Gold & Silver Diverge as Stocks Project 20 – 30% Plunge into Early-April!
02-28-25 – “Gold & Silver – Multi-year trend in Gold & Silver is positive, reinforcing projections for major lows in late-2022 and strong multi-year advances to follow (the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War).
Dollar – Multi-year trend has peaked after reaching major upside target at ~113 in 2022 – the latest phase of a ~7-year cycle – and projecting a multi-year decline to follow. A topping process is unfolding…
Stock Indices are steadily confirming the peaks set in many indexes in November ’24. That fulfilled the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks – setting multi-month highs in 4Q 2024 – that portends (at least) a 20 – 30% decline from those peaks…
If the S+P Midcap drops to ~2750/IDX in 2025, it would fulfill a ~20% decline while returning to a very consistent range parameter that has helped set a series of highs in 2022 & 2023 and then lows in 2024. Monthly HLS levels and the monthly 21 Low MAC & 21 High MARC show that could occur as soon as March/April 2025…
The NQ-100 is another index where the monthly 21 Low MAC & monthly HLS levels identify March/April ‘25 as an ideal time for that target/support to be reached and a multi-month low to take hold.
4-Shadow
The NQ-100 rallying to a slight new high, and the S+P 500 retesting its high, were textbook fulfillments of the likely action after a 4-Shadow Indicator signal is triggered. The retest of those highs then projects a much larger decline than the preceding one (that triggered the 4-Shadow signal).
As described before, that indicator possesses parallels to the weekly trend indicator with three critical (similar) facets providing important portents:
- The most immediate portent is that both signals warn of an imminent (but only initial) low.
- The second, correlating similarity is that both signals project a reactive rally to follow.
- The third parallel is that both indicators warn of a future, more significant decline to take hold after that reactive rally has played out.
That decline could now be taking hold after the indexes rebounded from their January lows with the S+P 500 & NQ-100 retesting their highs and fulfilling that phase of the 4-Shadow Signal. Weekly closes below those January lows are needed to confirm the onset of the next phase.
Partially leading the way, the DJTA sold off in February, fulfilling intermediate cycles and setting the lowest daily close since October 3, 2024. It is poised to see another wave of selling in March that could extend (if key signals are triggered on March 7 – 14th) into early-April, the next phase of related 17 – 18-week high-high-high-(low?) and ~9-week high-high-(low?) Cycle Progressions.
Bigger Picture
On a 6 – 12 month (and intra-year) basis, the mid-January lows are now pivotal. It would take weekly closes below them to signal that a new 1 – 2 month (or longer) decline is unfolding (and to turn the intra-year trends down).
This overall decline – beginning in late-Nov in multiple indexes – is still expected to stretch into March/April ‘25 (potentially longer) – the convergence of multiple cycles & Cycle Progressions. That includes an 18/19-month low-low-(??) Cycle Progression, a 2-Year Cycle (DJIA peaked in late-Nov ’22 & sold off into March ’23) and an annual cycle that timed intra-year lows in 2020, 2023 & 2024.
Daily & weekly cycles are focused on late-March/early-April as the ideal time for that low…
Gold & Silver remain on divergent courses, particularly from a wave perspective. Both metals fulfilled multi-month cycle highs in late-October ’24 and entered what was projected to be a multi-month corrective/consolidation phase in preparation for a new impulse wave higher.
During the ensuing correction, Gold could only neutralize its weekly uptrend – leaving it in positive territory and on track for new highs (sooner than Silver) in the first half of 2025. In contrast, Silver turned its weekly trend down – signaling a higher-magnitude peak was in place & a more complex correction should unfold.
The late-Oct ’24 cycle highs included an uncanny ~12.5 month/~54-week high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression that was expected to usher in a multi-month top while – at the same time – projecting a future 3 – 6 month peak for Oct/Nov 2025.
The midpoint of that cycle – a 27 – 28-week cycle – projects an intervening Gold peak for the first half of May 2025, the fulfillment of a ~28-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. That remains the outlook for the coming months. Gold broke out to new highs in late-Jan/early-Feb, fulfilling its bullish weekly trend pattern and spurring a rally to its upside range target at ~2950//GCJ…
On a broader perspective, Silver remains in what is perceived to be a larger-magnitude ‘A-B-C’ correction that could continue to slowly but steadily evolve through March ‘25.
It rallied in a clear 5-wave formation (a likely, overall ‘III’ wave advance) – leading into its late-Oct ‘24 peak – and was perceived to be tracing out a likely ‘A-B-C’ correction. That, as described in recent months, would likely be completing a larger-magnitude wave ‘4’ (or ‘IV’) of the overall advance from the late-2022 low.
That would reinforce the outlook for another strong rally in 2025 and pave the way for a wave ‘5’/’V’ advance into (at least) Oct/Nov 2025 and potentially into 2Q 2026.
Several factors could have a marked influence on Silver’s action, including these two potentials:
- Silver could ultimately match the duration of its wave II (May – Oct ’23) correction, as wave 4s (IV) and wave 2s (II) often ‘tend toward equality’. A similar ~22-week correction would extend a final low into March 24 – 28, ’25.
- Silver could again adhere to the ‘90/10 Rule of Cycles’ – experiencing a large percentage of the latest decline near the end of the cycle.
The intriguing aspect of that projection is that Silver continues to mirror the general action of the May ’23 correction…
On a larger cyclic basis, a Silver low in March/April ’25 would reinforce multi-year cycles peaking in March/April 2026, including a unique ~5-year cycle evolving since 2001 (and before).
The most important aspect of the outlook for Gold & Silver is to keep these 1 – 3 month potentials in the context of the broader bullish trends and outlook. Gold & Silver perpetuated a ~7-year low (4Q ‘01) – low (4Q ‘08) – low (4Q ‘15) – low (4Q ‘22) Cycle Progression in October ‘22 and have been projected to undergo a multi-year advance that could ultimately last into 2026 or later…
The Dollar Index has dropped sharply after fulfilling ongoing expectations – described since Sept ’24 – for a secondary peak in January ‘25 and the onset of a sharp 2025 sell-off (that could lead to a 6 – 12 month or multi-year low in late-2025… see April ‘25 INSIIDE Track).”
Gold remains bullish as Silver remains neutral, rallying in a likely ‘B’ wave advance that is projected to ultimately give way to a ‘C’ wave decline below its Dec ’24 low and back to its early-Aug ’24 low. A multi-month Silver low could/should stretch into April ’25 with the sharpest drop most likely in the final 1 – 2 weeks leading into that low.
Early-April ‘25 is also the time when a sharp stock market plunge could accelerate into a multi-month bottom. The final indexes – S+P 500 & NQ-100 – fulfilled their upside objectives on Feb 18/19th and quickly triggered weekly sell signals that reinforce the outlook for 20 – 25% plunges into early-April ’25 – with daily & weekly cycles most synergistic on April 3rd – 7th, ‘25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
Gold’s mid-November ’24 low created a third successive (higher) low and signaled the onset of a new 3 – 6 month advance – projected to last into late-April/early-May ‘25. The Dollar rallied into January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and ushering in the time for a projected major decline in 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is fulfilling its related outlook for a major sell-off in 1Q 2025 that could attack decisive support near 74,000/BTC before a bottom takes hold.
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