Gold/Silver Rallying as Bitcoin & Ether Set Divergent Highs, Fulfilling Cycle Peaks.
01-22-25 – “The Dollar Index has (initially) fulfilled the 2 – 3 month outlook for an overall rally into – and a multi-month top during – January ’25. This comes after it set a 3 – 6 month (or longer) low in late-Sept ’24 low – the latest phase of a ~3.25-year/~39 – 40 month cycle that has governed the Dollar for decades.
The Dollar Index initially peaked last week – completing back-to-back advances of equal duration (16 weeks each) and perpetuating an ~8-week low-low-high-low-high Cycle Sequence that projected an intermediate high on Jan. 13 – 17, ’25.
It has turned its daily trend down and could correct (on balance) into early-February.
The Euro fulfilled the outlook for an overall decline into January ’25, when a multi-month low would become a much higher probability.
A low at any time in this 2-month period would also perpetuate a 28 – 29-month high-high-low-low-(low; Jan/Feb ’25) Cycle Progression. (That also means a future low is still possible in February ’25, unless the weekly trends turn up in the interim.)
Since mid-June, the Euro has also adhered to a ~5-week cycle – creating a ~5-week low-high-high-high-high-high Cycle Progression with the previous phase fulfilled at the Dec 6th peak. That projected a ~5-week decline into January 13th, ’25 – when a multi-week low was a higher probability.
A future low is likely during the week of February 17 – 21, ’25… 5 weeks later. The intervening action should clarify whether that would be a secondary (higher) low or a lower low (that would still be within the 28 – 29-month cycle parameters).
The Euro has rallied sharply but needs a daily close above 1.0483/ECH to elevate this advance to a higher magnitude.
The Yen has produced initial signs of a low but needs a daily close above .6490/JYH to turn the daily trend up and confirm a multi-week bottom.
Bitcoin & Ether are expanding their divergence with Ether twice bouncing to its daily 21 High MAC and remaining well below its Jan 7th high as Bitcoin rallied and retested its major peak after turning its daily trend back up.
Bitcoin is setting its highest daily close exactly 6 months from a previous high daily close (July 22nd) as it traces out a ‘wave 5’ rally – after bottoming right at its 4th wave of lesser degree support. The coming days should be pivotal, particularly if Bitcoin fails to close above its mid-December (intraday) peak.
Gold and Silver remain in corrective phases that began after they fulfilled multi-month cycle highs in late-October ’24 and entered what was/is likely to be a multi-month decline into a new 6 – 12-month bottom (in early-2025).
The late-Oct ’24 cycle highs included an uncanny ~12.5 month/~54-week high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression that was expected to usher in a 3 – 6 month top and subsequent pullback…
The Silver chart included in previous publications – including the January 2025 INSIIDE Track – illustrated this (perceived) wave structure and details why the current correction should be comparable to the one that unfolded in May – October 2023.
[There is even a chance, depending on the price action of the next couple weeks, that Silver’s overall correction could equal the duration of the 2023 decline by stretching into March 2025. That is yet to be determined but would involve a multi-week low in late-January… followed by a sizeable rally and then a retest of those lows in March 2025.]
During this correction, Gold has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2565/GCG. That leaves it in a multi-month consolidation phase – remaining in over-arching trading ranges, vacillating back and forth from one extreme to the other.
In contrast, Silver turned its weekly trend down in December… That weekly trend reversal – a lagging/confirming indicator – usually times an initial low and the onset of a reactive multi-week rally…
Daily closes below 2715/GCG & 30.75/SIH are needed to signal new weakness and show that these multi-week rebounds are complete. Until those occur, Gold & Silver remain in multi-week rebounds.”
Gold, Silver & XAU are poised for new rallies in 2025 as Gold remains in a positive weekly trend (Silver turned down), reinforcing the outlook for additional upside in 2025 and a future peak in 4Q ’25 – as described in past months…
11-23-24 – “Gold has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times and would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2541/GCZ.
As long as that does not occur, Gold is poised to enter a new wave higher… That would pave the way for a wave ‘5’/’V’ advance into (at least) Oct/Nov 2025. The similar-magnitude decline in Gold corroborates that wave potential.” — Nov 23, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
The late-October ’24 high reinforces future Gold cycle highs in early-May & early-Nov ’25 while the weekly trend pattern corroborates that Gold remains in an overall uptrend.
See current publications for the most updated analysis.
INSIIDE Track Trading – Subscriptions Order Page
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.