Gold & Silver Fulfill 6-Month Advance

Gold & Silver Fulfill 6-Month Advance;
Mid-Dec. ’15 Buy Signals Maturing…
Multi-Month Top Likely Forming.

07/20/16 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “3–6–12 Month Signals Maturing”: 

In mid-Dec. 2015, Gold & Silver triggered 1–4 week, 3–6 month & 6–12 month buy signals (see Weekly Re-Lays).  The 1–4 week signal preceded the others, which occurred simultaneously.  That combination added clarity to the outlook for 2016.

Even before those signals were triggered, the intra-year analysis was for a surge into mid-2016 – the largest & longest advance since 2011 (which is why 2016 was being termed ‘The Golden Year’) – to be followed by a secondary low in late-2016, after the intra-year high had taken hold.

Once these signals were generated, it reinforced that outlook – showing that both a 3–6 month & a 6–12 month advance were possible.

Within that context, the 3–6 month advance was the higher probability (naturally) but it was also – as is normally the case – expected to be in the form of multiple waves… up and down.

Gold & Silver fulfilled the 3-month advance – with a rally into March 11th and then pulled back into late-March (28th).

They entered the next phase and were projected to see multiple advances in 2Q 2016, with the finale accelerating higher into late-June.  They fulfilled that and simultaneously fulfilled the 6-month advance.

By providing a week of carry-over buying, Gold & Silver also provided the minimum necessary to be characterized as ‘6–12 month advances’.

In doing so, Gold also perpetuated a 14–15 week low (Sept. ’15)–low (Dec. ’15)–low (late-Mar. ’16)–high (July 5–15thJuly 8th was precise 102-day low-low-high) Cycle Progression… AND a ~9-month/38–week (~270-degree) high (Jan. ’15)–high (Oct. ’15)–high (July 5–8thCycle Progression.

It also completed successive advances of equal duration (5 weeks) from March 28–May 2nd and May 31–July 6th… setting the stage for a top.

Gold’s July 6th peak – and July 11th double top – also fulfilled what had been discussed while Gold was bottoming in late-2015…

When anticipating a late-Nov. 2015 bottom (Nov. 27th was – and remains – the lowest weekly close in Gold), it was partially due to an uncanny ~4-month cycle that had governed multiple lows.

That 4-month cycle had begun with the early-July 2014 peak (precisely 2 years/720 degrees before the recent early-July 2016 peak) and the ensuing ~4-month drop into Nov. ’14.  That was followed by successive lows in March, July & Nov. 2015 – each about 4 months apart.

It was speculated in late-2015 that this ~4-month cycle could soon shift and begin timing subsequent highs… offset from the low-low cycle.

That is a common occurrence… though not something that is ‘written in stone’, so to speak.  The point?

Gold initially topped on March 4th and then experienced a retest of the highs and sharp reversal lower on March 11th.

4 months later, Gold topped on July 6th and then experienced a retest of the highs and sharp reversal lower on July 11th.

Is the 4-month cycle beginning to govern the highs?  If so, watch early-Nov. 2016.  (Oh yeah… that also happens to be Election 2016!)

For now, the important point is that Gold’s (and Silver’s) surge into mid-2016 fulfilled many cycles, wave projections & timing indicators… and coincided with precisely when the Dollar Index turned its weekly trend back up.

Does that signal a top in Precious Metals?

No.

But the reversal of Gold’s daily trend does… at least on a 2–4 week basis…

Gold & Silver are showing (very preliminary) signs of another intermediate reversal, not much different from the lows in late-March & late-May as well as the highs in Feb., March & May.  Since its low, Gold has swung in 4–5 week movements – with the latest being a second 5-week advance…

Since this comes after Gold tested its multi-quarter LLH and Silver tested June’s monthly LHR (extreme upside target – at 21.19/SIU), the stage is being set for a 1–2 month (or longer) peak.  Silver further corroborated that by peaking within 1–2 weeks of testing & holding its weekly LHRand within 1–2 days of testing & holding its daily LHR.

So, on three distinct levels, Silver reached extreme upside objectives in the first two days of July – ushering in the ideal scenario for a blow-off top…

3–6 month & 6–12 month traders and investors should be holding partial long positions in Gold (~25%) & Silver (~50%) from mid-Dec. (~1046–1076/GC & 13.62–13.88/SI).

These traders should have just exited half of the remaining Gold position (~25% of original position) on today’s close (~1315/GCQ) w/avg. gains of about $24,000/contract.”  TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

Gold & Silver have adhered to expectations for an initial ~6-month advance to confirm 2016- The Golden Year’ is valid.  As described in INSIIDE Track – for over a year – there are behind-the-scenes events unfolding that set the stage for a much bigger advance in 2017–2018, particularly during one decisive period.  A few months (most/all of 3Q 2016) of consolidation are expected and would help hone expectations for when & where the next multi-year low (and ideal buying opportunity) is most likely.