Gold/Silver Attack Upside Targets

02/11/16 INSIIDE Track Intra-month Update:   “Stock Indices remain in weekly downtrends – the most important factor that should be the primary focus – consolidating above their Jan. 20^th lows… although just retesting those levels (in most Indices)…

There remain conflicting signals that could extend this volatility – alternating between new lows in some Indices & new (rebound) highs in others even as an overall bear market continues to unfold. That was just reinforced – again – with the DJTA setting new rebound highs yesterday and then triggering a reversal lower.

Subsequently, many Indices dropped to new lows today – initially fulfilling a 22-day high (Dec. 29^th)–low (Jan. 20^th)–low (Feb. 11^th) Cycle Progression… as several Indices – DJIA & SP 500 included – also fulfilled the potential for successive, 14-week declines (mid-May–late-Aug. ’15 & early-Nov.–Feb. 8–12, ’16).  In the case of the NYSE, that is the mid-point/half-cycle of its 27–28 week low-low (Oct. ’14)–high (late-April ’15)–high (early-Nov. ’15) Cycle Progression.

So, another low could be forming in the DJIA & SP 500.  Since the Transports did not even neutralize their daily uptrend in today’s sell-off, this could spur another bounce in that Index… perpetuating this whipsawing action.  This potential – for violent, two-sided trading – exists until the DJTA turns its daily trend back down…

Bonds & Notes remain strong, reinforcing their weekly & intra-year uptrends while adding significance to the Nov. ’15 cycle lows.  As discussed before, this action is increasing the potential for an overall advance – on balance – into Dec. ‘16/Jan. ’17.

While that does not mean they will head higher all year, it does mean that a final peak should wait until then.  In the interim, geometric cycles (~90 & ~180-degree multiples) are arguing for intervening extremes in late-March (high or pullback low?), late-June (low) & late-Dec. (high?).

On a short-term basis, Bonds & Notes have spiked up to extremes and could see a moderate pullback.  If so, I will be watching Feb. 19^th/22^nd for a potential low – perpetuating a ~7.5 week/51–54 day low-low-low-(low?) Cycle Progression.

The Dollar Index followed through to the downside after turning its weekly & intra-year trends lower.  It remains in the same trading range (~8.00 basis points) in which it has been stuck since late-Jan. 2015.  The weekly 21 MAC is still sloping upward but market action – in relation to that channel – is neutral.  That also reeks of consolidation.

The weekly HLS indicator projects an intermediate low in the coming weeks.  If that takes hold this week, it would perpetuate a 23–24 week high-low-(low) Cycle Progressionand project a subsequent 23–24 week rally into July/3Q 2016… the same time frame that was the focus of recent INSIIDE Track analysis.  This is also intriguing in light of Gold & Silver surging to monthly extremes & critical wave objectives today (~1258.0/GC & 16.03–16.100/SI).

The Euro fulfilled what had been anticipated since the beginning of 2016 – needing a rally to a weekly LHR (and to its ‘c’ wave objective at (1.1276/ECH) before a new decline was capable of taking hold.  It accomplished that last week and, in the process, also completed a .618 rebound (1.1287/ECH) of its Aug.–Dec. decline.

The Euro could spike as high as its monthly LHR (1.1460/ECH) – which is relatively close to its weekly 21 High MARC (1.1497/ECH) but is now perpetuating a 24-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that could prompt an ensuing decline after this week.  Ideally, it would peak a little below those levels.

The Yen has surged after pulling back to test & hold its weekly HLS in late-Jan.  That further reinforces its early-Dec. 2015 cycle low and projects focus to early-March &early-June 2016 – the next phases of its ~90-degree cycle.  The Yen has just tested its weekly LHR (90.06/JYH), setting the stage for an intermediate peak.

Gold & Silver continue to accelerate their advances, nearly fulfilling expectations for an initial 11–12 week (ideally longer) advance from their Dec. lows.  A high (an initialone) in Feb. would validate multiple weekly & monthly cycles… while setting the stage for a subsequent advance, later on.  Crucial price objectives were just hit today, ushering in the possibility for a peak at any time.

Silver is increasing the likelihood that it has set a Major bottom, fulfilling multiple yearly & monthly cycles while forming a bullish wedge and then triggering a 3–6 month buy signal on Dec. 11/14^th.

That is one reason why Silver was expected to see a surge to its monthly LHR in February – at 15.550/SIH… and up to its first wave objective (Dec. ’15–Feb. ’16 rally = Aug.–Oct. ’15 rally = Mar.–May ’15 rally) at 16.030/SIH.

In doing so, Silver has created 3 successive, ~2-month rallies of ~$2.40/oz each.  Of course, that means Silver needs to exceed that target to confirm that a larger-degree advance is in its early stages.  Silver attacked that level today, setting the stage for an initial peak.

Meanwhile, Gold – which already exceeded previous intermediate advances – had its sights on matching & exceeding the previous rally of one higher degree – the Dec. ’13–Mar. ’14 rally from 1181.4/GC to 1392.6/GC.

In order to match that advance, Gold needed to rally from 1046.4/GCJ to 1257.6/GCJ.  It just hit 1260.8/GCJ, matching and exceeding that advance and adding reinforcement to the outlook for 2016.   That also coincided with the weekly LHR (1252.4/GCJ & 16.100/SIH).

This harkens back to a preceding discussion on Gold & Silver and what it would take to confirm that 2016 would provide the largest advances since in at least 3–4 years. Today’s action has provided a decisive level of fulfillment to what was discussed in September.

At the time, I was elaborating on the topic of a 4-Shadow signal and how Gold & Silver could extend their (then current) rallies into late-October and trigger a 4-Shadowsignal… that would then lead to one final low and then an even larger advance immediately after, taking hold in January 2016…

Gold & Silver did extend that advance into late-October and then set the stage for a final decline to new lows… before the real rallying was to begin in Jan. 2016.

All of that was – and now is – closely adhering to the outlook for late-2015/early-2016 and validating expectations for the first impulse (as opposed to a corrective rebound) wave higher in Gold & Silver (since 2011).

Now, Gold & Silver are providing the next higher-degree level of 4-Shadow signal – the action that is expected to follow an original 4-Shadow signal – and confirmation that a multi-month/multi-quarter bottom is in place.  Often, this coincides with an initial top but is followed by a drop to a higher low (and the subsequent onset of another advance)… something that has not been the case for several years.

Combined with other factors & indicators, today’s surge coincided with the Weekly Re-Lay strategy to exit a portion of the Gold & Silver longs (entered in mid-Dec.).  That, too, shows that an initial high could be forming.  But, more confirmation is needed (which is why only a portion of those longs were exited today).

The XAU has completed a similar, higher-degree 4-Shadow signal, rallying slightly more than the Nov. ’14–Jan. ’15 advance.  It continues to exhibit strength after perpetuating a ~30-degree high (Sept. 18^th)–high (Oct. 15/16^th)–low (Nov. 17/18^th)–low (Dec. 17^th)–low (Jan. 19^th) Cycle Progression.”   TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK.

Gold & Silver Fulfill 1Q 2016 Upside Objective; Set Stage for February (Initial) Peak!

Stock Indices Test/Hold Support; New Rebound Expected.  Watch Feb. 12–19^th.