Gold, Silver & XAU Retreat; Prepare for Late-May/early-June Surge into June ’25 Cycle High.
04-29/30-25 – “Outlook 2025 – 17-Year Cycle Update
The year 2025 has been forecast to time a host of dramatic ’shifts’ – many linked to the uncanny 17-Year Cycle. That cycle is closely connected to the magnetic swings in and between the Sun & Earth – corroborated by several scientific discoveries of the past two decades.
As such, it has an oversized impact on mass emotional & psychological swings on Earth…
Gold & Silver powerfully fulfilled both of their divergent trend and cycle objectives with Silver plunging below its Dec ‘24 low – and right to its early-August ‘24 low (and 4th wave of lesser degree support described since 4Q ‘24… see Oct ‘24 chart reprinted above) – as Gold continued higher into multi-month cycles that converge in late-April/early-May ‘25.
They surged into the middle half of April with Gold initially fulfilling its potential for a 1 – 2 month high on April 14 – 25th – the time when a consistent 23 – 24-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression came back into play. Gold also fulfilled an intra-year pattern from recent years…
In that annual ~360-degree cycle, Gold has set a multi-week or multi-month peak in the middle part of April – in sync with the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19th) and/or the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – a time when tensions, conflict and/or safe haven ‘needs’ often culminate in metals.
(On two of those occasions, Gold has subsequently spiked above those highs and set an intraday high in May, so that is not out of the question.)
Gold fulfilled the potential for a blow-off top in line with Natural Year ‘opening month’ analysis (portending an initial surge into ~April 19th as an omen of what could follow in 2025).
That is in lockstep with analysis for another abrupt shift in the ongoing currency battle between paper (fiat), hard (metals), and digital (cryptos) currency. Bitcoin – and stocks – had already set multi-week lows in early-April and were waiting on Gold & the Dollar Index to complete their recent moves.
It was also in sync with the ~7-Year Cycle analysis of Gold discussed over the past ~two years. Each time, that analysis has described how Gold’s 2022 – present advance is mirroring key timing aspects of its 2015 – 2020 advance.
In that previous bull market, Gold initially surged into the middle part of 2016 (after bottoming in 4Q 2015) and then set a subsequent peak in April 2018… that held for over a year.
In the current bull market, Gold bottomed in 4Q 2022 (7 years later), initially surged into the middle part of 2023 (7 years later) and was poised to peak in the middle part of April 2025 – 7 years after the April 2018 peak. That may have just occurred.
One irony in the metals’ market (reinforcing the divergence that has prevailed since mid-Nov ‘24) is that Gold could be setting a multi-month peak within a couple weeks of Silver setting new intra-year and ~6-month lows.
That low reached Silver’s ongoing downside target near 27.60/SIK, precisely fulfilling projections for a ‘C’ wave decline that have been the focus since Dec ‘24.
From a timing perspective, Silver set a low in April ’25 – fulfilling broader geometric cycles that include a move of 180 degrees from its Oct ’24 peak and – looking forward – a low that is ~360 degrees prior to major cycles in ~April 2026.
This entire move has been another example of how the two metals can trade in divergent trends and divergent wave structures… even while rallying & declining (mostly) in tandem.
Since mid-November, when Gold perpetuated a ~14-week low-low-low-(low; Nov 11 – 18, ’24) Cycle Progression while triggering a bullish weekly trend signal, it has been projected to see another major advance in 2025 – taking hold in January and initially lasting into late-April/early-May’ 25.
At the same time, Silver was repeatedly forecast to remain below its late-Oct ’24 peak until a spike below its mid-Dec ’24 low occurred.
That finally occurred on April 4/7th, freeing Silver up to begin a new impulse wave higher (and possibly pivot into the leader of the next advance in metals – a rally that is more inflation driven).
That could be linked to future inflation, global competition for critical metals and minerals, and the tech-related needs of the new economy.
The overriding outlook remains that Gold & Silver are in broader bullish trends and their outlook remains positive. Gold & Silver perpetuated a ~7-year low (4Q ‘01) – low (4Q ‘08) – low (4Q ‘15) – low (4Q ‘22) Cycle Progression in October ‘22 and have been projected to undergo a multi-year advance into 2026/2027 or later.
The XAU & HUI surged into mid-April after plunging to 1 – 2 month support in early-April and reaffirming its intra-year uptrend. That support included the Feb ’25 low (150.84), the ‘25 opening range high (resistance turned into support at 152.18/XAU) and the March ’25 low at 152.48/XAU.
The XAU spiked down to 152.02 on April 7th – reversing higher from its rising weekly 21 AND 40 High MACs – a bullish development that spurred a surge into diverse resistance and a monthly LHR (extreme upside target) at 196.33 – 199.56/XAU.
