Gold & Silver Building Bases; Silver Cycle Low Intact? Prepare for March ’24 Surge.
01-31-24 – “Multi-year trend in Gold & Silver is turning positive, reinforcing projections for major lows in late-2022 with Gold completing a ~2-year ’flat correction’ in 4Q ‘22, when multiple cycles bottomed. Those lows should continue to hold with a stronger advance expected in 2024 and possibly 2025. Watch May – July 2024…
Gold & Silver have been in a multi-month consolidation phase after Gold precisely fulfilling price & timing objectives with its surge into Dec 4, 2023 and up to 2152/GC. The early-December spike high fulfilled acceleration indicators, weekly & monthly LHRs, and multi-month cycle highs.
That early-Dec ‘23 peak fulfilled a ~7-month/~30-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression (Dec 4 – 8, ’23)… that next comes into play in July 2024 – when a higher high appears very likely (with intervening peaks also expected).
That is also the next phase of an overlapping ~14-month low-low-low-low-high-high (March ‘22) – high (May ‘23) – (high; July 2024) Cycle Progression in Gold… AND… would fulfill an over-arching ~28-month low (July ‘17) – low (Nov ‘19) – high (March ‘22) – (high; July 2024) Cycle Progression.
At least initially, a high in 3Q 2024 would also fulfill a ~4-year high (3Q 2012) – high (3Q/July 2016) – high (3Q/Aug 2020) – (high; 3Q/July-August 2024) Cycle Progression.
So, July 2024 (and the weeks or months surrounding it) could be momentous for Gold!…
Silver has begun to rebound in sync with cycles that bottomed on Jan 17 – 24, ’24 – the latest phase of a ~15-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a ~5-week high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… and the final week when the weekly HLS pattern projected a 1 – 2 month low…
If that low holds, it should – based on a normal Cycle Progression evolution – trigger an overall ~15-week advance into the first half of May 2024, a ~1-year/~360-degree cycle from the May 2023 high and 3 years from the May 2021 high. It would also coincide with when multi-year Dollar Index cycles bottom…
Parallels to 2016 – 2020…
On a comparative basis, Gold & Silver are starting this (projected) multi-year advance the same way they started the 2016 – 2020 advance – paralleling the action of 2016 (when the previous wave ‘I’ & ‘II’ of a larger-magnitude advance unfolded).
In 2016, Gold & Silver rallied for 7 – 8 months before selling off for the ensuing ~5 months.
In 2022/2023, Gold & Silver rallied for 7 – 8 months before selling off for the ensuing ~5 months.
In 2016, Gold retraced 70 – 75% of its initial rally during that ~5-month sell-off.
In 2023, Gold retraced 70 – 75% of its initial rally during the ~5-month sell-off into early-October ‘23.
That set the stage for ‘3rd waves’ – on multiple levels to begin to take hold… with the first being an accelerated surge into early-Dec ‘23.
In 2016/2017, Gold subsequently rallied for ~9 months – into Sept 2017 – before setting a 1 – 2 year peak. The parallels could continue…
In 2023/2024, Gold is forecast to rally into July 2024 – a ~9-month advance from its Oct. ‘23 low.
May – July ‘24 is poised to be a pivotal time in metals and currencies (not to mention interest rates, inflation and stock indexes). There is a good chance that several of these markets experience accelerated moves leading into those projected turning points.
On the whole, Gold & Silver continue to reinforce analysis that projected major, multi-year lows to take hold in late-2022 and lead to a series of rallies & pullbacks during the initial phases of what has been forecast to be a larger-magnitude advance.”
Gold & Silver are in multi-month corrections from their early-December ’23 peaks. Silver fulfilled multiple Cycle Progressions with its January ’24 low and should continue to hold that support. Focus remains on March 2024, when multiple indicators (and cycles) should turn more positive.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! This should have a dramatic impact on the US Dollar in 2024/2025. March 2024 could provide the next corroboration to that outlook. Gold is acting as the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’.
How Does Gold Outlook Portend Related Shocks in Other Key Markets??
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside (in 2024) following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
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