Gold & Silver Mixed as Dollar & Stocks Project Precipitous Declines!
03-05-25 – “The Dollar Index reversed lower to begin the week after bouncing but failing to turn its daily trend up. This has spurred accelerated selling surrounding the latest round of tariffs and tariff threats… and could now complete a weekly trend reversal down.
A weekly close below 106.09/DXM would accomplish that and confirm the January ’25 peak that completed back-to-back advances of equal duration (16 weeks each) and perpetuated an ~8-week low-low-high-low-high Cycle Sequence… while fulfilling ongoing analysis for a strong rally from Sept/ Oct ’24 into January ’25…
Bitcoin & Ether fulfilled analysis for sharp sell-offs into early-February and then into early-March… but could still see additional downside. As stated last week, Bitcoin dropped right to its 50% retracement level (~79,000), the likely place for a bounce.
That rebound quickly took hold and saw Bitcoin rally 50% of its decline but quickly level off… Bitcoin is still expected to test 72,000 – 74,500/BT…
Gold & Silver are rebounding after initial sell-offs – Gold from new all-time highs and Silver from a secondary (possible ‘B’ wave) peak. Silver remains in a weekly downtrend – an indicator that argues for a drop below the mid-December low before any new highs are seen. However, that indicator needs corroboration (synergy).
Gold recently peaked after surging to its upside range target at ~2950/GCJ (2440 – 2610 – 2780 – 2950/GCJ) and could see a subsequent drop to ~2780/GCJ or lower. After its initial sell-off, Gold is rallying back to its still-rising daily 21 High MAC…
Two key factors (among several) were/are expected to influence Silver’s action between mid-February and late-March:
- Silver could ultimately match the duration of its wave II (May – Oct ’23) correction, as wave 4s (IV) and wave 2s (II) often ‘tend toward equality’….
- Silver could again adhere to the ‘90/10 Rule of Cycles’ – experiencing a large percentage of the latest decline near the end of the cycle…
On a larger cyclic basis, a Silver low in March/April ’25 would reinforce multi-year cycles peaking in March/April 2026, including a unique ~5-year cycle evolving since 2001.”
Gold remains bullish as Silver remains neutral, rallying in a likely ‘B’ wave advance that is projected to give way to a ‘C’ wave decline below its Dec ’24 low and back to its early-Aug ’24 low (~27.60/SIK). A multi-month Silver low could/should stretch into April ’25 with the sharpest drop most likely in the final 1 – 2 weeks leading into that low.
Early-April ‘25 is also the time when a sharp stock market plunge could accelerate into a multi-month bottom. The final indexes – S+P 500 & NQ-100 – fulfilled their upside objectives on Feb 18/19th and quickly triggered weekly sell signals that reinforce the outlook for 20 – 25% plunges into early-April ’25 – with daily & weekly cycles most synergistic on April 3rd – 7th, ‘25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
Gold’s mid-November ’24 low created a third successive (higher) low and signaled the onset of a new 3 – 6 month advance – projected to last into late-April/early-May ‘25. The Dollar rallied into January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and ushering in the time for a projected major decline in 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is fulfilling its related outlook for a major sell-off in 1Q 2025 that could attack decisive support near 74,500/BTC before a bottom takes hold.
See current publications for the most updated analysis.
INSIIDE Track Trading – Subscriptions Order Page
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.