Gold/Silver Dropping; Silver Weaker Wave Structure… Gold Low Likely in 4Q ‘24.
11-09-24 – “Gold & Silver fulfilled late-October cycles and analysis for an initial drop into Nov 8/11th. That could stretch into mid-month…
Gold & Silver are confirming signs of multi-week or multi-month tops after attacking critical upside targets in late-October – the projected time for a multi-week (likely multi-month) high.
From a price perspective, Silver led this topping phase, attacking its weekly LHR on Oct 18th, increasing the likelihood for a 1 – 2 month peak in the subsequent week(s). In the following week, it spiked up to monthly resistance (33.96 – 34.55/SIZ) and peaked while fulfilling the objective for a wave ‘v’ of ‘5’ of ‘III’ wave peak.
Silver peaked on October 22nd – along with related cycles in the XAU Index – while Gold waited another week to fulfill its own cycles. Its late-October ’24 peak fulfilled the latest phase of an ongoing ~1-year/~12.5-month high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression.
Gold stretched its intraday/intra-week high into October 30th, fulfilling a ~5-week/34 – 37-day low-high-high-high-(high; Oct 30) Cycle Progression and then turned down – validating all this ongoing analysis and projecting an initial drop into Nov 8/11th (could stretch into mid-month). Initial support is near 2620/GCZ & 30.50/SIZ.
The related ~54-week cycle and 27-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions peaked on October 28th – when both set their highest weekly closes. All of that set the stage for a decisive top and an initial sell-off into the current time frame.
Silver is entering the second week after testing and holding its weekly HLS. That indicator usually generates a 1 – 2 month low in the ensuing 2 – 3 weeks. In addition, a low on November 11 – 18th would perpetuate a ~14-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
Multiple targets and support levels converge at 29.71 – 29.86/SIZ and would be the ideal range for a multi-week low. Gold has related support around 2620/GCZ.
Metals continue to reinforce analysis that projected major, multi-year lows to take hold in late-2022 and lead to a multi-year advance. Ultimately, these trends could spur higher prices into 2027/2028 – when major cycles converge.
Gold & Silver peaked in line with late-October cycle highs and are fulfilling the outlook for an initial sell-off into November 8th/11th. The intra-month downtrends could stretch that into mid-month. The weekly trends should help clarify what to expect after a subsequent rebound.
The XAU & HUI have dropped sharply after fulfilling upside projections in price and time as the XAU surged into a synergistic convergence of geometric cycle highs on October 21/22nd and topped while fulfilling an ~18-week low-low-low-low-(high; Oct 21 – 25, 2024 Cycle Progression as well as the following:
- ~4-month low (Feb 13) – low (June 17) – (high; October 21/22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~2-month low (Feb 13) – low (April 16) – low (June 17) – high (Aug 20) – (high; October 21/22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~3-month high (Jan 12) – high (April 12) – high (July 16/17) – (high; October 16 – 22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
That also fulfilled a similar ~1-year/~12.5-month high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression as in Gold. They quickly confirmed those peaks, increasing the likelihood for a plunge back to their early-August ’24 lows.
That dovetails with the monthly HLS (extreme downside target for Nov ’24) at 135.63/XAU and the coming week’s HLS at 136.66/XAU. A ~5-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression could produce a multi-week low on Nov 11 – 15th.”
Gold, Silver & XAU fulfilled projections for a surge into late-October ’24. A multi-month peak was projected to take hold and trigger a corrective phase when metals would consolidate in a trading range. That could produce a subsequent low, at least in Gold, before the end of 2024… potentially before the end of November. The late-October high reinforces future cycle highs in late-Jan/early-Feb, late-April/early-May & late-Oct/early-Nov ‘25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
Late-2023 was projected to reaffirm this analysis when Middle East War Cycles were projected to reignite (in October 2023… exactly when war broke out)…
Middle East War Cycles Collide in Late-2023
Gold & Silver (as well as US Dollar) have fulfilled the latest phases of their 2022 – 2027 outlooks with Gold & Silver (and XAU) surging into late-October ’24 and reinforcing analysis for a series of future peaks projected for 2025 & 2026… as Gold’s bull market continues. The XAU is similar and portends a drop below 136.00/XAU – where multi-month support aligns – as part/all of a developing correction.
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