Gold, Silver & War Cycles: Focus on Feb 21 – 25; Gold/Silver Surge Projected!
01/29/22 INSIIDE Track – “2016 – 2021 was the culmination of the latest phase of multiple 40-Year Cycles – expected to time another multi-year advance in Gold as part of recurring Currency Wars – and ultimately give way to real War Cycles in 2021 – 2025.
The Currency Wars emerged right on schedule and Gold experienced the bull market that was forecast to last from late-2015 into late-2020/early-2021. In many ways, those types of financial and/or societal shifts and instability are often harbingers of more overt and geopolitical shifts & conflicts smoldering below the surface.
War Cycles… in China
Since the early-2010’s, INSIIDE Track has focused on 2021 to usher in many major shifts and represent a tumultuous period into (at least) 2025. That is the recurrence of an uncanny 80-Year War Cycle that has impacted America since its founding, Europe since (at least) 1301, AND also China.
Before reiterating the European/American cycles, a quick look at ‘recent’ events in China reinforces this cycle. In 1850 – 1864, China was devastated by the Taiping Rebellion – a massive civil war, considered the bloodiest civil war ever (~20 – 70 million deaths). It overlapped the Second Opium War in 1857-1860.
80 years later, in 1934 – 1945, China was rocked by the triple whammy of the Soviet Invasion, the 2nd Sino-Japan War, and the Chinese Civil War.
In between, at the 40-Year Cycle interval, the Boxer Rebellion (1899 – 1901) culminated a ~7-year period of conflict beginning with the First Sino-Japanese War in 1894 – 1895, followed by the Dungan Revolt and then the Japanese invasion of Taiwan.
80, 120 & 160 years later pinpoints 2019 – 2024 as the period with the greatest synergy of these overlapping War Cycles for China and parts of Asia.
War Cycles… in US & Europe
For the past 10 – 15 years, however, the primary focus of this ~80-Year Cycle of Wars has been the West… particularly America. That cycle has been forecast to usher in a new phase in 2021 – 2025 – the latest in the following sequence of major conflicts that impacted Europe, England, and then N. America:
- 1301 – 1302 – Byzantine raids with Ottomans attacking Nicaea; Battle of Bapheus (following founding of Ottoman Empire in 1299); Ottomans defeat the Byzantines – the Eastern Roman Empire – in the first major victory of what would be a ~600-year empire controlling Eastern Europe… a momentous shift.
- 1381 – Peasants’ Revolt in England – a battle against high taxes, serfdom, etc. … and a 400-year precursor to 1775 – 1781.
- 1461 – Battle of Towton (largest & bloodiest battle ever fought on English soil; ~28,000 died in a one-day battle; part of War of the Roses with three other major battles occurring in 1461.
- 1541 – Seige of Buda – led to 150 years of Ottoman control over Hungary (western extreme of Empire).
- 1621 – Final phase of Dutch Revolt (an ~80-year war triggered by over-taxation of Netherlands for ‘unnecessary wars’) began in 1621 after a 12-year truce. 1621 also marked the beginning of the end (1621–1629) of the religious wars throughout Europe.
[Overlapping these phases, there was the corresponding 80-Year War – from 1568 – 1648 – in which the Dutch gained independence from Spain… another powerful corroboration of this 80-Year Cycle of War.]
- 1701 – War of Spanish Succession (another battle for independence; a precursor to 80 years later).
- 1781 – 1783 – Culmination of America’s Revolutionary War (began in 1775/1776)
- 1861 – 1865 – Civil War in USA (triggered by conflicts in 1855 – 1856)
- 1941 – 1945 – US entry into WWII (in Europe since 1936 – 1938)
- 2021 – 2025 – Next Major Conflict? Watch China, Russia AND Middle East.
The 80-Year Cycle of War timed the most noteworthy & destiny-altering revolts & battles of the last millennium – involving England, Europe & ultimately N. America. Will History Repeat? Stay tuned…
Gold & Silver remain above the lows set in late-Sept – when they fulfilled a myriad of cycle lows including Silver’s ~6-month high (Sept ’19) – low (Mar ’20) – low (Sept ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept ’21) Cycle Progression. That low was forecast to hold for at least 3 – 6 months and potentially longer.