It also spiked up to range-trading resistance near 199.00/XAU – linking previous range parameters (throughout 2023 – present) at ~103 – ~135 – ~167 – ~199/XAU. (The next target would be 231/XAU.)
For now, the overall uptrend remains solidly intact and could spur a new rally into June ‘25 – the next phase of the XAU’s ~2-month, ~4-month & ~8-month cycles and also the target (June/July) for the intra-year uptrend.
A ~14-week & ~28-week low-low-(??) Cycle Progression come into play in mid-July ‘25 but related expectations are not yet ascertained. The ~7-week midpoint – in late-May ‘25 – could clarify.
Platinum rallied into late-April but could not give a weekly close above 1036/PLN, leaving it stuck in a multi-month trading range This rally fulfills the latest phase of the ~3-month/~90-degree cycle (and midpoint of a related ~6-month/180-degree cycle) that helped pinpoint the early-Feb ’25 peak.
It also reinforces the potential for a subsequent peak in early-August ’25. To reiterate…
Platinum has been trading in a narrowing range for over 3 years, since its March ‘22 peak spurred a sell-off into its Sept ‘22 low. On a continuous-contract basis, Platinum has not exceeded that March ‘22 high or dropped below that Sept ‘22 low.
It subsequently rallied into a (lower) high in April ‘23 and then dropped to a (higher) low in Nov ‘23. That spurred a rally into a (lower) high in May ‘24 followed by a drop to a (higher) low in Dec ‘24… the time when a more bullish 12 – 18-month cycle began to take hold.
Following that late-Dec ‘24 low, Platinum rallied into mid-Feb ‘25 and has since declined – turning its weekly trend back down and delaying the onset of a new advance.
Platinum remains capable of turning its monthly 21 High MAC up, for the first time since October ‘23, but it would now take a rally above 1050.5/PLN during the month of May ‘25. On a continuous-contract basis, it has turned that average up but the July ‘25 contract has not yet concurred.
On a broader basis, Platinum could rally into 2026 – a 50% rebound in time (12 years down/6 years up) and the latest phase of a ~5-year high (2011) – high (2016) – high (2021) – (high; 2026) Cycle Progression that parallels the Silver outlook.
Palladium remains above its August ‘24 low but did spike to new intra-year lows in early-April – also delaying the onset of a new advance. In the middle of May ‘25, Palladium will have the most favorable setup for the weekly 21 MAC to turn up… but only if it can rally above 970/PAM during the week of May 12 – 16th.
A more bullish pattern would unfold if it can pair that with a weekly close above 1010/PAM – allowing it to close above the weekly 21 High MAC and above its ~2-month high. Until that occurs, Palladium is in congestion – a little above multi-year lows.
On a longer-term basis, Palladium is expected to enter a new bull market in 2025 and stretch that into 3Q 2026 – when the next multi-year peak appears most likely. A peak in 3Q ‘26 would fulfill a ~5.25-year low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression as well as a .618 rebound in time (39-month decline followed by 24-month rally).
An intervening peak in Aug/Sept 2025 would reinforce that scenario.
Copper plunged after fulfilling a myriad of upside price and timing targets in late-March and projecting a multi-week peak.
It fulfilled a ~4-week high-low-low-low-low-(high; Mar 24 – 28, ’25) Cycle Progression while attacking a major upside trading range target at ~5.350/HG (3.400 – 4.050 – 4.700 – 5.350/HG)… and quickly plummeted to related range-trading support near 4.050/HG, where a multi-week low was set.
As long as that 6 – 12 month support holds, and Copper maintains its intra-year uptrend, it remains in an overall uptrend and could soon enter a new wave higher.”
Gold & Silver are retreating after surging into late-April, following Silver’s early-April (6 – 12 month?) bottom that fulfilled its 3 – 6 month downside objective by testing ~27.60/SIK, its 4th wave of lesser degree support. That was in sync with the outlook for Platinum & Palladium, with both entering bullish cycles on April 7 – 11th and expected to surge into June ’25 as part of larger, overall advances. That reinforces the 17-Year Cycle impact on Silver.
17-Year Cycle & Silver: April ’25 Low
Gold, Silver & the XAU were expected to set initial highs at this time, which would provide preliminary corroboration to the outlook for April ’25 – April ’26. Platinum & Palladium are similar and are projected to enter more significant rallies – leading into the next phase of Platinum’s ~5-week cycle on June 6 – 13, ’25). The April ’25 INSIIDE Track detailed why Platinum is on the cusp of a Major advance (along with Silver & Palladium), stating: “This could be one of the ‘golden’ (or is that ‘platinum’) trading opportunities of 2025!”
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow (into at least 2025/2026 and potentially longer)…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
April 2025 ushered in a new and reinforcing phase of this overall shift and could be the first phase of major rallies in key metals (Platinum & Palladium) and the next phase for Gold & Silver. See current publications for the most updated analysis.
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