Gold/Silver Shift on Track; Silver Poised for Intermediate Low.
10/15/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver neutralized their near-term uptrends, resulting in a deeper correction than anticipated. Secondary lows are likely in the coming days…
Gold & Silver remain above their Sept ’22 lows but have declined farther than what was expected for this latest correction… the daily trends and cycles are still favoring that 1 – 2 month bottoms are in place. While that could quickly change, there are a few things to consider related to recent action…
- First is the ongoing projection for Silver to see a strong surge in Sept ’22, expected to be its largest rally since before the early-Mar ’22 peak.
Silver fulfilled that, surging more than 20% and providing its greatest rally since Feb/Mar ’22. (It also matched the 33-day duration of that previous Feb/Mar ’22 rally.) In the process, however, it closed above its mid-Aug high – signaling that a higher-magnitude rebound was likely unfolding.
Silver was not expected to drop as far as it has but it has not (yet) violated the potential for a ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave pullback before another rally.
- Gold fulfilled a 66 – 69 day/~9.5 week high (3/08) – low (5/16) – low (7/21) – (low; Sept. 26 – 28) Cycle Progression while bottoming in late-Sept ’22. That should spur a ~1-month or longer rally.
- Gold completed successive declines of near equal duration (7 months each) while setting its late-Sept ’22 low. That would also be expected to hold for 1 – 2 months.
- Gold & Silver initially peaked while testing and holding weekly LHR levels (1722.2/GCZ & 21.15/ SIZ) with Gold peaking right at monthly resistance. It has since dropped back to its weekly HLS (1648.6/GCZ) – the extreme downside target for this past week. By holding that level on the close, Gold signals that an intermediate bottom should soon take hold and usher in another multi-week rally.
- Gold’s 4-Shadow Signal of July/Aug ’22 projected a subsequent drop to new lows followed by the largest rally since the Mar ’22 peak. It did drop to new lows and then rallied – matching the magnitude of its July/Aug ’22 rally (in half the time; a possible sign of underlying strength).
While that ushered in a likely time for an initial peak – after seeing matching rallies of ~120.0/GCZ each – the ensuing pullback should be a ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave decline and give way to a rally to new 1 – 2 month highs (to fulfill the 4-Shadow Signal).
- The intra-month downtrends should create an intra-month low around Oct 14/17.
- The daily trends are also arguing for a low on/ around Oct 17/18.
Gold & Silver have corrected lower than expected but remain in congestion, above their Sept ’22 lows.
During the recent sell-off, Gold & Silver have only neutralized their daily uptrends once – maintaining the potential for a secondary low around mid-month – when other technical factors concur.
The XAU & HUI turned their daily trends back down, delaying an additional rally, and are retesting recent support (and the XAU’s range target near 95.00). That negated the potential for any further upside into Oct 18 – proving near-term expectations wrong and focusing attention on Nov 7 – 18, ’22.
The XAU & HUI have perpetuated a 29 – 30 week cycle that is likely to time a subsequent high in the middle portion of Nov ‘22. In the interim, they could stretch a low into Oct 17/18 (inverting that daily cycle) and fulfill a 16 trading-day high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
Platinum & Palladium remain above their early-Sept lows (like Silver) and continue to build bases after Platinum fulfilled a 12 – 13 week low-low-low-high-high-(low) Cycle Sequence at those lows… If Platinum can now give a weekly close above 941.2/PLF, it would generate a very positive weekly 21 MAC AND weekly trend signal. In the interim, a daily close above 941.2/PLF is needed to turn the intra-month trend up and spur additional upside.”
Silver is steadily validating what has been discussed throughout this year – that Sept ’22 would usher in the time when Silver begins to overtake Gold (shift in Gold/Silver ratio) and sees stronger rallies due to multiple factors. Silver’s initial intermediate advance is projected to take it up to 22.50/SIZ with the potential to surge as high as 24.50 – 25.00/SI before the end of 2022. Platinum is showing similar signs of developing strength and should rally into/through November.
What Does (Potential) Shift of Gold/Silver Ratio Portend?
Could Platinum Surge with Silver?
How Does Current Action Corroborate 2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.