Gold/Silver Projecting Pullbacks to ~1850/GC & ~21.50/SI; XAU & HUI Similar.
01/28/23 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver remain strong and have been expected to work higher – on balance – into late-Feb/early-Mar ’23 – a ~360-degree cycle from the 2022 peak and a 51- 52-week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression (Feb 27 – Mar 10, ’23) that would complete a 50% rebound in time (34 wks down/17 wks up).
In the interim, they were expected to surge into early-Jan ’23 when Silver set a multi-week peak (perpetuating a 6-week high-high-high-high-low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression that comes back into play on Feb 14 – 17) while Gold merely paused. Gold then triggered a new buy signal and turned its intra-month trend up, extending its rally.
As Gold rallied to ascending highs leading into this past week, Silver set descending lows and spiked down to its monthly support and mid-Dec ’22 low – reaching short-term support and setting a multi-day low. A break below that level could project drop to ~21.50/SIH, potentially 21.00/SIH.
This is occurring after Silver perpetually attacked – and held – its primary ~4-month upside target (and the precise target for its Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern) around 24.50/SIH… and is likely to correct to (at least) ~21.50/SIH.
Gold remains in bullish territory and would show no signs of a near-term peak until a daily close below 1898.6/GCG. One possibility, based on Gold’s recent range trading, is for Gold to pull back to ~1850/GCJ in the coming week(s) and then rally to ~xxxx/GCJ during a subsequent rally…
A pullback to ~1850/GCJ would reinforce that range support AND create a multi-month LLH projecting a rally to ~xxxx/GCJ… Not surprisingly, 1853/GCJ will be the weekly 40 Low MARC on Feb 6 – 10, the first time that longer-term MAC would have the chance to turn up since June ’22. (That is a very lagging indicator.)
On a broader basis, Gold & Silver continue to build the case for a major low being set – in Sept ’22 for Silver and 4Q ’22 (Nov ’22) in Gold – the early stages of what could be 6 – 12 month (and possibly 1 – 2 year) advances.
The Nov ’22 INSIIDE Track reiterated this potential and why the early-Sept ’22 low in Silver was likely a major ‘B’ wave low before a 1 – 2 year ‘C’ wave rally. (Platinum has a similar wave structure and outlook.)
After a ~2-year flat correction in Gold (Aug ’20 & Mar ’22 highs near same levels and Mar ’21 & Oct/ Nov ’22 lows near same levels), that was almost a perfect 50% retracement in time (56 months up/27 months down), Gold is likely tracing out the first impulse wave of a larger, overall advance…
The XAU & HUI fulfilled ongoing projections for overall advances to 135 – 137/XAU & 250 – 260/HUI with both indexes rallying right to, and spiking above, their Jan ’23 LLRs, weekly LHRs (137.07/ XAU & 261.98/HUI), and the XAU’s monthly 21 Low MARC & 21 High AMAC (136.22 – 138.99/XAU).
That occurred at the same time they were testing and holding weekly resistance zones (137.29 – 139.84/XAU & 259.42 – 262.31/HUI). The intra-month high is 139.37, bumping right up against the declining monthly 21 High MAC at 139.01/XAU.
That is expected to spur a drop to their mid-Dec lows near 115/XAU & 220/HUI. In the interim, there is one very important factor surrounding the month-end close. If these indexes close above 126.12/XAU & 240.02/HUI on Jan 31, they would [reserved for subscribers]…
Platinum & Palladium continue to sell off after Platinum peaked while fulfilling an 18 – 19 week low-low-low-low-(high; Jan 3 – 13, ‘23) Cycle Progression. At the very least, this should spur a drop back to 970 – 980/PLJ…
Palladium has taken 11 months to retrace the ~3-month surge it experienced in late-‘21/early-’22. It is nearing the low of Dec ‘21 (~1550/PA) – a level that represents 1 – 2 year support.
Copper is reinforcing recent strength and is likely to ultimately extend this advance into early-March ’23. An intervening low could be seen around Feb. 10/13, the next phase of a 5 – 6-week/37 – 39-day low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.”
Silver fulfilled projections for a multi-month advance to 24.50 – 25.00/SI into early-Jan ’23 when a multi-week or multi-month peak was/is likely. It is expected to correct to (at least) 21.50/SI before a pullback low is likely. Gold is reinforcing its early-Nov ’22 buy signals and triggered a new buy signal in early-Jan, reinforcing the outlook for an overall rally into Feb/Mar ’23.
The XAU & HUI are corroborating this outlook and on track for surges above 135/XAU & 250/HUI. Platinum spiked above 1100/PL while fulfilling weekly cycles on Jan 3 – 13.
How High Could Gold Reach in 1Q ‘23?
How Could This Impact Future Cycle Highs (in 3Q ’23)?
How Long Should Silver its early-Jan ’23 Cycle High?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.