Gold, Silver & XAU Set for Mid-May Low; Silver & Platinum Poised to Accelerate Higher!
05-14-25 – “Intra-month trends – up or down – provide a strong indication of what to expect leading into mid-month. That is often when an intra-month extreme – high or low – is set. As with all indicators, it takes synergy to corroborate this tool and increase its effectiveness.
When a market has declined into mid-month, it also has the potential to create an Intra-month V Reversal higher in which an initial high is seen early in the month, an intra-month low is set near mid-month, and a higher intra-month high is set near the end of the month – after a rally from mid-month.
The XAU (Gold & Silver Index) is one market that is providing the potential for this – based on a wealth of corroborating indicators…
From a timing perspective, mid-month (May 14 – 16th) is the fulfillment of a ~38-day low-low-(low) Cycle Progression (and arrives 6 months/180 degrees from the Nov 14, ’24 low in Gold & the XAU/ HUI preliminary low). It is also 3 months/90-degrees from the intervening Feb 14, ’25 peak.
On a 1 – 2-year basis, the XAU has just retraced to its Oct ’24 peak – a level of breakout resistance that is now ‘resistance turned into support’ (~175.00).
At the same time, it has spiked down to its latest weekly HLS level at 175.41/XAU (downside extreme target for this week)… as it nears its rising weekly 21 High MAC. It has done that while retracing 50% (175.71/XAU) of its April surge and 50% (175.12/ XAU) of its broader Feb – April ’25 advance.
At the same time, Gold is now within striking distance of its downside target and the convergence of 3 (out of 4) weekly HLS levels at 3123 – 3169/GCM. And Silver is showing continued resilience, remaining in a relatively tight ~5-week range and holding above its weekly support.
While the drop to these levels does not guarantee a low, or (yet) signal a reversal higher, it is worth monitoring to see if the XAU shows any signs of bottoming near current levels.
There are other markets where this mid-month period could also usher in an intermediate shift…
Gold & Silver are selling off again as Gold fulfills expectations for a ‘c’ wave decline that should drop to or below ~3170/GCM. Gold is now within striking distance of its downside targets and the convergence of 3 (out of 4) weekly HLS levels at 3123 – 3169/GCM. It has now retraced .618 (3176/GCM) of its most recent surge.
Silver is showing continued resilience, remaining in a relatively tight ~5-week range and holding above its weekly support. It would not turn its intra-month trend down until a daily close below 31.86/SIN. As long as that does not occur, Silver could see a new rally in the second half of May ’25.
The XAU & HUI have sold off into mid-month with both indexes dropping to their weekly HLS levels (extreme weekly downside target) and Oct ’24 highs – a pivotal range of multi-week support in both. The XAU needs a daily close above 185.00/XAU to re-enter positive territory.”
Gold & Silver have retreated into mid-May, the ideal time for a multi-week low to take hold. While Gold is correcting from multi-month cycle highs in late-April, Silver is building a base and preparing to surge after fulfilling multi-month cycle lows and downside objectives in early-April. That coincided with the outlook for Platinum & Palladium to enter bullish cycles on April 7 – 11th and surge – on balance – into June ’25.
Recent action also reinforces the 17-Year Cycle impact on Silver and corroborates the outlook for a MAJOR uptrend in white metals following April ’25 cycle lows…
17-Year Cycle & Silver: April ’25 Low
The April ’25 INSIIDE Track detailed why Platinum was/is on the cusp of a Major advance (along with Silver & Palladium), stating: “This could be one of the ‘golden’ (or is that ‘platinum’) trading opportunities of 2025!” The first phase of that was/is expected to be a sharp rally into the next phase of Platinum’s ~5-week cycle on June 9 – 13, ’25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow (into at least 2025/2026 and potentially longer)…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
April 2025 ushered in a new and reinforcing phase of this overall shift and could be the first phase of major rallies in key metals (Platinum & Palladium) and the next phase for Gold & Silver. It also ushered in the time (April – August ’25) when War Cycles could produce some unexpected surprises.
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