Gold/Silver Poised for New Surges into Year-End; 2022 Test of 1825/GC & 24.50/SI Likely!
12/03/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver are fulfilling the outlook for another (and overall) rally into early-Dec ‘22 – when weekly cycles converge. Price action has been projecting accelerated rallies so these rallies are likely to extend into the coming week and could invert the ~5 & ~10-week cycles – creating a 9 – 10-week low-low-low-(high) and a corresponding 5-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
Gold just provided two additional reasons to expect a spike high in the coming week – turning its weekly trend up as the weekly 21 MAC is turning up (as soon as Gold ‘prints’ a price above 1774.9/GCG, it will turn its weekly 21 High MAC up on Dec 5).
Those signals are both lagging/confirming ones that project future strength while ushering in the time (often in the ensuing week) for an initial spike high. As a result, a spike high could be seen on Dec 5 – 9. However, as already discussed, Gold’s weekly trend reversal will likely result in higher highs in late-Dec to fulfill Gold’s 41 – 42-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
If Gold is going to culminate this latest rally in a very common manner, it could spike much higher… A surge to 1903 – 1906/GCG would produce a ‘3’ or ‘c’ wave rally (from the Nov 23 low) that equals the magnitude of the Nov 3 – 15 rally. It would also reach the weekly LHR (1903.9/GCG) and early-June ’22 peak.
At the very least, it has been forecast to reach ~1835 – 1845/GCG in early-Dec ’22.
At the same time, Silver has been forecast to surge to 24.50 – 25.00/SIH. However, if Silver (and Gold) are confirming 3 – 6 month bottoms, Silver could also accelerate into the next peak. It built a base from early-Sept until early-Nov – at which point it broke out to the upside – projecting acceleration.
Similar to Gold, Silver could surge well above that level as confirmation to the outlook for a new 6 – 12 month advance from late-’22 into late-’23. The Nov ’22 INSIIDE Track reiterated this potential and why the early-Sept ’22 low in Silver was likely a major ‘B’ wave low before a 1 – 2 year ‘C’ wave advance:
“Since the early-’21 peak, Silver has declined in a fairly clear 3-wave structure (Feb – Sept ‘21 decline, Sept ‘21 – Mar ‘22 rally, Mar – Sept ‘22 decline) – with the initial decline and rebound each containing 3 waves and the subsequent decline possessing 5.
In Elliott Wave terms, that is a textbook 3-3-5 corrective (‘a-b-c’) wave… with the ’a’ & ’c’ waves ’tending toward equality’. This entire decline (Feb ‘21 – Sept ‘22) could be a larger-degree ‘B’ wave decline of a multi-year, upside ‘A-B-C’ correction, following Silver’s 2011 – 2020 decline.
In other words, if a 1 – 2 year bottom is set near current levels, Silver would likely embark on a new 1 – 2.5-year advance and ultimately exceed its early-’21 high… but not its 2011 peak. That could be clarified by the action between now and year-end.
If Silver continues to hold its early-Sept low through year-end (even if Gold drops to a new low and creates a divergent bottom), it would increase the chances for a larger-magnitude advance in 2023.”
Gold did drop to a new low and created that divergent bottom while fulfilling its own cycles. All of that reinforces the potential for a major rally in Silver…
Gold & Silver provided bullish confirmation with new daily trend and daily 21 MAC buy signals surrounding their Nov 21/23 spike lows.
As stated in recent weeks, that combination – pulling back while maintaining a positive daily trend structure AND providing the first test and hold (above) a rising daily 21 High MAC – usually triggers an accelerated advance in the days/weeks that follow.
That was/is expected to usher in more of a parabolic rally… fulfilling the ‘90/10 Rule of Cycles’. The new intra-month trends (determined by daily closes above or below the Dec 1 – 5 trading ranges) should help clarify.
The XAU & HUI remain on track for surges to up to (or above) upside targets at 130 – 137/XAU & 245 – 251/HUI.
The XAU has its weekly LHR at 138.81, a little above its Jan ’22 high (intra-year trend resistance) and just below its monthly 21 High MAC and a .618 rally target (140.28 – 140.35/XAU).
Meanwhile, the HUI has corresponding targets and resistance around 265 – 270… so the coming days should be interesting and clarifying.
Both indexes are turning their weekly 21 High MACs up – another confirmation that a multi-month bottom is firmly intact. That reversal often precedes or coincides with an initial peak but usually after a spike high has transpired…
Platinum & Palladium remain divergent with Palladium remaining near its lows while Platinum is reinforcing the potential for a surge to ~1130/PLF.
Copper remains capable of seeing an overall advance to ~4.100/HG and is likely to stretch this overall advance into early-Jan ’23 – the next phase of a ~10-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.”
Gold & Silver are reinforcing the outlook for an overall advance into 1Q ’23 with the potential to surge as high as 1825/GC & 24.50 – 25.00/SI before the end of 2022. Copper and Platinum are showing similar signs of developing strength and should rally into at least Jan ‘23. Gold is confirming a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom and could surge above 1900/GC into 1Q ’23.
What Would 2022 Test of 1825/GC & 24.50/SIH Mean for 2023?
Will Platinum AND Copper Surge with Silver… into early-Jan ‘23?
What About Gold… and its Outlook into Late-‘23?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.