Gold/Silver Poised for New Surges; 2022 Test of 1825/GC & 24.50/SI Likely!
11/26/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver pulled back from their mid-Nov highs – which attacked intra-year trend resistance (Jan ’22 low) at 1793.5 – 1795.0/GCZ and 22.20 – 22.50/SIZ – and are fulfilling expectations for a new rally to take hold this past week.
For the last couple months, Silver’s rally has been expected to stretch into late-Nov/early-Dec ‘22 – when weekly cycles converge. That remains the case and has been reinforced by some daily cycles.
Gold has been likely to extend this rally into Nov 28 – 30, the latest phase of a 55 – 58 day high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression, and exceed the duration of each intermediate rally since early-March. That would initially fulfill the third phase of its July/Aug 4-Shadow Signal.
The equivalent ~8-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression projects a peak for anytime between Nov 28 – Dec 2/5. (Gold already fulfilled the first two phases of that 4-Shadow Signal by dropping to new lows and then generating the largest magnitude rally since before March ’22)…
That is reinforced by a shorter-term, 12 – 13 trading day high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that was just fulfilled with the Nov 21 spike low (which occurred while maintaining the overall daily uptrend… also portending a new 1 – 2 week rally).
At the very least, that cycle should spur an ~8-trading day rally (the same duration as the previous two rallies following the mid-Oct ’22 low) into Dec 2. Additional factors would need to corroborate…
As long as Gold turns its weekly trend up on Dec 2 (with a weekly close above 1791.8/GCZ), a subsequent rally… could last into year-end and fulfill Gold’s 41 – 42-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
The next rally could catapult Silver above 23.00/SIZ and ultimately to 24.50 – 24.90/SIZ. Since early-July, Silver has traced out an inverted head-and-shoulders with the neckline at ~21.00/SIZ (left shoulder = July 14 penultimate low, head = Sept 1 ultimate low, right shoulder = Oct 14 secondary low) and the resulting upside target at ~24.50/SIZ.
24.50/SIZ is also where Silver initially found support after its early-March peak. And 24.93/SIZ is final intra-year trend resistance (Jan ’22 high).
In recent months, Gold has set its own trading ranges with borders/parameters at ~1625, ~1725 & ~1825/GCZ. The past week’s action reinforced that – pulling back to ~1725/GCZ and reversing higher. That should spur a rally to ~1825/GCZ in the coming week(s).
Corroborating that potential, Gold closed above its weekly 21 High MAC on Nov 25 and is now likely/ expected to turn the direction of that average up in the coming 1 – 2 weeks. It would need to exceed 1834.8/GCZ by/on Dec 2 to accomplish that in the coming week. (It would be significantly easier for Gold to turn that average up on Dec 5 – 9.)
Gold & Silver pulled back without turning their daily trends down – projecting a new rally to new highs. Both metals tested and held at/above their rising daily 21 High MACs – increasing the likelihood for a new rally in the coming week.
That combination – pulling back while maintaining a positive daily trend structure AND providing the first test and hold (above) a rising daily 21 High MAC – usually triggers an accelerated advance in the days or weeks that follow.
Combined with weekly cycles peaking in the coming week, and Gold/Silver’s tendency to culminate rallies in parabolic fashion (proportional to the magnitude of rally in question) – in a version of the ‘90/10 Rule of Cycles’ – there is an increasingly likely chance for a sharp rally in the coming week…
Platinum & Palladium remain divergent but both have corrected after rallying into mid-month. Platinum has not reversed its daily trend down, so it remains capable of seeing another rally in the coming week. That will remain the case until/unless Platinum gives a daily close below 980/PLF.
Copper has sold off, in line with its weekly trend pattern (which turned up and signaled an initial peak and likely 1 – 3 week pullback) after attacking its 3Q ’21 lows (support turned into resistance) and monthly LHR while spiking higher into mid-month.
It remains capable of seeing an overall advance to its ~4.100/HG upside target and is likely to stretch this overall advance into early-Jan ’23 – the next phase of a ~10-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.”
Gold & Silver are reinforcing the outlook for an overall advance into 1Q ’23 with the potential to surge as high as 1825/GC & 24.50 – 25.00/SI before the end of 2022. Copper and Platinum are showing similar signs of developing strength and should rally into at least Jan ‘23. Gold is confirming a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom and could surge above 1900/GC into 1Q ’23.
What Would 2022 Test of 1825/GC & 24.50/SIH Mean for 2023?
Will Platinum AND Copper Surge with Silver… into early-Jan ‘23?
What About Gold… and its Outlook into Late-‘23?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.