Gold/Silver Portend Imminent Lows as Dollar Nears Peak; Inflation Returning.
01-04-25 – “The start of 2025 ushers in multiple cycles of instability – in the markets and outside of them.
From a geopolitical perspective, 2025 identifies the culmination of the latest 80-Year Cycle of War (1781 – 1785, 1861 – 1865, 1941 – 1945 & 2021 – 2025) at the same time it identifies the latest phase of the 8-Year Cycle of Attacks on/in America. That was highlighted in the December ‘24 INSIIDE Track and quickly validated with multiple (terror) attacks on January 1, 2025.
It is also a time of (expected) heightened geophysical instability as multi-decade and multi-generational earth disturbance cycles enter their intensification stage. The June 2024 INSIIDE Track revisited some of these cycles and included the 17-Year Cycle data reprinted above…
Multi-year trend in Gold & Silver is positive, reinforcing projections for major lows in late-2022 and strong multi-year advances to follow (the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War)…
The late-Oct ’24 cycle highs included an uncanny ~12.5 month/~54-week high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression that was expected to usher in a 3 – 6 month top while – at the same time – projecting a future 3 – 6 month peak for Oct/Nov 2025.
During this corrective phase, Gold has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2565/GCG. Silver turned its weekly trend down, reinforcing the likelihood for a decline into Jan ‘25…
If Gold & Silver bottom in January ‘25, they would likely be completing a larger-magnitude wave ‘4’ (or ‘IV’) of the overall advance from the late-2022 low. That would pave the way for a wave ‘5’/’V’ advance into (at least) Oct/Nov 2025. Weekly cycles & timing indicators corroborate this…
On an intermediate basis, the early-Dec highs completed ‘b’ wave rallies and projected ‘c’ wave declines of an overriding ‘IV’ wave correction.
During the 5-wave advance from early-Oct ’23, Silver experienced two multi-month corrections – the wave ‘2’ & wave ‘4’ declines – that were close to equal… both ~11 weeks in duration.
The sell-off that preceded that entire 5-wave advance – the drop from May ’23 into early-Oct ’23 (perceived to be a higher magnitude ‘2’ or ‘II’ wave) – lasted 22 weeks… exactly what might be expected when superseding those other (lesser-magnitude) corrective waves.
If the late-October ’24 peak was a wave ‘III’ peak – as is the prevailing mindset (see Oct ’24 chart reprinted on page 10) – the current ‘a-b-c’ decline should be related to all the previous sell-offs.
At the very least, it should last ~11 weeks in duration – which would have it bottoming on Jan 6 – 10, ’25…
The XAU & HUI have attacked their August lows, the first level of 3 – 6 month support following their October 21/22nd highs that fulfilled upside price targets while perpetuating an ~18-week low-low-low-low-(high; Oct 21 – 25, 2024) Cycle Progression and fulfilling a myriad of other cycles…
The GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) set lower lows in September 2024 – fulfilling ongoing analysis and a precise 39 – 40-week low-high-low-low-(low; Sept ‘24) Cycle Sequence. Related weekly indicators entered a bullish phase in the second half of Dec ‘24 and could ultimately spur a rally back to 600 – 620/GSCI…
The Dollar Index remains strong and is reinforcing its late-Sept ‘24 bottom – the latest phase of a ~3.25-year/~39 – 40 month cycle that has governed the Dollar Index for 3 – 4 decades (from the May 2021 low). It also fulfilled an 80 – 81-month low (May 2011) – low (Jan/Feb 2018) – (low; Sept/Oct 2024) Cycle Progression.
The monthly charts project a secondary peak in January ‘25. The Dollar Index could wait until mid-January before setting that top. A peak at that time would complete back-to-back advances of equal duration (16 weeks each) while perpetuating an ~8-week cycle that has created a low-low-high-low-high Cycle Sequence and is likely to create a successive high on Jan 10 – 17, ’25.”
Gold, Silver & XAU are fulfilling projected sell-offs and preparing for new rallies in 2025. Gold remains in a positive weekly trend (Silver turned down), increasing the potential for a new advance in 2025 as described throughout past months…
11-23-24 – “Gold has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times and would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2541/GCZ.
As long as that does not occur, Gold is poised to enter a new wave higher… That would pave the way for a wave ‘5’/’V’ advance into (at least) Oct/Nov 2025. The similar-magnitude decline in Gold corroborates that wave potential.” — Nov 23, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
The late-October ’24 high reinforces future Gold cycle highs in early-May & early-Nov ’25 while the weekly trend pattern corroborates that Gold remains in an overall uptrend.
See current publications for the most updated analysis.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.