Gold/Silver Index (XAU) Signals Multi-Month Low; Projects Initial ~5-Week Advance (as Part of Projected Surge into July 2019). June/July = Bullish Period (into July 15 – 22).
Gold/Silver Index (XAU) Signals Multi-Month Low; Projects Initial ~5-Week Advance (as Part of Projected Surge into July 2019). June/July = Bullish Period (into July 15 – 22).
05/25/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver are attempting to rebound with Gold trying to fulfill the potential for another 1 – 2 week high on ~May 31 – the next phase of the 12 trading-day low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the May 14 high.
If Gold rallies enough (ideally testing or spiking above 1304.2/GCM), it would also be in a position to perpetuate a ~7-week low-low-low-high-high-high-(high) and a corresponding 13 – 14 week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression – both of which were instrumental in precisely identifying the Feb. 20 multi-month peak.
Gold remains under the influence of an intra-month uptrend (it turned up two weeks ago and then neutral – but never down – during its latest drop), so that could also spur a rally into month-end.
That would complete an Intra-Month N pattern in which a market sets an intra-month low and high in the first half of the month, then drops back to retest (and hold) the low before rallying into month-end and retesting the high. More than anything, that pattern shows congestion so it is not as significant – or as revealing – as other Intra-Month patterns.
Silver remains in a weaker structure and in an intra-month downtrend. It would have to rally above – and close above – 15.000/SIN to show any signs of an intermediate bottom.
From a wave perspective, Silver is showing the potential for a rally back to that range (15.000 – 15.080/SIN) – that would match the magnitude of the March 7 – 21 rally. If the rally stretches into June 3 – 7, it would also match the duration of that rally…
14.890 – 15.025/SIN is the range of the latest two weekly LHR levels (extreme upside targets), so Silver could rally to 14.890/SIN and then spike higher on June 3 – 7… If Gold were to follow suit and also extend this rebound into June 3 – 7 (a 1-week range of error for weekly cycles surrounding May 31), it would complete a 50% rebound in time – 10 weeks down & 5 weeks up… or 71 days down & 35 – 36 days up.
While this is not the only possible scenario, it is one that fulfills recent signals, intermediate cycles, and normal wave action & other technical indicators – so it is worth considering. Tuesday’s action would need to corroborate it with daily closes above 1287.1/GCM & 14.635/SIN.
From a broader perspective, this past week’s action reinforced the intra-year outlook for Gold. Leading into 2019, Gold focus was on two key cycle highs expected during the year.
The first was in late-Feb./early-Mar. ’19 and was the most synergistic – representing multiple monthly cycles and the latest phases of Gold’s primary 55 – 59 week cycle (that has governed it for several years) and its secondary 27 – 29 week cycle.
The second was in July 2019 (+ or – 1 month) and was based on monthly cycles.
Gold fulfilled the first one and has been in a corrective mode ever since. The action following that late-Feb. peak was/is expected to hone price expectations leading into July 2019.
If Gold was to maintain the potential to retest or exceed its late-Feb. highs – while creating an expected ~July ’19 peak – it was projected to pull back to 1256 – 1270.0/GC in between, allowing for traders to re-enter long positions (that were exited in late-Feb.) at 1270.0/GCM and below.
Gold retested that support this past week and again rallied, reinforcing its significance.
The other primary factor that would hone analysis for ~July ’19 is the weekly trend… The weekly trend would need to turn back up in order to re-energize the potential for a retest (or exceeding) of the Feb. 20 high…
The XAU remains weaker than Gold but not as weak as Silver. It spiked down to the lower end of monthly support at 65.85 – 67.30 and tested weekly support at 65.63 – 66.38/XAU in the process.
This was occurring as the XAU was completing a 3-month/13-week/90-degree decline from the late-Feb. peak. It bottomed in sync with an 8-month high (Jan. ’18) – low (Sept. ’18) – low (May ’19) Cycle Progression, the latest phase of which included a 5-month rally and 3-month decline (.618 ratio).
It would not show any signs of reversing higher until a daily close above 67.65/XAU. If that is seen by mid-week, the XAU could reach ~69.00 by week’s end…
The XAU is showing some subtle signs that it could soon enter a multi-week rally (potentially lasting ~5 weeks into late-June)…”
Gold is reinforcing signs of a bottom and the onset of a new surge into July 2019 (with the XAU capable of stretching a corresponding advance into August 2019) as Silver preparing for a major bottom and subsequent rally to new intra-year highs. The XAU has just fulfilled multi-month cycles and is projecting an initial ~5-week surge from its May 22 low.
3 – 6 month Gold traders were triggered back into long positions in late-April/early-May (near 1270.0/GC) in preparation for a new, potentially accelerated rally into July 2019. Gold’s ~7-week (and 14 & 21-week) projects overall rally into July 15 – 22, 2019.
How Does This Impact Overall Outlook into late-2020? Do XAU Bullish Signs Portend Strong Rally??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.