the current decline – since early-May ’23 – being wave ‘II’. Wave ‘II’ declines are notoriously difficult to predict since they could retrace as little as ~1/3 (of the preceding wave ‘I’) or as much as all of it. [A 100% retracement is not as common although Gold’s initial rally and decline – in Sept – Nov ’22 – was an example of that.]
In most cases, wave ‘II’s retrace somewhere between 50% and .786 – more commonly .618 – .786. In the case of Gold, it has just retraced .618 on a contract basis (1870/GCZ) and could drop as low as a .786 retracement (1800/GCZ). Elliott Wave is not the only approach factored into this but it does provide a range to monitor.
From a timing perspective, Gold was/is expected to set its two primary highs for 2023 in early-May & early-Nov ’23. An early-Nov ’23 high is still likely if Gold bottoms soon and begins a multi-week rally…
Silver’s Sept ‘23 low fulfilled a 12-month high-low-low-low-(low; Sept ’23) Cycle Progression and a ~6-month high (Sept ’19) – low (Mar ’20) low (Sept ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept ’21) – high (Mar ’22) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Mar ’23) – (low; Sept ’23) Cycle Sequence… in focus since late-2022.
[Even if it spikes below that in early-Oct ’23, that monthly cycle would remain intact until Silver gives a monthly close below the Sept ’23 low.]
If Silver bottoms in the coming week (Oct 2 – 6, ’23), it would complete a .618 retracement in time – 35 weeks up & 22 weeks down – while fulfilling an ~11-week high-high-(low) Cycle Progression AND a ~15-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… it still leaves open the potential for the majority of any advance – leading into an early-Nov ’23 cycle high – to occur in the final weeks of that cycle, fulfilling the 90/10 Rule of Cycles.
This recent action increases the potential that Gold’s early-Nov ’23 cycle high will time a lower peak in Gold. Silver is similar but maintains a small chance for rallying back to its early-May peak in the next 5 – 6 weeks, but only if a quick reversal higher is seen AND the weekly 21 MACs turn positive in mid-Oct ‘23.
The XAU & HUI also showed additional weakness after rebounding to the weekly LHR (119.27/XAU) on Sept 15 and reversing lower after testing the declining weekly 21 Low MAC. Cycles that had projected a multi-week low in mid-Aug ’23 could not elevate to a higher magnitude reversal.
They remain in corrective phases that have been in effect since their mid-April & early-May ’23 highs and which also appear to be ‘II’ waves of a larger, developing wave structure on a multi-year basis.
In conjunction with the weekly cycles discussed in Silver, there is a larger-magnitude monthly cycle that has been discussed throughout the past 5 – 7 years (particularly in Gold). This is a 12.5 – 13.5-month/~54 – 59-week cycle that has recently created a high (Aug ‘19) – high (Aug ‘20) – low (Aug/Sept ‘21) – low (Sept ‘22) Cycle Progression that could soon time another low in the first half of Oct ‘23.”
Gold & Silver are approaching bullish cycles that begin in early-Oct ‘23… and are expected to spur a sharp multi-week rally into early-Nov ’23. Middle East Cycles collide in Oct ’23 and also in 2024. The US Dollar could ultimately suffer.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! The 90/10 Rule of Cycles in Gold continues to project a sharp advance in October ’23 – in the final weeks leading into a (potential) early-Nov ’23 peak. The weekly 21 MARCs concur.
Where are Metals Likely to Rally in 4Q ’23? Will Middle East War Cycles Have an Impact??
How Does 90/10 Rule of Cycles Project Sharp Rally in October ’23?
Why are early-Nov ’23 Cycle Highs the Key to 2024 Outlook?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.