The price levels of those late-Sept ‘21 lows are the most crucial levels of 6 – 12 month support for Gold & Silver. These metals must remain above those lows if they are to maintain the potential for any additional upside during their current rebound. (A break, and weekly close, below those levels would signal a higher-magnitude decline in Gold and Silver.)
That is due to multiple reasons… While bottoming in late-Sept, Silver completed a 50% retracement of its entire 2020 – 2021 rally, reinforcing a developing range trading pattern with 21 – 21.50/SI as the midpoint and likely support (the 2015 – 2020 range was between 12 – 21 and the ensuing July ‘20 – Sept ‘21 trading range between 21 – 30).
That low was forecast to spark an initial rally into late-Oct and ultimately into Nov 15 – 19, when Gold cycles projected a multi-week top.
Gold & Silver fulfilled that and, in the process, projected future peaks for Jan 3 – 7 – the subsequent phase of a governing 7-week cycle AND a ~5-month/21 – 22-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression – and then for Feb. 21 – 28, ’22 – the ensuing phase of that ~7-week low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and an overlapping 17 – 18 month high (Aug/Sept ’17) – high (Feb ’19) – high (Aug ’20) – high (Jan/Feb ’22) Cycle Progression.
An intermediate high on Feb 21 – 28, ’22 would also fulfill an overlapping 14-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression, which is why it is the more significant of these cycle peaks. A high in the second half of Feb ’22 would also fulfill a larger-magnitude, 49 – 51 week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression…
Just like stock indices, Gold & Silver are validating the potential for the 2-Year Cycle to play a role (though not the ONLY role) in early-2022 action. As explained previously, there were/are multiple reasons – technical and cyclical – why Gold & Silver are set up to see an initial high in early-Jan and a subsequent higher high around Feb 18 – 22.
There are also several reasons why it could subsequently see a sell-off into [reserved for subscribers]… Cyclically, that is very similar to what transpired in 2020. However, that does not mean – in and of itself – that the magnitude of a late-Feb-to-late-March ’22 sell-off will be as dramatic as 2020. It is more the timing of the swings that are in focus, not the precise magnitudes since they are now in different phases of waves.
In 2020, Gold & Silver began the year by peaking in the first 3 – 5 trading days of the new year… just as they did in 2022. Gold then sold off for a ~week and bottomed before mid-Jan. ‘20. Silver extended its 2020 sell-off into late-Jan, creating divergence. That is almost exactly what has occurred (again) in 2022.
In 2020, Gold & Silver then rallied into Feb 24, ’20 and began a topping process. On March 6 – 20, ’20, they suffered sharp declines but bottomed within a month of the late-Feb ’20 peaks.
(In 2018, there were also some similarities with Gold & Silver rallying from mid-Dec. into Jan 4 before a brief pullback. They then rallied into late-Jan and ultimately into Feb 16 ’18 before a multi-week/multi-month peak was set. That was followed by a sell-off into March 18/20, ‘18, after which Gold rallied to new intra-year highs.)
In 2022, precious metals are set up for something similar… with regard to the timing of turning points.
They remain in sync with the same ~2-Year Cycle that has strongly influenced stock market action for many years and which projected a sharp sell-off in stocks in Jan ‘22.
One of the key factors looking forward, for the remainder of 2022, is where Gold & Silver peak (if they rally as expected) in the second half of Feb ‘22. As is often the case with precious metals, the final weeks of an up-cycle – leading into a potential multi-month peak – are often the weeks when an accelerated advance is most likely (90/10 Rule of Cycles)…
The XAU & HUI remain in a 1 – 2 year trading range (~120 – ~160/XAU) and are following a similar path as Gold & Silver, setting highs on Nov 15 – 19 that projected future peaks for Jan 3 – 7 and Feb 21 – 28, ‘22.
They remain on track for another rally into late-Feb ‘22 with the HUI diverging a little (just as it did when it led the way in projecting a major bottom for late-Sept ‘21) and indicating its high could stretch into early-March ‘22.
