Gold/Silver Divergence Portends Sharp Drop in Silver.
03-22-25 – “Stock indexes initially bottomed on March 12/13th in sync with daily & weekly cycle lows while attacking and holding pivotal multi-month downside objectives and extreme weekly downside targets. They could still see lower lows in April but are likely to extend their rebounds into the coming week…
Gold & Silver are mixed with Gold remaining in near-term & 1 – 2 month uptrends (rallying to new highs in what is likely a wave ‘5’ of a 5-wave advance from its Nov ‘25 low) while Silver has reentered neutral territory on multiple levels…
From a timing perspective, a multi-week peak at this time would complete a ~4-month/~18-week rally – the same duration as its June – Oct ’24 advance.
Meanwhile, Silver remains in a ~6-month trading range and only neutralized its weekly downtrend once (it re-entered that weekly downtrend on March 21st). Congestion remains in force… with the prevailing potential for a retest of its December ’24 low.
That potential is based on the weekly trend structure so it does not specify timing.
However, Silver turned its weekly 21 High & Low MACs down (slightly) for the first time since November 2024. That is a technical indicator that has been monitored for a potential downturn but Silver would need to drop sharply to keep those averages moving lower.
On a 3 – 6 month basis, Silver rallied back to its mid-February high but did not give a weekly close above it. That perpetuates the congestion that has been in force in Silver for several months…
On a larger cyclic basis, a Silver low in March/April ’25 would reinforce multi-year cycles peaking in March/April 2026, including a unique ~5-year cycle evolving since 2001…
The XAU & HUI remain in weekly uptrends and spiked above their October ’24 peaks – a decisive level (on a weekly close basis) for the 3 – 6 month trend… On a broader basis, the XAU remains on track for successive highs in mid-June & mid-Oct ’25 with the potential for an intervening peak in mid-April – the midpoint of a related ~4-month cycle and a ~6-month/ ~180-degree cycle from its October ’24 peak.”
Gold & Silver are reinforcing divergent wave structures. Gold is bullish while Silver is under the influence of its weekly downtrend, projecting a ‘C’ wave decline back to its early-Aug ’24 low (~27.60/SIK) before a multi-month correction is complete. A multi-month Silver low could/should stretch into early-April ’25 with the sharpest drop most likely in the final 1 – 2 weeks leading into that low.
Early-April ‘25 also remains the time when a sharp stock market plunge could accelerate into a multi-month bottom. The final indexes – S+P 500 & NQ-100 – fulfilled their upside objectives on Feb 18/19th and quickly triggered weekly sell signals that reinforce the outlook for 20 – 25% plunges into early-April ’25 – with daily & weekly cycles most synergistic on April 3rd – 7th, ‘25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
Gold’s mid-November ’24 low projected a subsequent rally into late-April/early-May ’25, which remains on track. The Dollar peaked in January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and ushering in the time for a sharp (projected) decline in 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is fulfilling its related outlook for a major sell-off in 1Q 2025 that could attack decisive support near 74,500/BTC before a bottom takes hold.
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