Gold/Silver Pull Back to Support; New Surge Expected… 2022 Test of 24.50/SI Likely!
11/19/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver extended their surges, fulfilling the outlook for a sharp rally into Nov 11 – 16… when the latest daily high was most likely. The intra-month trends projected that (initial) high to take hold on Nov 14 – 16. It took hold on Nov 15.
That allowed it to exceed the duration of the July 21 – Aug 10 rally, reinforcing underlying strength. It also allowed Silver to complete successive rallies of equal duration (33 days each; Sept 1 – Oct 4 & Oct 14 – Nov 16) and initially peak ~3 months/~90 degrees from its Aug 15 ’22 high.
Gold attacked its intra-year trend resistance (Jan ’22 low) at 1793.5 – 1795.0/GCZ and then pulled back. At the same time, Silver reached its initial upside target and intra-year trend resistance at 22.20 – 22.50/SIZ and pulled back. These levels are likely to be penetrated during the next rally…
The next rally could catapult Silver above 23.00/SIZ and ultimately to 24.50 – 24.90/SIZ. Since early-July, Silver has traced out an inverted head-and-shoulders with the neckline at ~21.00/SIZ (left shoulder = July 14 penultimate low, head = Sept 1 ultimate low, right shoulder = Oct 14 secondary low) and the resulting upside target at ~24.50/SIZ.
24.50/SIZ is also where Silver initially found support after its early-March peak. And 24.93/SIZ is final intra-year trend resistance (Jan ’22 high).
Gold & Silver fulfilled analysis for a sharp rally from Nov 3 into mid-month, accelerating higher in line with reversing MACs and other indicators. They both attacked their Jan ’22 lows – pivotal levels of intra-year trend resistance that have been viewed as primary upside targets.
Both pulled back with Silver closing the week right at its previous mid-Aug ’22 high (resistance turned into support) after spiking down to the level of its mid-May low – a higher magnitude inverted head-and-shoulders’ shoulder. If they are to reverse higher and undergo another surge into late-Nov, Silver should not give a daily close below 20.78/SIZ.
The XAU & HUI rallied into mid-Nov, fulfilling their intra-month uptrends and attacking initial upside targets. They pulled back and neutralized their daily uptrends multiple times but did not turn them down. Considering they remained in intra-month uptrends, they could now see another surge…
That could propel them up to (or above) secondary up upside targets at 130 – 137/XAU & 245 – 251/HUI. 130.86 & 131.29/XAU is the monthly & weekly LHR.
Platinum & Palladium remain on divergent paths but both pulled back after rallying into mid-month. Their daily trend patterns, as well as Platinum’s intra-month trend, daily & weekly 21 MAC trends, and intermediate wave structure could spur another sharp rally…
Copper attacked its 3Q ’21 lows (support turned into resistance) and sold off in line with its weekly trend pattern. It remains capable of seeing an overall advance to its ~4.100/HGZ upside target.”
Silver is reinforcing the outlook for an overall advance into 1Q ’23 with the potential to surge as high as 24.50 – 25.00/SI before the end of 2022. Platinum is showing similar signs of developing strength and should rally, on balance, into Jan ‘23 and ideally March ‘23. Gold is beginning to confirm a bottom (monthly cycles bottom in 4Q ’22) and could surge above 1900/GC into 1Q ’23.
What Would 2022 Test of 24.50/SIH Mean for 2023?
Will Platinum AND Copper Surge with Silver?
What About Gold… and its Outlook into Late-‘23?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.