If it can extend a high into Feb. 25 – March 4, the HUI would fulfill a 41-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression, an 11-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression, a 22-week advance (2xs the prior 11-week advance) and a 5 – 6 week low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression. If a low is set on Jan 28, a rally into Feb. 25 – March 4 would complete successive advances of equal duration.
Following that, the second half of April is the convergence of 5 – 5.5-month & 10 – 11-month high-high cycles that could time another multi-month turning point. However, there is a growing chance that would time [reserved for subscribers]… A low in late-Jan ’22 – 90 degrees/3 months prior to late-April ’22 – would concur.
Platinum is steadily recovering after setting its lowest weekly close on Dec 3, perpetuating a ~10-week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression while preventing its weekly trend from turning down. It set an intra-week low in mid-Dec during the 3rd week following a test of its weekly HLS (a 1 – 2 month low usually takes hold within 3 weeks of that occurrence).
That showed Platinum had stretched to its extremes without turning the trend down – setting the stage for a surge into late-Jan ’22 that was initially corroborated by the weekly 2 Close Reversal buy signal it triggered on Dec. 17. That was forecast to trigger a second rally into Jan/Feb ‘22…
If it stretches into mid-Feb. ‘22, which is becoming more likely based on daily cycles, Platinum would peak 360 degrees/1 year from its mid-Feb ’21 peak. If that peak is above 1150/PLJ, Platinum would likely consolidate/pull back for a few weeks and then embark on a new 1 – 2 month advance. xxxxxx is the ideal time for the next intermediate low.
Palladium is powerfully validating analysis for a multi-month bottom in Dec ’21, when it completed successive declines of equal magnitude (~1,400/PA drops in Feb/Mar ’20 and in May – Dec ’21) while again holding its previous (Mar ’19) high near 1600/PA – a key level of resistance turned into support. At the time, Palladium retraced to its multi-year 4th wave of lesser degree support – the low of March ’20 that preceded the culminating wave ’5’ rally into May ’21 (that 5-wave sequence began in Jan ’16).
That level was both the primary downside objective for that correction AND the support from which a new advance could take hold – rallying back to (at least) that previous peak. At the same time, Palladium also spiked to its weekly HLS in mid-Dec and reversed higher – initially indicating it had stretched to a downside extreme and a multi-month low was taking hold.
On a 1 – 2 year basis, the next multi-quarter peak is most likely in 3Q ’22 – the fulfillment of a ~15-month high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. Longer-term cycles converge in 1Q ’23 – including the next phase of a ~7-year low-low-(low?) Cycle Progression and could time a subsequent low.
Copper remains in the midst of an overall advance expected to last from March ’20 into 1Q ‘22. At the very least, that was projected to reach Jan ’22 but recent weekly cycles could stretch that into March ’22. In the interim, it was forecast to set an intermediate peak in late-Dec/early-Jan ’22 – which arrived on schedule. As long as it does not give a weekly close below 411.60/HGH, Copper remains on track for a final rally and ultimate retest of its ~4.9000 high.”
Gold & Silver are powerfully reinforcing the outlook for an overall surge into Feb 21 – 25 and to at least 1913 – 1920/GC. Since that would only match previous rallies, and Gold is perceived to be in a higher magnitude advance, it should ultimately exceed 1920/GC and validate the overall outlook for 2022. Short-term cycles & indicators are setting the stage for an intervening low and buy signal at this time.
Platinum & Palladium fulfilled major downside objectives in Dec ‘21 and are signaling 6 – 12 month bottoms and the onset of new multi-month advances… as Copper is fulfilling multi-year upside objectives (and could peak in 1Q ’22). New surges are expected in Platinum & Palladium in Feb ’22.
What is Significance of Feb 21 – 25 Cycles in Gold… and Why Should Metals Surge into That Time Frame?
Will Gold Reach/Exceed 1920/GC by/in Late-Feb ’22? What about cycles in April & Sept ’22??
How Do War Cycles Fit into This Outlook???
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.