Gold, Silver & Stocks Showing Signs of Multi-Week Lows; ‘Statement’ Concurs.
08-23-23 Gold/Silver/XAU: The Time Has Come… & Stocks’ Cycle Low – “Stock Indices sold off to initial downside targets last week, ushering in a decisive time when a multi-week low has been projected. Intermediate cycles, weekly trend patterns and wave structure reinforce that conclusion and argued for (at least) a 1 – 2 week low – ideally on Aug 18 – 22, ’23.
The DJIA (and many other indexes) dropped right to its rising weekly 21 High MAC and closed the week above that ascending support on Aug 18… Not only did it test & hold that 21 High MAC, it also dropped right to its early-May ’23 high – the likely ‘1’ wave peak of a potential 5-wave structure that began with the early-March ’23 low (34,257/DJIA) – while testing and holding its weekly HLS (extreme downside weekly target at 34,335/DJIA).
As previously discussed, it also dropped right to its Jan ’23 high – the opening range that dictates the parameters for the intra-year trend – and closed the week above that trend support. In doing so, it neutralized its weekly uptrend for the second time. That also identified Aug 18 – 25 as the most likely time for a 1 – 2 month low. Other indexes & indicators concur…
The Russell 2000 twice neutralized its weekly uptrend while dropping precisely to 1 – 2 month support at ~1840/QRU. (It would not turn the weekly trend down until a weekly close below 1837/QRU.)
It did that while fulfilling a 21 – 22-week low-low cycle that has governed its action for ~2.5 years. A low at this time would also fulfill an ~11-month high-low-(low) Cycle Progression, similar to the following…
At the same time, the DJTA dropped right to its weekly HLS (extreme weekly downside target) on Aug 18, while attacking its monthly 21 High MAC, monthly support (projected low) & 2nd Close Support and a downside wave target where the latest decline equaled the magnitude of the previous (April ’23) decline. It was the ideal setup for (at least) a multi-week bottom.
It did that while fulfilling a ~47-week/~11-month high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression, reinforcing the potential for at least a multi-week low on Aug 18/21… Looking out over the next ~month, the DJIA still has an intermediate cycle arguing for a multi-week peak in mid-Sept ’23.
Most recently, it spiked higher on Aug 1/2 – fulfilling a ~1.5-month low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a series of ~3-month (90-degree) moves from successive highs on Nov 1/2, Feb 1 & May 1, ’23. The next phase of that cycle, when a future high is expected, is in mid-Sept ’23…
Gold & Silver remain in multi-month corrections from their cycle highs on May 3 – 5. Those highs fulfilled multi-month Cycle Progressions and were projected to usher in a corrective phase that should lead to a subsequent multi-month low (the expected completion of a ~3.5-month decline) on Aug 14 – 25, ’23.
A secondary peak arrived in mid-July, fulfilling a ~3-month/~90-degree Silver cycle from its mid-April & mid-Jan ’23 highs. Those highs were preceded by lows in mid-Oct & mid-July ’22… and a high in mid-April ’22… a consistent string of ~3-month turning points that preceded multi-week declines.
The mid-July ’23 high fulfilled a ~3-month/~90-degree low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and projects another high in mid-Oct ’23. The midpoint of that cycle was/is projected to produce an intervening peak, after an initial surge, in xxxx ’23.
That dovetails with the next phase of an overlapping ~4-month/17 – 18-week low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and the midpoint of its over-arching ~8-month/35 – 37-week low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that projects a future peak in Jan ’24 – peaking on xxxx ’23.
In the midst of these cycle highs, Gold & Silver fulfilled the latest phase of a consistent 22 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-low-(
That dovetailed with Silver’s weekly HLS indicator, projecting a (minimum) 1 – 2 month low by/on Aug 18, ‘23. Silver fulfilled that and projected a sharp rally from its mid-Aug ’23 low into (initially) early-Sept ‘23. That recent decline fulfilled two critical indicators that reinforced analysis for a multi-month low…
- Those new lows fulfilled the minimum necessary for a ‘c’ wave decline (a-b-c correction from early-May ’23 cycle high) after both metals completed 5-wave advances from late-2022 into early-March ’23.
That powerfully corroborates the overall 2023/2024 outlook!
- The new lows fulfilled the weekly downtrend patterns in both metals… During the rallies into mid-July, Gold failed to neutralize its weekly downtrend as Silver twice neutralized its weekly downtrend but failed to turn it up. Both patterns argued for a drop back to the late-June ’23 lows, with Silver signaling a retest of its lows would likely create a bottom.
Silver barely spiked below its late-June low, showing some resilience on a 1 – 2 month basis. At the same time, Gold dropped right to its Jan ’23 low (~1914/GCZ) – pivotal support for the intra-year trend. In doing so, Gold also fulfilled its May – July ’23 HHL – projecting a drop to ~1925/GCZ.
All of those factors reinforced the outlook for a multi-week low, ideally on August 17/18, ’23.
Looking ahead, the focus remains on the potential for a future, more significant peak in late-Oct/early-Nov ‘23 – the next phase of a consistent ~9.5-month cycle that timed the March ‘22 peak and then the early-Jan ‘23 peak. It would also fulfill an over-arching ~19-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver & complete a ~1-year/~360-degree advance in Gold.
The early-May ‘23 peak created a corroborating ~6-month/~180-degree low (early-Nov ‘22) – high (early-May ‘23) – high (early-Nov ‘23) Cycle Progression. As discussed the past couple months, the ideal time for an accelerated rally is xxxx – xxxx ’23, due to key cycles and the weekly 21 MARC. That could/should begin in xxxx.
The XAU & HUI are fulfilling analysis for multi-month lows as the HUI projected a low by/on Aug 17/18, ’23 – fulfilling a 22 – 23-week high (Nov 15-22, ’21) – high (Apr 18-25, ’22) – low (Sept 19-26, ‘22) – low (Feb 24-Mar 9, ’23) – (low; Aug 4 – 18, ’23) Cycle Progression – while the XAU projected a low on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (based on related cycles).
Both set low closes on Aug 18, ’23!
Both indexes remain in monthly uptrends, reinforcing the potential for a new multi-month rally in Sept/Oct ’23, beginning at/after those August 18, ’23 lows.
Both attacked & held their 2 – 4 month primary downside targets – the 4th wave of lesser degree support – at ~110 – 112/XAU & ~210 – 214/HUI – and have since signaled multi-week lows.
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Gold & Silver fulfilled the ~3-month projection (since 3 – 6 month cycle highs in early-May ’23) for an overall decline into August 17 – 24 when the next projected multi-month low has been forecast to take hold. A myriad of weekly & monthly cycle lows are now converging and ushering in a unique period of time – in the markets and geopolitically from this point forward.
Geopolitical cycles on Aug 22 – 24, ’23 may have just been fulfilled (when Vladimir Putin is projected to ‘make a statement’ with some sort of action that alters the landscape moving forward and starts the clock ticking on a more significant event leading into future cycle highs) and could help support an initial rally.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! The XAU & HUI were also projected to set decisive lows on Aug 17 – 21, ’23 – which appears to have taken hold.
Where are Metals Likely to Rally to – into Oct/Nov ’23?
Will Geopolitical ‘Statement’ (Aug 22 – 24, ’23) Help Spur Initial Rally!
How Could Unfolding Gold/Silver Low (Aug 14 – 25, ‘23) Corroborate 2024/25 Outlook?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.