Gold & Silver Diverging as Gold Fulfills Multi-Month Low Criteria.
12-05-24 – “Gold & Silver are in limbo with the weekly trends signaling a multi-week low (on Nov 14th) while the daily trends are up against resistance and could trigger 1 – 2 week highs.
Gold neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times and would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2541/GCZ. Silver is similar and would not turn its weekly trend down until a weekly close below 30.09/SIH.
This heightens the focus on the new intra-month trends. It would take daily closes above the Dec 2nd – 4th highs to turn the new intra-month trends up or daily closes below the Dec 2nd – 4th lows to turn the new intra-month trends down. That should clarify the 1 – 2 week (maybe 2 – 4 week) outlook.
If Gold & Silver bottom before the end of 2024, they would likely be completing a larger-magnitude wave ‘4’ (or ‘IV’) of the overall advance from the late-2022 low. That would pave the way for a wave ‘5’/’V’ advance in 2025… potentially lasting into (at least) Oct/Nov 2025.
The XAU & HUI have consolidated after dropping sharply in late-Oct/early-Nov – validating cycle highs that peaked on October 21/22nd while perpetuating an ~18-week low-low-low-low-(high; Oct 21 – 25, 2024) Cycle Progression and many other cycles.
The XAU neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 142.35/XAU.
Along with Silver, the XAU has bounced to its declining daily 21 High MAC while twice neutralizing its daily downtrend. In both cases, a daily close above the December 3rd/4th highs is needed to turn those trends up and signal a higher magnitude rally.
Until those occur, the XAU remains poised for an additional drop to 130 – 133/XAU.”
Gold, Silver & XAU remain below projected multi-month peaks in late-October ’24. Both Gold & Silver fulfilled downside objectives but only Gold is affirming a 1 – 2 month low is intact. Gold fulfilled a pair of significant downside wave objectives, without turning its weekly trend down, increasing the likelihood for a multi-month low and onset of new advance. In contrast, Silver is showing that it could drop to lower lows in December ’24.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
Gold & Silver (& US Dollar) fulfilled the latest phases of their 2022 – 2027 outlooks with the Dollar bottoming in late-Sept and metals surging into late-Oct ’24… reinforcing analysis for a series of future Gold peaks projected for 2025 & 2026. The late-October high reinforces future Gold cycle highs in early-Feb, early-May & early-Nov ‘25. Gold could be setting a low now and preparing for a rally back to its high.
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