Gold & Silver Reinforcing Potential for 1 – 2 Month Lows.
07/27/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Gold & Silver are bouncing after testing and holding major support levels. Both declined to the levels of their early-2020 highs. Silver fulfilled a ~6-week low-low-low-low-high-high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression that bottomed on July 11 – 18.
That also allowed Silver to match the duration of its two longest declines of the past few years. All three have been ~18 (17 – 19) weeks in duration – unfolding in Aug – Nov ’20, May – Sept ’21 and now Mar – July ’22… Gold & Silver could fulfill longer-term cycles that have been focused on Aug/Sept ’22 for a second (lower) peak in 2022…
Gold matched the magnitude of its Aug ’20 – Mar ’21 decline while fulfilling an intermediate HHL objective in the Dec ’22 contract (~1710/GCZ) and testing the levels of its Mar & Aug ’21 lows (and Feb/Mar ’20 high). Gold also fulfilled a ~2-year ‘flat’ correction – with successive highs at the same level (~2080/GC) and successive lows at the same level (~1680/GC).
That is almost identical to what Gold did after its initial high in 3Q 2016…
Following its 3Q ’16 high, Gold entered a ~2-year ‘flat’ correction during which its greatest loss was ~18.5% (from peak to bottom).
Following its 3Q ’20 high, Gold entered a ~2-year ‘flat’ correction during which its greatest loss was ~18.5% (from peak to bottom).
Of all the markets, Gold & Silver are the most likely to experience a ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’ reaction to today’s rate hike. In recent months, metals have been suppressed by the fear of climbing interest rates. However, the consensus is that today was probably the extreme when it comes to the amount of rate hike.”
Gold & Silver are corroborating multi-month cycles that peaked in 1Q ‘22 while Gold was fulfilling the primary upside target for a ‘5’ of ‘V’ wave peak (a top that is likely to hold for at least 6 – 12 months). The XAU/HUI Indexes set subsequent peaks in April ’22 – fulfilling very consistent ~23-week & ~10-month cycles in both. The ~10-month cycle projects a future peak in Feb ’23 and provides important clues as to when an intervening multi-month bottom is most likely.
Gold fulfilled a primary (3 – 6 month) objective by dropping back to ~1680/GC (see 5/11/22 issue of The Bridge as well as related publications) as part of multi-year wave structure and a larger decline in Gold now that a wave ‘V’ peak is likely intact. Gold just attacked that support and is holding above it so a 1 – 2 month bottom could take hold.
What Would Future Close Below 1680/GC Mean for Gold? …And When is that More Likely?
How Does Gold/Silver Action Reinforce 2022 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.