Gold, Silver & XAU Corroborate Cycles; Portend Future Low on Aug 14 – 25, ‘23.
06-24-23 – “The Dollar is building further cycle synergy in Aug ’23, with a 23 – 24 week & 11 – 12-week high-high-(high?) Cycle Progression converging on Aug 14 – 25, ’23.
The Euro did the inverse while neutralizing its weekly downtrend for the second time after spiking up to its intermediate target at 1.1060/ECU. Looking out a little, the Euro has converging cycles in Aug ’23 that are likely to time a low when a 45 – 46-week high-low-low-(low?) Cycle Progression recurs on Aug 7 – 18, ‘23…
The next multi-month cycle low in Gold is most likely in late-Aug ’23. A low on Aug 21 – 25, ’23 would complete both a 50% and a .618 retracement in time (both lows of late-2022 double bottom used to calculate the ensuing rally), a 16-week/26-week low-low-low (1/1.618) cycle, and a ~3-month/~90-degree low (Nov 23) – low (Feb 27) – low (May 25/26) – (low; Aug 23 – 28) Cycle Progression…
The XAU & HUI turned their weekly trends down and closed below their descending weekly 21 Low MACs – reinforcing the weakness and negative outlook that has been in place since late-April.
In mid-April (similar to 2022), they set highs while matching the duration of their 2021/22 rallies (~28 weeks) and peaked ~12 months/~360 degrees from their mid-April ’22 highs. The XAU also matched the price magnitude of its prior advance, reinforcing the likelihood for a multi-month peak and the onset of a correction that could last into Aug/Sept ‘23.
Ultimately, these indexes could drop back to (or below) their early-March lows – which now represent 4th wave of lesser degree support near 110.0/XAU & 210/HUI. During the month of June, the XAU is still likely to drop below 116.72 (and 224.28/HUI) to keep its monthly 21 Low MAC heading lower.
An intra-year low is most likely in Aug/Sept ’23 – the latest phase of a ~12-month high (Aug ’19) – high (Aug ’20) – low (Sept ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – (low; Aug/Sept ’23) Cycle Progression.
A low in late-Aug ’23 would perpetuate its uncanny ~23-week high-high-high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and fulfill a broader, overlapping 45 – 51 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.”
Gold & Silver remain below the lows set while fulfilling multi-month upside price targets AND cycles/timing indicators that peaked on May 3 – 5, ’23 (while convincingly reinforcing two future cycles). They completed initial sell-offs in May ‘23 with the weekly trends providing additional corroborating clues – projecting a new decline after a reactive bounce – that is ultimately projected to stretch into the second half of Aug ’23, when a myriad of weekly & monthly cycle lows converge.
The XAU possesses the most consistent and uncanny weekly cycle – a 23-week high (Jun ’21) – high (Nov ’21) – high (Apr 18 – 22, ’22) – low (Sept 26 – 30, ’22) – low (Mar 6 – 10, ’23) – (low; Aug 14 – 21, ’23) Cycle Progression that portends a multi-month bottom on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (greatest synergy of cycles on Aug 15 – 18, ’23). Related cycles in Gold & HUI overlap this period, projecting a multi-month bottom during that week or the week the days that follow (overall period of Aug 14 – 25, ’23).
From a broader perspective, the early-May ’23 peaks powerfully corroborated the other primary cycle focus for 2023 – the time frame in/around late-Oct/early-Nov ’23. That remains a decisive cycle, with some surprising expectations for the months leading into it! A strong rally could begin in the second half of Aug ’23 and last into late-Oct/early-Nov ’23.
How Does Early-May Peak Corroborate Aug – Nov ’23 Cycles?
Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding? If so, When is a Breakout Likely??
How Are Interest Rates & Inflation Creating a Unique Opportunity?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure for expanded analysis that addresses some of those questions.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.