Gold, Silver & Mining Shares (XAU/HUI Indexes) Project Next High on April 18 – 22.
03/30/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert– “The markets have begun a new ‘Natural Year’ that often sets the tone for the ensuing months/year. The first month of that ‘year’ stretches from March 20 (vernal equinox) into April 19/20 (Date of Aggression) and often presages what unfolds in the months that follow.
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year. This is similar to how I treat the first 3 weeks – and month – of the calendar year, the first 3 trading days of each month, and the first day of the week.
Once that opening range (first 30 days) of the Natural Year is complete, you have resistance and support for the entire 12-month period – both when the market is trading in that range AND once it has broken out of it.
You also have an important gauge of trend for that year (if the market is trading above that range, it is in an uptrend on an intra-year basis, etc.).
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – from March 20/21 to April 19/20th – marks an important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is a time to watch each year for signs of ‘change’.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. As I have discussed for the past three decades, that time (surrounding April 19) is what I term the Date of Aggression – when significant attacks, battles, conflicts and wars have often occurred.
Corroborating that in 2022 is the fact that many weekly & monthly cycles are converging in the stock market AND in precious metals on April 18 – 22, ’22 and portending an important peak.
If fulfilled, those highs would take on even greater import due to their role within the opening range of the Natural Year… and the link to the Date of Aggression…
Gold & Silver have consolidated after surging into March 7 – 11, when a multi-week peak was expected, and then correcting sharply in the week that followed. With its early-March peak, Gold fulfilled an 11 – 12 week high-low-low-high Cycle Sequence, a corroborating 6-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and a ~3-week low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
That was/is expected to lead to a subsequent peak around April 18/19 (the Date of Aggression and the culmination of the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year) – the next phase of the 41 – 42 day low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the March 8 high…
Silver’s price action is reinforcing the overall outlook as it vacillates between range-trading extremes at 24.75 and 27.50/SI (see page 1 chart). This week’s pullback saw Silver spike well below 24.75/SIK but not close below that level… so it is holding.
Both metals dropped back to their month-opening lows and held (without turning their daily trends down) – reinforcing this period of consolidation.
The XAU & HUI remain relatively stronger and are still likely to spike higher… they could set a pair of peaks along with the broader market – ideally on ~April 4 – 6 and then April 18 – 22…”
Gold & Silver fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlooks for sharp rallies into late-Feb/early-March ’22 and peaked – along with a myriad of cycle highs – on March 8. At the time Gold retested its Aug ’20 major peak as Silver fulfilled a critical upside range-trading target (~27.50/SI). Those highs, particularly in Gold, project a future multi-week peak for April 18/19 as part of the overall outlook for 2022.
Silver fulfilled monthly cycles that projected a strong rally from late-Sept ’21 into a pivotal high in March ’22 – the latest phase of its ~6-month Cycle Progression and a possible precursor to a more significant peak in ~Sept ’22 (6 months later).
XAU & HUI cycles initially peaked on March 7/8 ’22 but are showing more relative strength than the actual metals and are expected to rally to new intra-year or multi-year highs in the coming weeks. Copper fulfilled multi-year upside objectives and has initially peaked in March ’22. Platinum & Palladium are confirming their March ’22 peaks.
What Does Developing Divergence Between Metals & Mining Shares Portend?
How Will This Impact April 18/19 (Next) Cycle High?
How Could Solar & Seismic Cycles Impact Metals in 2022/2023??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.