Gold/Silver Retracing; Project New Surge into Early-December ’23!
11-08-23 – “Gold & Silver are correcting after their initial October surges (wave ‘1’), creating what is likely a lower magnitude wave ‘2’ retracement. The weekly 21 MAC has not quite (yet) turned up in Gold, indicating that another accelerated advance could take hold after this sell-off. It would take a rally above 2024/GCZ this week (or above 2010/GCZ next week or above 1981/GCZ on Nov 20 – 24) to turn the weekly 21 High MAC up.
From a price perspective, Gold maintains its primary upside (1 – 2 month) target at ~2070/GCZ, possibly spiking as high as 2130/GCZ. Reinforcing that, Gold’s weekly LHR is again at 2070/GCZ this week. That LHR is in the middle of monthly resistance levels – the ideal upside target for the month of November.
The ~2-month rally from early-March into early-May ‘23 saw Gold gain ~246.0/GCZ. A similar-magnitude rally from the early-Oct ’23 low of 1823.5/GCZ projects a (minimum) surge to/above 2069.4/GCZ.
2072/GC is the continuous-contract high set in early-March ’22 AND early-May ’23… a level that should ultimately be exceeded. In 2020 & 2022, Gold began sharp 3 – 5-week, 14 – 15% surges.
A 14% surge now projects a rally to 2078/GCZ. A 15% surge projects a rally to 2097/GCZ.
And if this is a higher magnitude advance evolving, Gold could easily exceed those ‘equivalent’ targets. ~2070/GCZ is merely the minimum upside objective for this latest 1 – 2 month rally in Gold.
Gold initially surged in October, setting its highest weekly close, since late-July ’23, on Nov 3, 2023. During that initial rally, it only made it to 2020/GCZ, so price analysis maintains higher potential for this overall advance…. showing the early-Nov ’23 cycle high in Gold, like Silver, will only be the first in a progression of successively higher highs.
The weekly trend remains the most important filter. Gold needs a weekly close above 2019.7/GCZ to turn the weekly trend up. If/when that occurs, a 1 – 2 month peak would likely coincide (at that time or in the ensuing 1 – 2 weeks) – since that is a lagging/confirming indicator that often reverses near the peak of an initial rally.
From a broader perspective, long-term decennial and geometric cycles are focused on 2023 – 2025 as a likely time for a major rally in Silver (see Nov ’23 INSIIDE Track for details). The Sept 2022 low was expected to be a multi-year low and the recent Oct 2 – 6, ’23 low was likely the end of Silver’s wave II retracement. It fulfilled a textbook .618 retracement in time – 35 weeks up & 22 weeks down – as well as ~11-week high-high-(low) AND ~15-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progressions.
Silver is expected to reach 25.40 – 26.00/SIZ (possibly higher) as part of this 1 – 2 month advance. A rally to that level would also turn the monthly AND weekly 21 MACs back up. Silver has its greatest synergy of cycles converging in early-Jan ’23, when a multi-month rally could ultimately peak.** (**Silver also has a ~7-month/ ~30-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression recurring on Dec 1 – 8, ’23.)
It set an initial peak… as it marks time and waits for its weekly 21 MAC to enter the most favorable time for a second accelerated advance. The ideal time for that to occur – based on the levels of the declining weekly 21 MARC when compared to current price levels – begins on Nov 20 – 24, ’23.
The XAU & HUI remain poised for a rally to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI. November’s LHR is 132.52/XAU, reinforcing that scenario, creating three successive LHRs at 129.94 – 133.81/XAU. The monthly 21 High MAC is near 131.80/XAU. They need weekly closes above 119.32/XAU & 233.88/HUI to reverse their weekly trends up.”
Gold & Silver (and XAU/HUI) are fulfilling ongoing projections for a sharp multi-week rally in 4Q ’23 as metals enter the time when major advances are forecast. Middle East War Cycles returned in October ’23 and were powerfully fulfilled, spurring this latest surge in metals. A new surge is expected to soon take hold and trigger rallies into early-December ’23 & ultimately into the first half of January 2024.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! This should have a dramatic impact on the US Dollar and could coincide with a pullback in interest rates.
Why & When is Gold Likely to Attack ~2070/GC… and Potentially ~2130/GC?
How Do Early-October ’23 Cycle Lows Reinforce 2024 Outlook?
Why Do They Project Subsequent Surges into early-Dec ’23 & early/mid-Jan ’24?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.