Gold/Silver September Shift; Silver Taking Lead, Oct ’22 Rally Likely.
09/24/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver continue diverging with Silver still capable of seeing another, larger rally in the weeks to come… Gold & Silver are expanding their recent divergence with Silver pulling back but remaining above short-term support near 18.70/SIZ – as Gold drops to new lows and gives a weekly close below 1 – 2 year support near 1680.0/GCZ.
That action in Gold, which would be confirmed with a monthly close below 1680/GCZ, reinforces the significance of Gold’s early-March ’22 peak that retested its Aug ’20 high while completing a wave 5 of V wave rally and confirming the culmination of Gold’s multi-year advance.
(Depending on the speed and magnitude of this overall decline, Gold could still set [reserved for subscribers]…
Both remain in intra-year and weekly downtrends but Silver is slowly validating expectations for Sept ’22, and increasing the likelihood for a quick accelerated rally that could stretch into the first half of October if price action validates that. It remains in a daily uptrend, so the current pullback is viewed as consolidation.
Consistent with what was described in recent months, Sept ’22 was/is the likely time for Silver to begin to overtake Gold – in respect to the magnitude of its gains and its upside potential. Platinum & Palladium are also showing more relative strength.
Silver remains capable of rallying to ~22.50/SIZ or higher but could also stretch that into Oct ‘22. That would equal Silver’s Feb/Mar ’22 rally while testing the 2022 opening range and the highs of late-May/ early-June ’22. (21.15/SIZ is the weekly LHR.)
A weekly close above 22.20/SIZ would be necessary to neutralize the intra-year downtrend and potentially elevate this rebound.
(If Silver manages to rally above and close above 22.80/SIZ, it would [reserved for subscribers]…
Gold & Silver are mixed with Silver (and other metals) reinforcing the outlook for Sept ’22 while Gold continues to decline after failing to neutralize its daily downtrend or daily 21 MAC downtrend during recent rebounds.
In contrast, Silver initially surged and has remained in a daily uptrend since then. It initially generated a positive daily 21 MAC sequence but then neutralized that on Sept 23.
Beginning on Sept 27, Silver’s inversely-correlated daily 21 High MARC will plunge from 19.38 to 17.86/SIZ over a 4-day period…. that 21 MARC indicator should become a bullish factor on Sept 28 – 30. The next daily cycle (high) convergence is on Oct 10 – 13 and could time a future peak…
As for Gold, it’s entire decline (since March 8, ’22) has unfolded in a 66 – 69 day/~9.5 week high (3/08) – low (5/16) – low (7/21) Cycle Progression that portends a subsequent low for Sept. 26 – 28 (and then early-Dec ’22 when a ~9.5 month high-high-high-(?? high or low) Cycle Progression recurs; that is also when Gold would have retraced 50% – or 28 months – of its 56-month advance into Aug ‘20).
That could be what allows Silver to enter a second and more substantial advance…
Platinum & Palladium have pulled back with Gold but remain above their early-Sept lows (like Silver) after Platinum fulfilled its own form of a 4-Shadow signal (after its July/Aug rally exceeded the magnitude of the previous rally) and a 12 – 13 week low-low-low-high-high-(low) Cycle Sequence.
If Platinum can rally above – and give a weekly close above – 943.0/PLV it would generate a very positive weekly 21 MAC AND weekly trend signal. It rallied precisely to that resistance this past week – testing its descending weekly 21 High MAC for the third time. With that average now flattening, the potential for a break above it is higher.
Platinum has a good chance of extending this rally into Oct 10 – 14 – the convergence of weekly cycles and wave targets.
Palladium remains positive and could/should spur an overall rally into Oct 7 – ’22.”
Silver is slowly validating what has been discussed throughout this year – that Sept ’22 would usher in the time when Silver begins to overtake Gold and sees stronger rallies due to multiple factors. Silver’s initial intermediate advance is projected to take it up to 22.50/SIZ, but the subsequent action is what could be the most revealing. Both Gold & Silver are setting the stage for a Sept 28 reversal higher and the onset of accelerated rallies into Oct 10 – 14.
How Quickly Can Silver Surge to ~22.50/SIZ? What is Subsequent Upside Target?
What Does (Potential) Shift of Gold/Silver Ratio Portend??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.