Gold/Silver Index (XAU) Reinforcing Bullish Signs; Projects Initial ~5-Week Advance into Late-June and Overall Rally into July/August ’19.
Gold/Silver Index (XAU) Reinforcing Bullish Signs; Projects Initial ~5-Week Advance into Late-June and Overall Rally into July/August ’19.
06/01/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver began the week with Silver spiking to new lows… if Gold was going to also (potentially) fulfill its ~7-week low-low-low-high-high-high-(high) and a corresponding 13 – 14 week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression – both of which were critical in identifying the Feb. 20 multi-month peak – it needed to rally above 1304.2/GCM by/on May 31.
After starting the week negatively, but not reversing its prevailing intra-month uptrend, Gold recovered and did rally into May 31 and did exceed 1304.2/GCM…
That completed an Intra-Month N pattern in which a market sets an intra-month low and high in the first half of the month, then drops back to retest (and hold) the low before rallying into month-end and retesting the high. That usually spurs some follow-through buying in the early part of the ensuing month, corroborating other recent analysis.
If Gold were to extend this rebound into June 3 – 7, it would complete a 50% rebound in time – 10 weeks down & 5 weeks up… or 71 days down & 35 – 36 days up. That remains a possibility. Gold was able to complete a monthly 2 Close Reversal – projecting 1 – 3 months of upside follow-through – while neutralizing its weekly downtrend.
That reinforces the broader outlook for a new rally into ~July 2019.
At the same time, Silver recovered enough to maintain the potential for a rally into June 3 – 7 and up to 15.000 – 15.080/SIN… Gold continues to hold its early-May low and is reinforcing the overall outlook for a rally into July 2019.
The XAU is validating the potential for a new ~5-week rally from its May 22 low. At the time, it bottomed while testing and holding the lower end of monthly support (at 65.85 – 67.30) and its weekly support at (65.63 – 66.38/XAU) – holding key levels of intermediate support.
This was occurring as the XAU was completing a 3-month/90-degree decline from the late-Feb. peak and bottoming in sync with an 8-month high (Jan. ’18) – low (Sept. ’18) – low (May ’19) Cycle Progression, the latest phase of which included a 5-month rally and 3-month decline (.618 ratio).
That May 22 low set the stage for a 5-week rally that is expected to last into June 24 – 28, the first stage of an overall advance that could last into July/Aug. ‘19 and fulfill a 17 – 18 month high-high-high-high-(high) AND a ~9-month high-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. It would also fulfill a ~36-month high (Aug. ’13) – high (July/Aug. ’16) – (high) Cycle Progression…
If the XAU can turn its weekly trend back up – while rallying into late-June – it would be positioned for a brief pullback and then another advance into the July/Aug. ‘19 cycles.”
Gold is reinforcing signs of a bottom and the onset of a new surge into July 2019 as the XAU reinforces its May 22 low and projects an overall surge into July/August ‘19. Silver tested 14.350/SI and reversed higher, fulfilling primary downside objectives.
3 – 6 month Gold traders were triggered back into long positions in late-April/early-May (near 1270.0/GC) in preparation for a new, potentially accelerated rally into July 2019. Gold’s ~7-week (and 14 & 21-week) projects overall rally into July 15 – 22, 2019.
How Does XAU Action Impact Overall Outlook into late-2020?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.