Gold, Silver & XAU Fulfill Uncanny Web of Cycles in Late-Aug. as Gold/Silver Ratio Hits Extreme; Should September Sell-off Start Soon?
09/04/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – GC/SI/XAU and the Web of Cycles: “Price action is bringing some clarity to the latest web of cycles in precious metals. In order to best appreciate the significance of this web, it is important to step back and view it from the broadest perspective… before progressively honing that focus to the shortest-term perspective…
In the case of all the precious metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum. Palladium & the XAU Index), they were all forecast to rally from 3Q ’18 into 3Q ’19 – and then ultimately into 3Q/4Q 2020. That analysis has been reiterated a myriad of times since late-2018. In the most general sense, a multi-month peak in 3Q 2019 would arrive at the midpoint of the overall projected advance.
The first phase was projected to take metals initially higher into late-Feb./early-March ’19, trigger a pullback into April ’19, and then trigger new rallies from May ’19 into 3Q ’19… when a more accelerated phase (the ‘3’ wave following a ‘1’ wave rally into Feb. and ‘2’ wave decline into April/May ’19) would unfold.
Based on monthly cycles, Gold was again poised to lead that rally – as it did in Aug. ’18 – Feb. ’19, bottoming in late-April and then surging into June/July ’19 before pulling back.
Silver, Platinum & the XAU took a little longer to bottom and were forecast to rally into Aug. ’19. Since these monthly cycles diverged, it left some uncertainty as to how successive highs would unfold.
Gold rallied into June 25 and then consolidated. It retested that high in mid-July (‘b’ wave peak) but never closed above it, ushering in a second pullback. It spiked to a second pullback low on Aug. 1 (completing back-to-back corrections of 9 trading days and ~55.0/GC each – a symmetrical ‘c = a’ wave comparison) and then entered a new advance after completing its pullback.
Meanwhile, the XAU was expected to rally into early-Aug. (Aug. 6 – 9) and then pull back into late-Aug. (Aug. 19 – 23) – when another intermediate low was expected. It has a recurring ~90-degree cycle that timed a high on Feb. 14/15, ’18, successive lows on May 15, Aug. 16 & Nov. 13/14, ’18, a peak on Feb. 20 and then an ensuing low on May 22.
Each of these turning points occurred in the period from the 14 – 22 of the month – at 3-month intervals. Along with weekly cycles, that pinpointed Aug. 19 – 23 as the ideal time for another intermediate low. The XAU rallied into Aug. 7 and then experienced its largest correction since April – bottoming on Aug. 19.
More important than cycles was the price action. The XAU twice neutralized its daily uptrend while dropping back to test and hold its ascending daily 21 Low MAC. Its intra-month trend also went from up to neutral, while spiking lower into the week of Aug. 19 – 23.
On Aug. 20, it re-entered its daily uptrend while closing back above the daily 21 High MAC – breaking back out above the ascending channel. Those daily signals were corroborated by the Aug. 23 weekly outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher – projecting an additional 2 – 3 weeks of upside.
This has taken the Gold/Silver Index (XAU) higher into its own annual cycle…
However, the most significant ‘web’ of cycles comes into play in Gold – reinforcing the focus on 3Q 2019 as a pivotal time in this (projected) ~two-year advance. This web includes the 27 – 29 Week & 55 – 59 Week Cyclesdescribed so often over the past two years.
And, it is a higher-multiple variation of the 7-Week & 14-Week Cycles described repeatedly in 2019. As explained back in Jan. & Feb. ’19, these related cycles often recur at significant turning points.
In its simplest form, this is a web of cycles that includes 7, 14, ~28, ~56 & ~112-Week Cycles – all multiples of a 7- and 14-Week Cycle.
The ~112-Week Cycle timed the two major phases of the descent from Sept. 2011 into Dec. 2015, creating a related high-high-low Cycle Progression that encompassed a total of 222 weeks (just 2 weeks shy of two 112-week cycles).
