Gold & Silver Trading: Feb. 20 = ‘Textbook Setup’ for Multi-Month Peak. Correction into Mid-April Likely!
Gold & Silver Trading: Feb. 20 = ‘Textbook Setup’ for Multi-Month Peak. Correction into Mid-April Likely!
02/28/19 INSIIDE Track:
Gold & Silver provided a textbook setup for a multi-month peak, leading into decisive cycle highs on Feb. 19 – 22. They fulfilled most or all of what had been expected from this initial 3 – 6 month uptrend and punctuated that with a divergent peak while fulfilling a myriad of weekly cycles.
Since early-2018, Gold has been forecast to set a (comparable) multi-month peak during the next phase of the 55 – 59 week cycle – in late-Feb./early-March 2019. That was the same cycle (along with its related 27 – 29 week cycle) that precisely timed the late-Jan. ’18 peak.
Gold dropped into mid-Aug. ‘18 – the subsequent phase of that 27 – 29 week cycle and the midpoint of the 55 – 59 week high-high cycle – corroborating those cycles and increasing the likelihood for a strong advance into this time frame.
As its rally unfolded (and even before then), Gold reinforced those cycles with related 13 – 14 week and then 6 – 7 week cycles – both projected to set a 1 – 2 month peak on Feb. 19 – 26, 2019 (while converging with the 27 – 29 & 55 – 59 week cycles). They surged into Feb. 20, attacking weekly extreme upside targets and monthly projected highs.
That fulfilled the final criteria needed to usher in a much sharper correction that could easily see Gold drop to 1270.0/GCJ and Silver drop below 15.000/SIH. (Based on Silver’s weekly trend pattern – which was unable to turn positive during the rally into Feb. 20 – it could even retest its Nov. ’18 low before the next bottom forms. Price action will filter that.)
On Feb. 25, both metals entered a very dangerous period – until March 4 – when the inversely-correlated daily 21 MARCs would surge (increasing the likelihood for sharp declines following their peaks). That overall period should powerfully validate the cycle highs just attained, the extreme upside targets reached, and expectations for a sharp correction to follow.
As illustrated in the Cycle Progression for Silver, its next low could wait until April ’19 – the same time that major cycles in Platinum bottom. Depending on what Gold does between now and then, particularly the action of its weekly trend, it could then rally into June/July ‘19 – the next phase of a 17 – 18 month high-high cycle that has timed five successive highs, including the July ‘16 & Jan, ‘18 peaks.
The action leading into Feb. 20 triggered a new sell signal for 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month traders to exit more longs and look for a sharp correction…
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month traders & investors could have been in long Gold positions (futures, cash, ETFs, etc.) from ~1200.0 down to 1186/GC, since late-Sept., and be holding 1/3 of these w/avg. open gains of about $12,000/contract (in futures).
The first 1/3 should have been exited in late-Jan. around 1320/GCJ w/avg. gains of about $12,500/contract. The second 1/3 should have been exited on Feb. 21 w/avg. gains of about $13,000/contract. The final 1/3 should be exited on a weekly close below 1305.0/GCJ. If that is triggered on March 1, look to re-enter long positions below 1260.0/GCJ.
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in Silver (futures, cash, ETFs, etc.) in late-Nov. at ~14.40 and be holding 1/3 of these w/avg. open gains of about $5,500/contract (in futures).
The first 1/3 should have been exited in late-Jan. around 15.90/SIH w/avg. gains of about $7,500/contract. The second 1/3 should have been exited on Feb. 21 around 15.90/SIH w/avg. gains of about $7,500/contract. Exit the final 1/3 on a weekly close below 15.445/SIH. If this is triggered on March 1, wait until a retest of the lows to re-enter longs.
The XAU, as described in ‘Gold & Silver 2019 – Cycle Crescendo?’, surged into Feb. 20 and tested its monthly projected high, resistance, and 21 High MAC while fulfilling weekly cycles (and daily cycles that converged on Feb. 20/21). That also fulfilled a primary wave target, completing the third consecutive advance (since Sept. ’18) of 11 – 12.00 points.
With its test of 80.42 – 80.50, the XAU ushered in an intermediate peak that should spur a sharp correction into mid-March – the next phase of a ~2-month/~9-week high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. Initial support (and the minimum downside target) comes into play at 72.22 – 72.85with more significant support at ~68.00/XAU.
Long-term cycles continue to project the next multi-year peak in late-2020/early-2021. The greatest synergy of cycles occurs in 4Q 2020. That includes a recurring ~5-year cycle that dates back to early-1996 and a ~10-year low (4Q ‘00) – high (4Q ‘10) – high (4Q ‘20) Cycle Progression.
On a 1 – 2 year basis, ~xxx.x/XAU is developing as the primary (initial) upside target for that time frame. However, the XAU needs a monthly close above xx.xx to validate that scenario…
Copper continues to surge, beginning the year by retesting its Aug. ’18 low (fulfilling its weekly trend pattern) and perpetuating a 20-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a 15-week high-high-(low) Cycle Progression – both on Jan. 2 – 4, 2019. That bottom triggered a new 2 – 3 month advance.
From a broader perspective, that reinforced the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (~2.4500/HG) that had been forecast (in 2Q & 3Q ’18) to produce the next 6 – 12 month bottom and usher in a rally back to its high (~3.3000/HG).
It has just reached its monthly LHR at ~2.9700/ HGH (extreme upside target for Feb. ’19) and should find decisive resistance around 3.0000/HGH– where several previous lows were set (support turned into resistance). That increases the potential for a multi-week peak to begin the month of March – perpetuating geometric cycles (180 degrees from Sept. 4 low, 90 degrees from Dec. 3 high and 60 degrees from Jan. 3 low). A 1 – 2 week pullback should take hold.”
Gold & Silver are confirming reversals lower after fulfilling multi-month, multi-week & multi-day cycle highs AND attacking extreme upside price targets. They have entered dangerous period and could corroborate that with Feb. 28 closing levels. This action reinforces analysis for a ~2-month correction into April 2019.
Why Does Daily 21 MARC Project Initial Bearish Period into March 4?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.