Gold, Silver, Russia & China Cycles in 2015
09/30/14 INSIIDE Track: “Gold & Silver – Long-term trend in Gold is neutral while Silver is down. A 1–2 year (multi-year) low was expected in 4Q 2013 while a 3–5 year bottom is expected in mid-2015…
The Sum of its Parts
…it is the synergy of converging cycles that increases their probability and predictability. Sometimes this is an organic event, like when every 4th, ~17-Year Cycleclosely coincides with a 70-Year Cycle.
As reiterated last month, the 70-Year Cycle has increased significance & synergy since it closely aligns with the 17-Year Cycle (multiples). The 17-Year Cycle(which is actually slightly over 17 years) doubles to a ~34-Year Cycle (closer to 34.5 years) which then doubles to a 68 (–69)-Year Cycle… bumping up against the 70-Year Cycle.
The synergy of these cycles creates a 68–70 year time frame in which many diverse cycles converge. That synergy is mainly due to multiplication.
Cord of Three Strands
Other times, it is an overlap of cycles, like 2014–2017 when a host of 40-Year & 70-Year Cycles converge. And, when independent 17-Year, 40-Year & 70-Year Cycles converge – it represents a unique event that is akin to the Biblical ‘cord of three strands’… that is not quickly broken.
Cord of Three (National) Strands
Of course, when independent 17-Year, 40-Year & 70-Year Cycles – in three separate and very powerful/influential nations – converge, it is more like two ‘cords of three strands’ wrapped together… making it even more difficult to ‘break’ (or at least difficult to ignore)…
On the adjacent pages, I have detailed two unique cycle sequences – one in China and one in Russia. However, they possess a lot of overlap. And speaking of Russian/Asian overlap, the Eurasian Economic Union – announced on May 29, 2014 – is set to take hold on Jan. 1, 2015.
And speaking of Asia, Hong Kong is coming back to life – or falling apart – one 17-Year Cycle from its turn-over to China in 1997…
Gold & Silver – after turning back down a month early (but still within the projected 3Q 2014 cycle reversal) have signaled the onset of the next phase of their multi-year bear market. Both metals confirmed that on Sept. 2nd – breaking below key support levels and turning various trends down.
That does not eliminate the potential for a high around Oct. 10th – 90 degrees from the July 10th high and the next phase of a 29-week high–high–(high?) CycleProgression… but does show that it would be a lower high. In the interim, a 4-month/~120-degree low (Jan. 30th)–low (May 30th)–low (Sept. 30th) Cycle Progression in Silver could time an intermediate bottom. That is corroborated by a 2-month/~60-degree low (April 1st)–low (June 2nd)–low (Aug. 1st)–low (Oct. 1st) Cycle Progressionin Gold.
More important is what this action reinforces for the next 6–12 months… into 2015 when diverse yearly and monthly cycles converge.
For starters, there is an uncanny 11-year cycle (sunspot related??) between Major lows in Silver. That creates a sequence between the 1971 low–1982 low (88% drop)–1993 low (77% drop)–2004 low (35% drop)–potential 2015 low (already dropped 66%).
A 70% drop (2xs 1993–2004 % decline and .786 x 1971–1982 % decline) would have Silver spiking below 15.000/SI as part of this bear market.
Then there is an overlapping 7-year cycle high (1973)–high (1980)–high (1987)–low (1994 was cycle low but price low came in 1993)–low (2001)–low (2008)–low (2015) Cycle Progression.
The Feb. 2014 high in Silver perpetuated its ~16-month cycle reinforced the potential for an overall drop into 2015. That perpetuates a 15-17 month high (May ‘11)–high (Sept/Oct. ‘12)–high (Feb./Mar. 2014)– (low in June/July 2015?) Cycle Progression. (Prior to the May 2011 Major peak, Silver had a 17-month high-high-high sequence, linking its July 2008 secondary high, Dec. 2009 high & its ultimate May 2011 high.)
The initial Silver decline into June 2013 created a corroborating high-low-(low) Cycle Progression. (May 2011 high – June 2013 low – July 2015 low)…
Palladium is the one metal that peaked in perfect synch with a myriad of cycles, setting its highest monthly close in August 2014 – perpetuating a 68-month low (April ‘03)–low (Dec. ‘08)–high Cycle Progression AND a 34-month low (Dec. ‘08)–low (Oct. ‘11)–high Cycle Progression AND a 17-month low (Oct. ‘11)–high (Mar. ‘13)–high Cycle Progression… as well as a ~3-year low (Dec ‘08)–low (Oct. ‘11)–high Cycle Progression.
It also reached is major upside objectives at 910.0–915.0/PA – setting an intraday high at 913.0/PAZ on Sept. 2nd (while leaving the Aug. 29th close as the highest close of the move). Ultimately, this decline could last into early-2015.
From a long-term perspective, Palladium is fulfilling projections for a major peak in 2014 that perpetuates a 10-11 year low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression. The more recent phases create an 11-year low (1992)-low (2003)-(high) Cycle Progression projecting a major top in 2014. That 11-Year Cycle is roughly double the 68-month cycle – creating a web of cycle multiples from 17 months up to 11 years.”
Palladium is fulfilling MAJOR, multi-year upside objectives, reinforcing expectations for Gold & Silver to enter new declines – expected to ultimately last into July 2015 when a Major bottom is cyclically most likely. Gold & Silver bulls should be patient but prepare for this potential, mid-2015 low.