If the subsequent advance lasts the same duration (222 weeks), it would peak in ~March 2020 (a cycle that has already been discussed in several contexts).
Gold subsequently rallied from Dec. ’15 into Jan. ’18, a precise 112-week rally. 112 weeks in the future – a 112-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression – portends a future peak in ~March 2020.
Even if this overall advance lasts longer than that, which is the current expectation, March 2020 would be a textbook time for a multi-month peak to take hold and make some traders think the bull market is complete (similar to what was projected for late-Feb. ’19 and then for 3Q ’19).
That is how a bull market unfolds and how the expectations for 2019 have been described – a succession of cycle highs that would likely yield higher and higher highs, at progressively quicker intervals.
That 112-Week Cycle broke down into a ~56-Week Cycle (with the timing of successive turning points ranging from 54 – 59 weeks in duration) that helped pinpoint a multi-month peak in late-Feb. ’19 – projecting future focus to March/April ’20 and to the midpoint (27 – 29 weeks) in late-Aug./early-Sept. ‘19.
That 54 – 59 Week Cycle timed a series of lows in 4Q ’13, 4Q ’14, 4Q ’15 & 4Q ’16 – at intervals averaging 56 weeks each – and then projected future turning points for late-Jan. ’18, late-Feb./early-March ’19 & March/ April 2020 (see HCP diagram on page 1 that is reprinted from the Feb. 2019 INSIIDE Track Report – Gold & Silver 2019 – Cycle Crescendo?).
Here again, it projects important focus on that future cycle in ~March 2020.
That ~56-Week Cycle broke down into successive ~28-Week Cycles (27 – 29 weeks) including the decline from Jan. ‘18 into Aug. ’18 (29 weeks), the ensuing rally from Aug. ’18 into Feb. ’19 (27 weeks) and the high – high cycle (potential) for late-Aug./early-Sept. ‘19 (27 – 29 weeks from late-Feb. ’19 peak).
If a high is set now, the midpoint of the latest ~56-Week Cycle from late-Feb. ’19 into March/April ‘20, it would powerfully corroborate that ~March 2020 cycle…
Gold & Silver remain in powerful uptrends, in the midst of a projected ~2-year bull market – from 3Q ’18 into 4Q ’20. 3Q ’19 is one of the two most significant period in between those cycle extremes (the other is March/April 2020).
Silver took the lead in mid-July, for the first time since the 2018 lows, as Gold was in a ~5-week period of consolidation. Since then, Silver has been the metal leading the way higher. That was in sync with diverging cycles in July/Aug. ’19 and the daily 21 MAC action in Silver.
Today, it finally exceeded the Gold/Silver ratio seen in Oct. ’18 & Jan. ’19 (~82/1), the strongest previous Silver showings of the past year.
(Not surprisingly, ~82/1 had been the high ratio prior to early-Sept. ‘18, when Gold took control and pushed the ratio above 82/1. It returned to that ratio in Oct. ’18 & Jan. ’19 – a key level of resistance turned into support– before surging to ~93/1 in early-July ’19. That ratio was near the peak of 2016 – mid-2018, at ~83.5/1.)
Gold has retested its high but not yet broken out. So, the next two days are the key (due also to the new intra-month trends). It would take daily closes below 1528.0/GCZ & 18.365/SIZ to give the first signs of a multi-week top and reversal lower…
The XAU is hesitating near its high but would not show any signs of near-term weakness until a daily close below 97.40. If/when a reversal lower is confirmed, the XAU would be expected to correct into Sept. ’19 – in line with monthly cycles and a corroborating 18 – 19 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression (Sept. 23 – Oct. 4).”
Precious metals peaking in line with uncanny web of weekly cycles in Gold. A multi-month peak in late-Aug./early-Sept. would fulfill a myriad of upside objectives… and reinforce cycles converging in March 2020!
1525 – 1540.0/GC, 18.50/SI & 100.60/XAU upside objectives reached! Diminishing upside potential remains.
Will September Sell-off Start Soon?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.