Gold/Silver Shift; Accelerated Surge into Oct 10 – 14 Projected (22.50/SIZ Target).
09/30/22 INSIIDE Track – “Gold & Silver are showing some signs of a new rebound with Silver leading the way. This is the time period (beginning in Sept ‘22) when Silver has been forecast to become more of a leader and overtake Gold with respect to its advances.
On a multi-year basis, they remain in a wide range of consolidation that began to take hold after Gold fulfilled projections for a multi-year uptrend from late-2015 into late-2020/early-2021. That was the same time Silver perpetuated its own ~5-year low (2001) – high (2Q ‘06) – high (2Q ‘11) – high (2Q ‘16) – high (2Q ‘21) Cycle Progression.
That fulfilled a diverse array of upside targets, cycle highs and multi-year projections – some that were linked to the culmination of the latest 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars that has governed the USA – and its European predecessors – for many centuries. As a result, the late-’20 Gold peak was/is expected to hold for (at least) 2 – 3 years.
From a price perspective, the early-’22 double top in Gold (retesting its Aug ‘20 peak) fulfilled the final criteria (wave structure) for a larger-magnitude sell-off. … while not violating the Aug ’20 cycle peak. When it surged into Aug ‘20, Gold completed what appeared to be 3 waves (I – III) of a potential 5-wave advance.
That left open the potential for a spike to new highs in 2021/2022 – to complete a textbook 5-wave advance. Gold’s pullback into Mar ‘21, and subsequent double-bottom in late-Sept ’21, reinforced that potential and projected a strong rally into late-Feb ‘22 (later tweaked to early-Mar ‘22). The monthly trend remained positive, identifying that low as a likely wave ‘4’ low while projecting a rally back to the highs (‘5’).
Gold’s surge into early-March ‘22 fulfilled multiple objectives including cycles, this wave objective, and related range-trading targets near 2080/GC (see previous publications for related charts and diagrams). A subsequent peak was projected for mid-April ‘22, after which multi-month cycles would turn down. That was soon confirmed by the weekly trends…
After the March ‘22 peak, Gold declined in a 5-wave sell-off – leading into its July ‘22 low. That indicated another decline should be seen after an intervening rebound. Gold rallied into Aug ‘22 cycles and turned back down. It has since set new intra-year lows…
Silver has had a different structure – originating from its early-’21 peak. It has declined in a fairly clear 3-wave structure (Feb – Sept ‘21 decline, Sept ‘21 – Mar ‘22 rally, Mar – Sept ‘22 decline) – with the initial decline and rebound each containing 3 waves and the subsequent decline possessing 5 (while slightly exceeding the magnitude of the initial decline).
In Elliott Wave terms, that is a classic 3-3-5 corrective (‘a-b-c’) wave… with the ’a’ & ’c’ waves ’tending toward equality’. While I mainly resist diving into the weeds with multiple wave counts, this entire decline (Feb ‘21 – Sept ‘22) could be a larger-degree ‘B’ wave decline of a multi-year, upside ‘A-B-C’ correction, following Silver’s 2011 – 2020 decline.
In other words, if a 1 – 2 year bottom is set near current levels, Silver would likely embark on a new 1 – 2.5-year advance (to be honed later) and ultimately exceed its early-’21 high… but not its 2011 peak. A lot of factors need to corroborate and validate that scenario, so that is where this wave discussion ends.
Gold’s monthly trend pattern and its wave structure (two successive declines of ~7 months each) are arguing for a 1 – 2 month low in this time frame, reinforcing what Silver’s price action has already been showing – as it steadily traces out a bottom and prepares for a larger advance in the coming weeks.
Silver has been bouncing since the first day of September. Gold, in contrast, recently dropped to new lows and gave a weekly & monthly close below 1680/GC – adding credence to the March ‘22 peak…
Gold’s daily cycles argue for at least a 2 – 4 week bottom at this time. It’s entire decline (since March 8, ’22) unfolded in a 66 – 69 day/~9.5 week high (3/08) – low (5/16) – low (7/21) Cycle Progression that projected an ensuing multi-week low for Sept. 26 – 28.
That has begun to take hold and could trigger a quick surge into mid-Oct. The next phase of that ~9.5-week cycle arrives in early-Dec ’22 when the ~9.5 month Cycle Progression also recurs. There are other (previously-described) cycles coming into play in late-’22/early’23… With Silver expected to begin outpacing Gold, those cycles are likely to time divergent highs and lows.
The XAU & HUI have declined since their April ‘22 (multi-month) cycle highs, selling off to their lowest levels since 2Q ’20. In the case of the HUI, it has now matched the duration of its Aug’16 – Sept ’18 decline, dropping from Aug ’20 into Sept ’22.
This reinforces the significance of the April ’22 peaks and the cycles that ushered in those peaks – the latest phases of XAU ~10-month & ~5-month (21 – 23 week) high-high Cycle Progressions. That 5-month cycle inverted and timed a final spike low in mid-to-late-Sept ’22.
Their April ‘22 peaks were also in lockstep with a 29 – 31 week high-high-low-low-(high) Cycle Sequence that helped time most of the primary 3 – 6 month turning points of the past three years. That could produce a multi-week high in Nov ‘22.
That has been corroborated by recent action and would be reinforced if these indexes turn their weekly trends up in October. Initially, they could see a rally into Oct 12 – 18, potentially topping (for a week or two) ~6-months/~180 degrees from the April 18 tops. They have just turned their daily trends up, confirming a multi-week low and projecting add’l upside.
Platinum set a double bottom on Sept 1 in lockstep with a 12 – 13 week low-low-low-high-high-(low) Cycle Sequence. It did that without turning its weekly trend back down, the ideal setup for a multi-month bottom. A weekly close above 935/PLF would turn multiple indicators positive and project a sharp rally.
Palladium spiked lower to begin Sept, perpetuating an ~11-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and corroborating the outlook for a subsequent rally into mid-Oct ‘22.
It has been building a base since June and just triggered bullish weekly 21 MAC signals and triggered an outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher on the Sept 30 close. It has remained in a weekly uptrend since early-Aug and could accelerate higher in the coming weeks.”
Silver is steadily validating what has been discussed throughout this year – that Sept ’22 would usher in the time when Silver begins to overtake Gold (shift in Gold/Silver ratio) and sees stronger rallies due to multiple factors. Silver’s initial intermediate advance is projected to take it up to 22.50/SIZ, but the subsequent action is what could be the most revealing. Both Gold & Silver are setting the stage for accelerated rallies from Sept 28 cycle lows into Oct 10 – 14. The XAU & HUI, Platinum & Palladium all concur.
Can Silver Surge to ~22.50/SIZ in 1 – 2 Weeks? What is Subsequent Upside Target?
What Does (Potential) Shift of Gold/Silver Ratio Portend??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.