Gold & Silver Bottoming
Gold & Silver Bottoming;
Preparing for New Wave Up…
Rally into May 2018 Likely.
03/10/18 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Gold & Silver have remained above their early-March lows, set while Gold was precisely fulfilling the ideal target for a ‘c’ wave decline (a-b-c correction since Jan. 25) with its spike down to 1300 – 1305.0/GCJ.
From a price perspective, that low fulfilled a ‘c = a’ wave price target (decline = decline) while testing the Nov. ’17 highs – resistance turned into support. It also completed a 50% retracement of its Dec. – Jan. advance.
From a timing perspective, it also completed a ‘c = a’ wave target in time (duration of decline = duration of decline), while bottoming along with daily cycles – on March 1 – 2. Gold rebounded from there and has consistently given weekly closes above 1309.3/GCJ – leaving its intra-year trend neutral (preventing it from turning down).
Silver has also prevented its weekly trend from turning down. In the case of both Gold & Silver, they need to turn their daily trends back up in order to signal that (at least) a 1 – 2 week low is taking hold. That would not occur until daily closes above 1342.0/GCJ & 16.895/SIK. (They are now in a position to turn their daily 21 MACs up on March 12, strengthening the argument for a new advance.)
From a weekly cycle perspective, this also heightens the focus on May 2018 as a critical convergence (or collision) of cycles – the same time that Dollar & Euro cycles project multi-month extremes. As long as Gold’s early-March low holds, it now has an 11-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression targeting May 14 – 18, 2018 for the culmination of the next advance.
That is reinforcing the existing 22-week low (July ’17)–low (Dec. ’17)–(high) Cycle Progression also targeting May 14 – 18, 2018 for the culmination of the next (larger-degree) advance.
A multi-month peak in May 2018 would also fulfill a 36 – 37-week low (Dec. ’16)–high (Sept. ’17)–(high) Cycle Progression and a ~29-month low (late-Jun. ’13)–low (early-Dec. ’15)–(high) Cycle Progression.
That is part of a larger 27 – 29 month high-high-low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression dating back to the Jan. ’04 & May ’16 peaks and the Oct. ’08 low.
Gold continues to trade in the upper 20% of its 3 – 4 year trading range, appearing poised for an accelerated breakout higher. Its weekly trend pattern corroborates that and could be corroborated by the weekly 21 MAC and intra-year trend in the coming weeks.
A weekly close above 1329.1/GCJ would have Gold re-entering its weekly uptrend and giving a weekly close back above its ascending weekly 21 MAC. If that occurs on March 16, it would provide strong validation to the potential for an imminent surge to new 4-year highs.
If Gold can turn its intra-year trend back up – with a weekly close above 1349.7/GCJ – that would signal a larger degree rally and project an accelerated advance in the months to follow.
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The XAU remains weak and sold off into March 7 – 9 but did not make it to new lows. That leaves some ambiguity as to whether an additional spike low is possible in the near-term.
The XAU needs to give a daily close above 81.60 to turn the 2 – 4 week trend up and confirm a bottom. Until that occurs, there remains the risk for an additional spike low in the near term.”
Gold & Silver are setting the stage for new multi-week & multi-month advances that could spur a rally into May 2018. However, progressive confirmation signals are necessary and MUST unfold in a timely manner.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.