Gold/Silver Poised For November ’22 Surge; Nov 4 Begins Bullish Phase
10/31/22 INSIIDE Track – “Gold & Silver are slowing showing signs of a bottom (and the onset of an intermediate advance) with Silver continuing to lead the way. Since early-2022, Silver has been forecast to become more of a leader in/after Sept ’22 and overtake Gold with respect to its advances.
Gold’s monthly trend pattern argued for a 1 – 2 month low to take hold in late-Sept. So far, that is what has transpired, reinforcing what Silver’s price action has already been showing – as it steadily traces out a bottom.
Both metals remain above their Sept ’22 lows with Silver setting a series of three successively higher lows since its Sept 1 bottom (even as Gold did the opposite). Gold has been in a bottoming phase since fulfilling a 66 – 69 day/~9.5 week high (3/08) – low (5/16) – low (7/21) – (low; Sept. 26 – 28) Cycle Progression.
If a bottom is forming, the more likely action to follow that low would be a ~45-day rally followed by a 22 – 23 day decline – leading into the next phase of that 66 – 69-day cycle in early-Dec.
That would take Gold higher into ~Nov. 11/14, which was recently corroborated by its Oct 20/21 low (dividing that 66 – 69-day cycle into thirds and creating a reinforcing 21 – 23 day low-low-high Cycle Progression projecting a rally into Nov 11/14).
A rally into Nov 10/11 would also match the duration of the July 21 – Aug 10 rally and arrive ~90 & ~60 degrees (~3 and ~2 months) from the Aug 10 & Sept 12 highs.
So, Gold & Silver are adhering to this intermediate outlook and are expected to rally during the first ~half of Nov. There are other factors that reinforce the potential for recent lows to hold for 2 – 4 more weeks…
— Gold completed successive declines of ~equal duration (7 months each) while setting its late-Sept ’22 low. That was expected to hold for 1 – 2 months.
— Gold dropped to its weekly HLS (1648.6/GCZ) on Oct 14 – the extreme downside target for that week. That signaled an intermediate bottom should soon take hold and usher in a multi-week rally.
— Gold’s 4-Shadow Signal of July/Aug ’22 projected a subsequent drop to new lows followed by the largest rally since the Mar ’22 peak. It did drop to new lows and then rallied – matching the magnitude of its July/Aug ’22 rally (in half the time; a possible sign of developing, underlying strength).
The ensuing pullback is likely a ‘b’ wave decline and should give way to a ‘c’ wave rally to new 1 – 2 month highs (to fulfill the 4-Shadow Signal) – at least reaching ~1760/GCZ and potentially retesting intra-year trend resistance at ~1795/GCZ…
Since the early-’21 peak, Silver has declined in a fairly clear 3-wave structure (Feb – Sept ‘21 decline, Sept ‘21 – Mar ‘22 rally, Mar – Sept ‘22 decline) – with the initial decline and rebound each containing 3 waves and the subsequent decline possessing 5.
In Elliott Wave terms, that is a textbook 3-3-5 corrective (‘a-b-c’) wave… with the ’a’ & ’c’ waves ’tending toward equality’. This entire decline (Feb ‘21 – Sept ‘22) could be a larger-degree ‘B’ wave decline of a multi-year, upside ‘A-B-C’ correction, following Silver’s 2011 – 2020 decline.
In other words, if a 1 – 2 year bottom is set near current levels, Silver would likely embark on a new 1 – 2.5-year advance and ultimately exceed its early-’21 high… but not its 2011 peak. That could be clarified by the action between now and year-end.
If Silver continues to hold its early-Sept low through year-end (even if Gold drops to a new low and creates a divergent bottom), it would increase the chances for a larger-magnitude advance in 2023.”
Silver is validating projections for Sept ’22 shift when Silver begins to overtake Gold (reversal in Gold/Silver ratio) and sees stronger rallies due to multiple factors. Silver’s initial intermediate advance is projected to take it up to 22.50/SIZ with the potential to surge as high as 24.50 – 25.00/SI before the end of 2022. Platinum is showing similar signs of developing strength and should rally through November.
What Does (Potential) Shift of Gold/Silver Ratio Portend?
Could Platinum Surge with Silver?
How Does Current Action Corroborate 2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.